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Lin, Xin

Publications and source records attributed to Lin, Xin.

Overview of recent experimental results on the EAST Tokamak

Since the last IAEA-FEC in 2021, significant progress on the development of long pulse steady state scenario and its related key physics and technologies have been achieved, including the reproducible 403 s long-pulse steady-state H-mode plasma with pure radio frequency (RF) power heating. A thousand-second time scale (~1056 s) fully non-inductive plasma with high injected energy up to 1.73 GJ has also been achieved. The EAST operational regime of high β P has been significantly extended (H 98y2 > 1.3, β P ~ 4.0, β N ~ 2.4 and n e /n GW ~ 1.0) using RF and neutral beam injection (NBI). The full edge localized mode suppression using the n = 4 resonant magnetic perturbations has been achieved in ITER-like standard type-I ELMy H-mode plasmas with q 95 ≈ 3.1 on EAST, extrapolating favorably to the ITER baseline scenario. The sustained large ELM control and stable partial detachment have been achieved with Ne seeding. The underlying physics of plasma-beta effect for error field penetration, where toroidal effect dominates, is disclosed by comparing the results in cylindrical theory and MARS-Q simulation in EAST. Breakdown and plasma initiation at low toroidal electric fields (<0.3 V m -1 ) with EC pre-ionization is developed. A beneficial role on the lower hybrid wave injection to control the tungsten concentration in the NBI discharge is observed for the first time in EAST suggesting a potential way toward steady-state H-mode NBI operation.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY

The Impact of Assimilating Precipitation-affected Radiance on Cloud and Precipitation in Goddard WRF-EDAS Analyses

High-frequency TMI and AMSR-E radiances, which are sensitive to precipitation over land, are assimilated into the Goddard Weather Research and Forecasting Model- Ensemble Data Assimilation System (WRF-EDAS) for a few heavy rain events over the continental US. Independent observations from surface rainfall, satellite IR brightness temperatures, as well as ground-radar reflectivity profiles are used to evaluate the impact of assimilating rain-sensitive radiances on cloud and precipitation within WRF-EDAS. The evaluations go beyond comparisons of forecast skills and domain-mean statistics, and focus on studying the cloud and precipitation features in the jointed rainradiance and rain-cloud space, with particular attentions on vertical distributions of height-dependent cloud types and collective effect of cloud hydrometers. Such a methodology is very helpful to understand limitations and sources of errors in rainaffected radiance assimilations. It is found that the assimilation of rain-sensitive radiances can reduce the mismatch between model analyses and observations by reasonably enhancing/reducing convective intensity over areas where the observation indicates precipitation, and suppressing convection over areas where the model forecast indicates rain but the observation does not. It is also noted that instead of generating sufficient low-level warmrain clouds as in observations, the model analysis tends to produce many spurious upperlevel clouds containing small amount of ice water content. This discrepancy is associated with insufficient information in ice-water-sensitive radiances to address the vertical distribution of clouds with small amount of ice water content. Such a problem will likely be mitigated when multi-channel multi-frequency radiances/reflectivity are assimilated over land along with sufficiently accurate surface emissivity information to better constrain the vertical distribution of cloud hydrometers.

WRF-EDAS Analyses

Estimation of Rain Intensity Spectra over the Continental US Using Ground Radar-Gauge Measurements

