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Levin, Todd

Publications and source records attributed to Levin, Todd.

33 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Who is marginalized in energy justice? Amplifying community leader perspectives of energy transitions in Ghana

There is a divide in energy access studies, between technologically-focused modeling papers in engineering and economics, and energy justice frameworks and principles grounded in social sciences. Quantitative computational models are necessary when analyzing energy, and more specifically electricity, systems, as they are technologically-complex systems that can diverge from intuitive patterns. To assure energy justice, these models must be reflective of, and informative to, a wide range of stakeholders, including households and communities alongside utilities, governments, and others. Yet, moving from a qualitative understanding of preferences to quantitative modeling is challenging. In this perspective piece, we pilot the use of the value-focused thinking framework to inform stakeholder engagement. The result is a strategic objective hierarchy that highlights the tradeoffs and the social, economic and technological factors that need to be measured in models. We apply the process in Ghana, using a survey, stakeholder workshops, and follow-up interviews to uncover key tradeoffs and stakeholder-derived objectives. We discuss three key areas that have been rarely, if ever, well-represented in energy models: (1) the relationship between the dynamics of electricity end-use and the technology and economic structure of the system; (2) explicit tradeoffs between electricity access, cost, and reliability as defined by stakeholders; and (3) the definition of new objectives, such as minimizing hazards related to theft. We conclude that this model of engagement provides an opportunity to tie together rigorous qualitative analysis and stakeholder engagement with crucial quantitative models of the electricity system.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Pumped Storage Hydropower FAST Commissioning Technical Analysis

This report is designed to address barriers and solutions to modern pumped storage hydropower (PSH) development by establishing baseline project development knowledge, defining key aspects of project development, and identifying opportunities to reduce project timelines, costs, and risks. This report’s scope includes post-licensing activities and excludes factors related to permitting or licensing. The U.S. PSH fleet is composed of 43 projects providing the majority (95%) of utility-scale electricity storage in the US. However, only one new PSH facility has become operational in the past 20 years. Several factors contribute to diminishing PSH growth in the US, including the magnitude of project costs and financing interest during development and construction; the length of time from project investment until project revenue; permitting challenges and construction risks; competition from other storage technologies; and unrecognized energy storage valuation. Although innovative PSH concepts (including underground, small, and modular systems) have been investigated, widespread application has yet to occur. In short, the time, cost, and risk associated with modern PSH development has resulted in limited recent growth in the United States, despite the rising energy storage demand from increased deployment of variable renewable technologies. To address these challenges, the US Department of Energy’s (DOE) Water Power Technologies Office initiated the PSH Furthering Advancements to Shorten Time to (FAST) Commissioning project, aimed at catalyzing new solutions, designs, and strategies to accelerate PSH development. This report uses available data from previous license applications, ongoing project cost data, and other global PSH project information based on a typical closed-loop PSH project.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Load Factor and Unserved Energy Webinar

This presentation consists of slides from a webinar given on October 25, 2019. The slides give an overview of load factor forecasting and how it can be incorporated into energy and power demand forecasts, with a special eye towards accounting for unserved energy. It includes case studies from other countries, highlighting how load factor is used in their individual load forecasts. The slides then review and compare various load forecasts for Pakistan's electricity grid.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2019

Impacts of variable renewable energy on wholesale markets and generating assets in the United States: A review of expectations and evidence

Here, we synthesize available literature, data, and analysis on the degree to which growth in variable renewable energy (VRE) has impacted or might in the future impact bulk power system assets, pricing, and costs in the United States. Most studies of future scenarios indicate that VRE reduces wholesale energy prices and capacity factors of thermal generators. Traditional baseload generators are more exposed to these changing market conditions than low-capital cost and more flexible intermediate and peak-load generators. From analysis of historical data we find that VRE is already influencing the bulk power market through changes in temporal and geographic patterns areas with higher levels of VRE. The most significant observed impacts have concentrated in areas with significant VRE and/or nuclear generation along with limited transmission, with negative pricing also often occurring during periods with lower system-wide load. So far, however, VRE, has had a relatively modest impact on historical average annual wholesale prices across entire market regions, at least in comparison to other drivers. The reduction of natural gas prices is the primary contributor to the decline in wholesale prices since 2008. Similarly, VRE impacts on thermal plant retirements have been limited and there is little relationship between the location of recent retirements and VRE penetration levels. Finally, although impacts on wholesale prices have been modest so far, impacts of VRE on the electricity market will be more significant under higher VRE penetrations.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2019

