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Linker, Jon A.

Publications and source records attributed to Linker, Jon A..

At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2018

Forecasting the Arrival Time of Coronal Mass Ejections: Analysis of the CCMC CME Scoreboard

Accurate forecasting of the properties of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) as they approach Earth is now recognized as an important strategic objective for both NOAA and NASA. The time of arrival of such events is a key parameter, one that had been anticipated to be relatively straightforward to constrain. In this study, we analyze forecasts submitted to the Community Coordinated Modeling Center at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center over the last 6 years to answer the following questions: (1) How well do these models forecast the arrival time of CME-driven shocks? (2) What are the uncertainties associated with these forecasts? (3) Which model(s) perform best? (4) Have the models become more accurate during the past 6 years? We analyze all forecasts made by 32 models from 2013 through mid-2018, and additionally focus on 28 events, all of which were forecasted by six models. We find that the models are generally able to predict CME-shock arrival times, in an average sense, to within ±10 hr, but with standard deviations often exceeding 20 hr. The best performers, on the other hand, maintained a mean error (bias) of 1 hr, a mean absolute error of 13 hr, and a precision (standard deviation) of 15 hr. Finally, there is no evidence that the forecasts have become more accurate during this interval. We discuss the intrinsic simplifications of thevarious models analyzed, the limitations of this investigation, and suggest possible paths to improve these forecasts in the future.

space weather↗
NASA NTRS2017

Particle Radiation Sources, Propagation and Interactions in Deep Space, at Earth, the Moon, Mars, and Beyond: Examples of Radiation Interactions and Effects

Particle radiation has significant effects for astronauts, satellites and planetary bodies throughout the Solar System. Acute space radiation hazards pose risks to human and robotic exploration. This radiation also naturally weathers the exposed surface regolith of the Moon, the two moons of Mars, and other airless bodies, and contributes to chemical evolution of planetary atmospheres at Earth, Mars, Venus, Titan, and Pluto. We provide a select review of recent areas of research covering the origin of SEPs from coronal mass ejections low in the corona, propagation of events through the solar system during the anomalously weak solar cycle 24 and important examples of radiation interactions for Earth, other planets and airless bodies such as the Moon.

Schwadron, Nathan A.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Coronal Plumes in the Fast Solar Wind

The expansion of a coronal hole filled with a discrete number of higher density coronal plumes is simulated using a time-dependent two-dimensional code. A solar wind model including an exponential coronal heating function and a flux of Alfven waves propagating both inside and outside the structures is taken as a basic state. Different plasma plume profiles are obtained by using different scale heights for the heating rates. Remote sensing and solar wind in situ observations are used to constrain the parameter range of the study. Time dependence due to plume ignition and disappearance is also discussed. Velocity differences of the order of approximately 50 km/s, such as those found in microstreams in the high-speed solar wind, may be easily explained by slightly different heat deposition profiles in different plumes. Statistical pressure balance in the fast wind data may be masked by the large variety of body and surface waves which the higher density filaments may carry, so the absence of pressure balance in the microstreams should not rule out their interpretation as the extension of coronal plumes into interplanetary space. Mixing of plume-interplume material via the Kelvin-Helmholtz instability seems to be possible within the parameter ranges of the models defined here, only at large di stances from the Sun, beyond 0.2-0.3 AU. Plasma and composition measurements in the inner heliosphere, such as those which will become available with Solar Orbiter and Solar Probe Plus, should therefore definitely be able to identify plume remnants in the solar wind.

Velli, Marco↗
NASA NTRS2011

The Structure and Dynamics of the Corona - Heliosphere Connection

Determining the source at the Sun of the slow solar wind is one of the major unsolved problems in solar and heliospheric physics. First, we review the existing theories for the slow wind and argue that they have difficulty accounting for both the observed composition of the wind and its large angular extent. A new theory in which the slow wind originates from the continuous opening and closing of narrow open field corridors, the S-Web model, is described. Support for the S-Web model is derived from MHD solutions for the quasisteady corona and wind during the time of the August 1, 2008 eclipse. Additionally, we perform fully dynamic numerical simulations of the corona and heliosphere in order to test the S-Web model as well as the interchange model proposed by Fisk and co-workers. We discuss the implications of our simulations for the competing theories and for understanding the corona - heliosphere connection, in general.

Antiochos, Spiro K.↗
NASA NTRS2010

The Evolution of Open Magnetic Flux Driven by Photospheric Dynamics

The coronal magnetic field is of paramount importance in solar and heliospheric physics. Two profoundly different views of the coronal magnetic field have emerged. In quasi-steady models, the predominant source of open magnetic field is in coronal holes. In contrast, in the interchange model, the open magnetic flux is conserved, and the coronal magnetic field can only respond to the photospheric evolution via interchange reconnection. In this view the open magnetic flux diffuses through the closed, streamer belt fields, and substantial open flux is present in the streamer belt during solar minimum. However, Antiochos and co-workers, in the form of a conjecture, argued that truly isolated open flux cannot exist in a configuration with one heliospheric current sheet (HCS) - it will connect via narrow corridors to the polar coronal hole of the same polarity. This contradicts the requirements of the interchange model. We have performed an MHD simulation of the solar corona up to 20R solar to test both the interchange model and the Antiochos conjecture. We use a synoptic map for Carrington Rotation 1913 as the boundary condition for the model, with two small bipoles introduced into the region where a positive polarity extended coronal hole forms. We introduce flows at the photospheric boundary surface to see if open flux associated with the bipoles can be moved into the closed-field region. Interchange reconnection does occur in response to these motions. However, we find that the open magnetic flux cannot be simply injected into closed-field regions - the flux eventually closes down and disconnected flux is created. Flux either opens or closes, as required, to maintain topologically distinct open and closed field regions, with no indiscriminate mixing of the two. The early evolution conforms to the Antiochos conjecture in that a narrow corridor of open flux connects the portion of the coronal hole that is nearly detached by one of the bipoles. In the later evolution, a detached coronal hole forms, in apparent violation of the Antiochos conjecture. Further investigation reveals that this detached coronal hole is actually linked to the extended coronal hole by a separatrix footprint on the photosphere of zero width. Therefore, the essential idea of the conjecture is preserved, if we modify it to state that coronal holes in the same polarity region are always linked, either by finite width corridors or separatrix footprints. The implications of these results for interchange reconnection and the sources of the slow solar wind are briefly discussed.