A high-resolution surface rainfall product is used to estimate rain characteristics over the continental US as a function of rain intensity. By defining each data at 4-km horizontal resolutions and 1-h temporal resolutions as an individual precipitating/nonprecipitating sample, statistics of rain occurrence and rain volume including their geographical and seasonal variations are documented. Quantitative estimations are also conducted to evaluate the impact of missing light rain events due to satellite sensors' detection capabilities. It is found that statistics of rain characteristics have large seasonal and geographical variations across the continental US. Although heavy rain events (> 10 mm/hr.) only occupy 2.6% of total rain occurrence, they may contribute to 27% of total rain volume. Light rain events (< 1.0 mm/hr.), occurring much more frequently (65%) than heavy rain events, can also make important contributions (15%) to the total rain volume. For minimum detectable rain rates setting at 0.5 and 0.2 mm/hr which are close to sensitivities of the current and future space-borne precipitation radars, there are about 43% and 11% of total rain occurrence below these thresholds, and they respectively represent 7% and 0.8% of total rain volume. For passive microwave sensors with their rain pixel sizes ranging from 14 to 16 km and the minimum detectable rain rates around 1 mm/hr., the missed light rain events may account for 70% of train occurrence and 16% of rain volume. Statistics of rain characteristics are also examined on domains with different temporal and spatial resolutions. Current issues in estimates of rain characteristics from satellite measurements and model outputs are discussed.

Lin, Xin

A Multiscale Modeling System: Developments, Applications, and Critical Issues

The foremost challenge in parameterizing convective clouds and cloud systems in large-scale models are the many coupled dynamical and physical processes that interact over a wide range of scales, from microphysical scales to the synoptic and planetary scales. This makes the comprehension and representation of convective clouds and cloud systems one of the most complex scientific problems in Earth science. During the past decade, the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Cloud System Study (GCSS) has pioneered the use of single-column models (SCMs) and cloud-resolving models (CRMs) for the evaluation of the cloud and radiation parameterizations in general circulation models (GCMs; e.g., GEWEX Cloud System Science Team 1993). These activities have uncovered many systematic biases in the radiation, cloud and convection parameterizations of GCMs and have led to the development of new schemes (e.g., Zhang 2002; Pincus et al, 2003; Zhang and Wu 2003; Wu et al. 2003; Liang and Wu 2005; Wu and Liang 2005, and others). Comparisons between SCMs and CRMs using the same large-scale forcing derived from field campaigns have demonstrated that CRMs are superior to SCMs in the prediction of temperature and moisture tendencies (e.g., Das et al. 1999; Randall et al 2003b; Xie et al. 2005).

Tao, Wei-Kuo

Variational Assimilation of Global Microwave Rainfall Retrievals: Physical and Dynamical Impact on GEOS Analyses and Forecasts

Global microwave rainfall retrievals from a 5-satellite constellation, including TMI from TRMM, SSWI from DMSP F13, F14 and F15, and AMSR-E from EOS-AQUA, are assimilated into the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Data Assimilation System (DAS) using a 1-D variational continuous assimilation (VCA) algorithm. The physical and dynamical impact of rainfall assimilation on GEOS analyses and forecasts is examined at various temporal and spatial scales. This study demonstrates that the 1-D VCA algorithm, which was originally developed and evaluated for rainfall assimilations over tropical oceans, can effectively assimilate satellite microwave rainfall retrievals and improve GEOS analyses over both the Tropics and the extratropics where the atmospheric processes are dominated by different large-scale dynamics and moist physics, and also over the land, where rainfall estimates from passive microwave radiometers are believed to be less accurate. Results show that rainfall assimilation renders the GEOS analysis physically and dynamically more consistent with the observed precipitation at the monthly-mean and 6-hour time scales. Over regions where the model precipitation tends to misbehave in distinctly different rainy regimes, the 1-D VCA algorithm, by compensating for errors in the model s moist time-tendency in a 6-h analysis window, is able to bring the rainfall analysis closer to the observed. The radiation and cloud fields also tend to be in better agreement with independent satellite observations in the rainfall-assimilation m especially over regions where rainfall analyses indicate large improvements. Assimilation experiments with and without rainfall data for a midlatitude frontal system clearly indicates that the GEOS analysis is improved through changes in the thermodynamic and dynamic fields that respond to the rainfall assimilation. The synoptic structures of temperature, moisture, winds, divergence, and vertical motion, as well as vorticity are more realistically captured across the front. Short-term forecasts using initial conditions assimilated with rainfall data also show slight improvements. 1