Resource Adequacy in Electricity Markets With Renewable Energy

This paper presents a market-based resource adequacy assessment framework to analyze the system generation portfolio that results in a competitive market environment. In particular, we apply the modeling framework to investigate the impact of high penetration levels of variable renewable energy resources and different market designs on achieving resource adequacy. The model captures the strategic capacity investment and retirement decision-making of profit-maximizing generation companies. In contrast to many previous studies, this paper considers markets for capacity, energy, and reserve products in detail; thus, the modeling framework allows improved analysis of generation expansion and revenue sufficiency in a competitive market environment. The modeling framework is based on Stackelberg leader-follower games and is formulated as a bi-level optimization problem, which is then transformed into a mathematical program with equilibrium constraints. Furthermore, we employ a Lagrangian decomposition algorithm to enhance computational performance. In a case study of the electric reliability council of texas (ERCOT) system, we compare the results from the proposed model with those obtained from a traditional centralized least-cost planning model. Finally, the results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed modeling framework and highlight the importance of considering strategic behavior in a competitive market framework when assessing resource adequacy.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2019

The long-term impacts of carbon and variable renewable energy policies on electricity markets

We present a computationally-efficient optimization model that finds the least-cost generation unit expansion, commitment, and dispatch plan to serve hourly electricity demand and ancillary service requirements. We apply the model to a case study based on data from the electricity market in Texas (ERCOT) to analyze the market and investment impacts of several incentive mechanisms that support variable renewable energy (VRE) investments and carbon emission reductions. In contrast to many previous studies, the model determines least-cost VRE investments under different cost and incentive assumptions rather than analyzing scenarios where VRE expansion is pre-determined. We find that electricity prices can vary significantly under different incentive mechanisms, even when comparable generation portfolios result. Therefore, the preferred incentive mechanism depends on stakeholder objectives as well as the prevailing electricity market framework. Our results indicate that a carbon tax is more system cost-efficient for reducing emissions, while production and investment tax credits are more system cost-efficient for increasing VRE investments. Similarly, incentive mechanisms that reduce electricity prices may increase the need for separate revenue sufficiency mechanisms (e.g. a capacity market) more than a policy that increases electricity prices. Moreover, the impacts on consumer payments are not always aligned with changes in system costs. Overall, the analysis illustrates the importance of considering electricity market impacts in assessing the economic efficiency of VRE and carbon incentive mechanisms.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2018

Prices in Frequency Regulation Markets: Impacts of Natural Gas Prices and Variable Renewable Energy

Increasing wind and solar penetration and low natural gas prices have reduced electricity prices in competitive power markets in recent years, while also increasing the relative importance of ancillary services in balancing short-term net load variability. As a result, ancillary service markets are providing a valuable alternative revenue stream for many market participants. Yet the price dynamics in these markets are still not very well understood. In this work, we incorporate unit-level ancillary service offer prices and quantities into a production cost model and examine how prices for frequency regulation are impacted by relatively extreme perturbations of several system parameters. Initial offers are first estimated on the basis of limited available public data and are then iteratively calibrated against historic market outcomes. Through a case study of the PJM Interconnection, we find that doubling the natural gas price increases the average annual regulation price by 36%, while replacing all coal generation with natural gas decreases the average price by 42%. Increasing the wind penetration from 2% to 30% in isolation increases the average regulation price by 32%, while further doubling the regulation requirement results in an 84% increase. These price increases can be mitigated by introducing additional battery storage capacity or by increasing offer quantities from hydro and thermal units. Finally, we discuss a number of modeling challenges that are faced when incorporating ancillary services into traditional production cost models. These include poor data availability, inconsistent product definitions across markets, and complex market rules.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2018

Overview of Wholesale Electricity Markets

This chapter provides a comprehensive review of four key electricity markets: energy markets (day-ahead and real-time markets); ancillary service markets; financial transmission rights markets; capacity markets. It also discusses how the outcomes of each of these markets may be impacted by the introduction of high penetrations of variable generation. Furthermore, the chapter examines considerations needed to ensure that wholesale market designs are inclusive of emerging technologies, such as demand response, distributed generation, and distributed storage.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2018

Incentivizing Flexibility in System Operations

Defining flexibility has been a challenge that a number of industry members and researchers have attempted to address in recent years. With increased variability and uncertainty of variable generation (VG), the resources on the system will have to be more flexible to adjust output, so that power output ranges, power ramp rates, and energy duration sustainability are sufficient to meet the needs of balancing supply with demand at various operational timescales. This chapter discusses whether existing market designs provide adequate incentives for resources to offer their flexibility into the market to meet the increased levels of variability and uncertainty introduced by VG in the short-term operational time frame. It presents a definition of flexibility and discusses how increased levels of VG require increased needs for flexibility on power systems. Following this introductory material, the chapter examines how existing market designs ensure that resources have the right incentives to provide increased flexibility, and then discusses a number of emerging market design elements that impact flexibility incentives.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2018

