The response of tropical cyclone hazard to natural and forced patterns of warming
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Lin, Jonathan↗
Engineering topics
Lin, Jonathan
Publications and source records attributed to Lin, Jonathan.
Poleward Migration of the Latitude of Maximum Tropical Cyclone Intensity—Forced or Natural?
Abstract Past studies have shown a significant observed poleward trend in the latitude at which tropical cyclones reach their lifetime maximum intensity (LMI), especially in the northwest Pacific basin. Given the brevity of the historical record, it remains difficult to separate the forced trend from internal variability of the climate system. A recently developed tropical cyclone downscaling model is used to downscale the Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2), preindustrial control simulation. It is found that the observed trend in the latitude at which tropical cyclones reach their LMI in the northwest Pacific is very unlikely to be caused by internal variability. The same downscaling model is then used to downscale CESM2 simulations under historical forcing. The resulting trend distribution shows a significant poleward migration of tropical cyclone LMI even after regressing out both natural variability and the part of the forced warming pattern that projects onto natural variability. The results indicate that the observed poleward migration of the latitude at which tropical cyclones reach their LMI in the northwest Pacific basin is likely to be, at least in part, forced. However, the magnitude of the projected poleward trend in climate models can be significantly modulated by the simulated spatial pattern of ocean warming. This highlights how discrepancies between models and observations, with regard to projected changes to the equatorial zonal sea surface temperature gradient under anthropogenic forcing, can lead to large uncertainties in projected changes to the LMI latitude of tropical cyclones. Significance Statement Observations in the northwest Pacific basin show that the latitude at which tropical cyclones are at their most intense has been trending northward in the recent half century. These changes are important since tropical cyclones could bring hazardous weather to coastal areas that are poorly equipped to handle them. Here, we show that natural variations in Earth’s climate are very unlikely to explain the observed poleward trend in the latitude that tropical cyclone reach their maximum intensity. We find that it is much more likely that the observed trend is forced by human-related emissions, though the spatial pattern of warming in response to greenhouse emissions can have significant impacts on the magnitude of the trend.
Lin, Jonathan↗
Direct current injection and thermocapillary flow for purification of aligned arrays of single-walled carbon nanotubes
Aligned arrays of semiconducting single-walled carbon nanotubes (s-SWNTs) represent ideal configurations for use of this class of material in high performance electronics. Development of means for removing the metallic SWNTs (m-SWNTs) in as-grown arrays represents an essential challenge. Here, we introduce a simple scheme that achieves this type of purification using direct, selective current injection through interdigitated electrodes into the m-SWNTs, to allow their complete removal using processes of thermocapillarity and dry etching. Experiments and numerical simulations establish the fundamental aspects that lead to selectivity in this process, thereby setting design rules for optimization. Single-step purification of arrays that include thousands of SWNTs demonstrates the effectiveness and simplicity of the procedures. The result is a practical route to large-area aligned arrays of purely s-SWNTs with low-cost experimental setups.
71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