Lin, Xin

A Coupled GCM-Cloud Resolving Modeling System to Study Precipitation Processes

Recent GEWEX Cloud System Study (GCSS) model comparison projects have indicated that cloud resolving models (CRMs) agree with observations better than traditional single column models in simulating various types of clouds and cloud systems from different geographic locations. Current and future NASA satellite programs can provide cloud, precipitation, aerosol and other data at very fine spatial and temporal scales. It requires a coupled global circulation model (GCM) and cloud-scale model (termed a super-parameterization or multi-scale modeling framework, MMF) to use these satellite data to improve the understanding of the physical processes that are responsible for the variation in global and regional climate and hydrological systems. The use of a GCM will enable global coverage and the use of a CRM will allow for better and more sophisticated physical parameterization. NASA Satellite and field campaign cloud related data sets can provide initial conditions as well as validation for both the MMF and CRMs. Also we have implemented a Land Information System (LIS that includes the CLM and NOAH land surface models into the MMF. The Goddard MMF is based on the 2D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model and the Goddard finite volume general circulation model (fvGCM) This modeling system has been applied and tested its performance for two different climate scenarios, El Nino (1998) and La Nina (1999). The coupled new modeling system produced more realistic propagation and intensity of tropical rainfall systems and intraseasonal oscillations, and diurnal variation of precipitation that are very difficult to forecast using even the state-of-the-art GCMs. In this talk I will present: (1) a brief review on GCE model and its applications on precipitation processes (both Microphysical and land processes) and (2) The Goddard MMF and the Major difference between two existing MMFs (CSU MMF and Goddard MMF) and preliminary results (the comparison with traditional GCMs).

Tao, Wei-Kuo

A View of Hurricane Katrina with Early 2lSt Century Technology

Recent advances in space-borne observations and numerical weather prediction models provide new opportunities for improving hurricane forecasts. In this study, state-of-the-art satellite observations are used to document the evolution of one of the most devastating tropical cyclones ever to hit the United States: Hurricane Katrina. The ECMWF and NASA global high-resolution forecasts, the latter being run in experimental mode, are compared with satellite observations, with a focus on precipitation and cloud processes. Future directions on modeling and observations are briefly discussed.

Lin, Xin

A Multi-scale Modeling System: Developments, Applications and Critical Issues

A multi-scale modeling framework (MMF), which replaces the conventional cloud parameterizations with a cloud-resolving model (CRM) in each grid column of a GCM, constitutes a new and promising approach. The MMF can provide for global coverage and two-way interactions between the CRMs and their parent GCM. The GCM allows global coverage and the CRM allows explicit simulation of cloud processes and their interactions with radiation and surface processes. A new MMF has been developed that is based the Goddard finite volume GCM (fvGCM) and the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model. This Goddard MMF produces many features that are similar to another MMF that was developed at Colorado State University (CSU), such as an improved .surface precipitation pattern, better cloudiness, improved diurnal variability over both oceans and continents, and a stronger, propagating Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) compared to their parent GCMs using conventional cloud parameterizations. Both MMFs also produce a precipitation bias in the western Pacific during Northern Hemisphere summer. However, there are also notable differences between two MMFs. For example, the CSU MMF simulates less rainfall over land than its parent GCM. This is why the CSU MMF simulated less overall global rainfall than its parent GCM. The Goddard MMF overestimates global rainfall because of its oceanic component. Some critical issues associated with the Goddard MMF are presented in this paper.