Long-Term Resource Adequacy, Long-Term Flexibility Requirements, and Revenue Sufficiency

Variable generation (VG) can reduce market prices over time and also the energy that other suppliers can sell in the market. The suppliers that are needed to provide capacity and flexibility to meet the long-term reliability requirements may, therefore, earn less revenue. This chapter discusses the topics of resource adequacy and revenue sufficiency - that is, determining and acquiring the quantity of capacity that will be needed at some future date and ensuring that those suppliers that offer the capacity receive sufficient revenue to recover their costs. The focus is on the investment time horizon and the installation of sufficient generation capability. First, the chapter discusses resource adequacy, including newer methods of determining adequacy metrics. The chapter then focuses on revenue sufficiency and how suppliers have sufficient opportunity to recover their total costs. The chapter closes with a description of the mechanisms traditionally adopted by electricity markets to mitigate the issues of resource adequacy and revenue sufficiency and discusses the most recent market design changes to address these issues.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2018

Capacity market design and renewable energy: Performance incentives, qualifying capacity, and demand curves

A review of capacity markets in the United States in the context of increasing levels of variable renewable energy finds substantial differences with respect to incentives for operational performance, methods to calculate qualifying capacity for variable renewable energy and energy storage, and demand curves for capacity. The review also reveals large differences in historical capacity market clearing prices. The authors conclude that electricity market design must continue to evolve to achieve cost-effective policies for resource adequacy.

Byers, Conleigh↗
DOE OSTI2017

Impacts of Variable Renewable Energy on Bulk Power System Assets, Pricing, and Costs

We synthesize available literature, data, and analysis on the degree to which growth in variable renewable energy (VRE) has impacted to date or might in the future impact bulk power system assets, pricing, and costs. We do not analyze impacts on specific power plants, instead focusing on national and regional system-level trends. The issues addressed are highly context dependent—affected by the underlying generation mix of the system, the amount of wind and solar penetration, and the design and structure of the bulk power system in each region. Moreover, analyzing the impacts of VRE on the bulk power system is a complex area of research and there is much more to be done to increase understanding of how VRE impacts the dynamics of current and future electricity markets. While more analysis is warranted, including additional location-specific assessments, several high-level findings emerge from this synthesis: -VRE Is Already Impacting the Bulk Power Market -VRE Impacts on Average Wholesale Prices Have Been Modest -VRE Impacts on Power Plant Retirements Have So Far Been Limited -VRE Impacts on the Bulk Power Market will Grow with Penetration -The ’System Value’ of VRE will Decline with Penetration -Power System Flexibility Can Reduce the Rate of VRE Value Decline All generation types are unique in some respect—bringing benefits and challenges to the power system—and wholesale markets, industry investments, and operational procedures have evolved over time to manage the characteristics of a changing generation fleet. With increased VRE penetrations, power system planners, operators, regulators, and policymakers will continue to be challenged to develop methods to smoothly and cost-effectively manage the reliable integration of these new and growing sources of electricity supply.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2017

Electricity End Uses, Energy Efficiency, and Distributed Energy Resources Baseline

This report was developed by a team of analysts at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, with Argonne National Laboratory contributing the transportation section, and is a DOE EPSA product and part of a series of “baseline” reports intended to inform the second installment of the Quadrennial Energy Review (QER 1.2). QER 1.2 provides a comprehensive review of the nation’s electricity system and cover the current state and key trends related to the electricity system, including generation, transmission, distribution, grid operations and planning, and end use. The baseline reports provide an overview of elements of the electricity system. This report focuses on end uses, electricity consumption, electric energy efficiency, distributed energy resources (DERs) (such as demand response, distributed generation, and distributed storage), and evaluation, measurement, and verification (EM&V) methods for energy efficiency and DERs.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2017

Commercial Midstream Energy Efficiency Incentive Programs: Guidelines for Future Program Design, Implementation, and Evaluation

Many electric utilities operate energy efficiency incentive programs that encourage increased dissemination and use of energy-efficient (EE) products in their service territories. The programs can be segmented into three broad categories—downstream incentive programs target product end users, midstream programs target product distributors, and upstream programs target product manufacturers. Traditional downstream programs have had difficulty engaging Small Business/Small Portfolio (SBSP) audiences, and an opportunity exists to expand Commercial Midstream Incentive Programs (CMIPs) to reach this market segment instead.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