Tao, Wei-Kuo

Flying the TRMM Satellite in a GCM

By incorporating the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) satellite orbital information into the Colorado State University General Circulation Model (CSU GCM), we are able to 'fly' a satellite in the GCM, and sample the simulated atmosphere in the same way as the TRMM sensors sample the real atmosphere. The TRMM-sampled statistics for precipitation and radiative fluxes at annual, intraseasonal, monthly-mean and seasonal-mean diurnal time scales are evaluated by comparing the satellite-sampled against fully-sampled simulated atmospheres. The sampling rates of the TRMM sensors are significantly affected by the sensors' swath widths. The TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) and the Visible Infrared Scanner (VIRS) sample each 2.25 x 2.25 degree grid box in the Tropics and subtropics about once per day, but at a different local time every day, while the Precipitation Radar (PR) and the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) sensor visit each grid box about once every three days and twice per day, respectively. Besides inadequate samplings resulting from sensors' swath widths, there is a large, systematic diurnal undersampling associated with TRMM's orbital geometry for grid boxes away from the Equator. When only one month of TRMM data are used, this diurnal undersampling can lead to more daytime samples relative to nighttime samples in one hemisphere, and more nighttime samples relative to daytime samples in the other hemisphere. The resulting sampling biases (3-6 W m(exp-2)) are very pronounced in outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) over the subtropical land masses. The sampling errors in OLR monthly- and seasonal-means are less than 8 W m(exp-2) (5%) for each 2.25 x 2.25 degree grid box. The OLR monthly- and seasonal-means are not sensitive to diurnal undersamplings associated with the TRMM orbits and sensors' swath widths. However, this is not the case for total precipitation. Diurnal undersampling could produce errors as large as 20% in the Tropics and 40% in the subtropics, for the zonally averaged monthly-mean rain rates. The TRMM orbits sample each 2.25 x 2.25 degree grid box in the Tropics and subtropics 1-6 times for each hour of the day within a single season. The seasonal-mean diurnal cycles of precipitation and OLR are not well sampled for any one grid box. By either accumulating the satellite data for a long enough period, or averaging the data over a large area with a relatively uniform diurnal signal, the diurnal cycles of precipitation and OLR can be satisfactorily sampled. The effects TRMM sampling errors on the inferred tropical-mean hydrologic cycle and radiative fluxes are also evaluated. There are strong spurious oscillations associated with TRMM's orbital geometry, with periods of 23 days and 3-4 months, in tropical-mean daily and monthly precipitation. While the relative fluctuations of the sampled-OLR are negligible, the relative fluctuations of the sampled precipitation have magnitudes similar to those of the observed climate variability. Caution must therefore be used when applying TRMM observations of tropical-mean precipitation to interpret climate variations at intraseasonal and interannual scales.

Lin, Xin

Diurnal Variability of the Hydrologic Cycle and Radiative Fluxes: Comparisons Between Observation and a GCM

The simulated diurnal cycle is in many ways an ideal test bed for new physical parameterizations. The purpose of this paper is to compare observations from the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission, the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment, the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project, the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System Experiment, and the Anglo-Brazilian Amazonian Climate Observation Study with the diurnal variability of the Amazonian hydrologic cycle and radiative energy budget as simulated by the Colorado State University general circulation model, and to evaluate improvements and deficiencies of the model physics. The model uses a prognostic cumulus kinetic energy (CKE) to relax the quasi-equilibrium closure of the Arakawa-Schubert cumulus parameterization. A parameter, alpha, is used to relate the CKE to the cumulus mass flux. This parameter is expected to vary with cloud depth, mean shear, and the level of convective activity, but up to now a single constant value for all cloud types has been used. The results of the present study show clearly that this approach cannot yield realistic simulations of both the diurnal cycle and the monthly mean climate state. Improved results are obtained using a version of the model in which alpha is permitted to vary with cloud depth.

Lin, Xin

Analysis of the Diurnal Cycle of Precipitation and its Relation to Cloud Radiative Forcing Using TRMM Products

In order to improve our understanding of the interactions between clouds, radiation, and the hydrological cycle simulated in the Colorado State University General Circulation Model (CSU GCM), we focused our research on the analysis of the diurnal cycle of precipitation, top-of-the-atmosphere and surface radiation budgets, and cloudiness using 10-year long Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulations. Comparisons the simulated diurnal cycle were made against the diurnal cycle of Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) radiation budget and International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) cloud products. This report summarizes our major findings over the Amazon Basin.

Randall, David A.