Linker, Jon A.↗
NASA NTRS2010

The Structure and Dynamics of the Corona - Heliosphere Connection

Determining the source at the Sun of the slow solar wind is one of the major unsolved problems in solar and heliospheric physics. First, we review the existing theories for the slow wind and argue that they have difficulty accounting for both the observed composition of the wind and its large angular extent. A new theory in which the slow wind originates from the continuous opening and closing of narrow open field corridors, the S-Web model, is described. Support for the S-Web model is derived from MHD solutions for the quasisteady corona and wind during the time of the August 1, 2008 eclipse. Additionally, we perform fully dynamic numerical simulations of the corona and heliosphere in order to test the S-Web model as well as the interchange model proposed by Fisk and co-workers. We discuss the implications of our simulations for the competing theories and for understanding the corona - heliosphere connection, in general.

Antiochos, Spiro K.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Multispectral Emission of the Sun during the First Whole Sun Month: Magnetohydrodynamic Simulations

We demonstrate that a three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation of the corona can model its global plasma density and temperature structure with sufficient accuracy to reproduce many of the multispectral properties of the corona observed in extreme ultraviolet (EW) and X-ray emission. The key ingredient to this new type of global MHD model is the inclusion of energy transport processes (coronal heating, anisotropic thermal conduction, and radiative losses) in the energy equation. The calculation of these processes has previously been confined to one-dimensional loop models, idealized two-dimensional computations, and three-dimensional active region models. We refer to this as the thermodynamic MHD model, and we apply it to the time period of Carrington rotation 1913 (1996 August 22 to September 18). The form of the coronal heating term strongly affects the plasma density and temperature of the solutions. We perform our calculation for three different empirical heating models: (1) a heating function exponentially decreasing in radius; (2) the model of Schrijver et al.; and (3) a model reproducing the heating properties of the quiet Sun and active regions. We produce synthetic emission images from the density and temperature calculated with these three heating functions and quantitatively compare them with observations from E W Imaging Telescope on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory and the soft X-ray telescope on Yohkoh. Although none of the heating models provide a perfect match, heating models 2 and 3 provide a reasonable match to the observations.

Lionello, Roberto↗
NASA NTRS2008

The Formation of Coronal Loops by Thermal Instability in Three Dimensions

Plasma loops in solar active regions have been observed in EUV and soft X-rays for decades. Their formation mechanism and properties, however, are still not fully understood. Predictions by early models, based on 1D hydrostatic equilibria with uniform plasma heating, are not consistent with high-resolution measurements. In this Letter, we demonstrate, via 3D simulations, that a class of heating models can lead to the dynamic formation of plasma loops provided the plasma is heated sufficiently to match SXT soft X-ray measurements. We show that individual flux tubes in a 3D magnetic structure tend to stand out against their neighbors. The loops have large aspect ratios and nearly uniform cross sections in the corona, similar to those observed by EIT and TRACE. The coronal EUV emission from these thermally unstable solutions is roughly consistent with EIT measurements. The solution oscillates in time through a large-amplitude, nonlinear cycle, leading to repeated brightening and fading of the loops.

Mok, Yung↗
NASA NTRS2006

The Latitudinal Excursion of Coronal Magnetic Field Lines in Response to Differential Rotation: MHD Simulations

Solar energetic particles, which are believed to originate from corotating interacting regions (CIRS) at low heliographic latitude, were observed by the Ulysses spacecraft even as it passed over the Sun's poles. One interpretation of this result is that high-latitude field lines intercepted by Ulysses connect to low-latitude CIRs at much larger heliocentric distances. The Fisk model explains the latitudinal excursion of magnetic field lines in the solar corona and heliosphere as the inevitable consequence of the interaction of a tilted dipole in a differentially rotating photosphere with rigidly rotating coronal holes. We use a time-dependent three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) algorithm to follow the evolution of a simple model of the solar corona in response to the differential rotation of the photospheric magnetic flux. We examine the changes of the coronal-hole boundaries, the redistribution of the line-of-sight magnetic field, and the precession of field lines in the corona. Our results confirm the basic idea of the Fisk model, that differential rotation leads to changes in the heliographic latitude of magnetic field lines. However, the latitudinal excursion of magnetic field lines in this simple "tilted dipole" model is too small to explain the Ulysses observations. Although coronal holes in our model rotate more rigidly than do photospheric features (in general agreement with observations), they do not rotate strictly rigidly as assumed by Fisk. This basic difference between our model and Fisk's will be explored in the future by considering more realistic magnetic flux distributions, as observed during Ulysses polar excursions.

Lionello, Roberto↗
NASA NTRS2004

The Effects of Differential Rotation on the Magnetic Structure of the Solar Corona: MHD Simulations

Coronal holes are magnetically open regions from which the solar wind streams. Magnetic reconnection has been invoked to reconcile the apparently rigid rotation of coronal holes with the differential rotation of magnetic flux in the photosphere. This mechanism might also be relevant to the formation of the slow solar wind, the properties of which seem to indicate an origin from the opening of closed magnetic field lines. We have developed a global MHD model to study the effect of differential rotation on the coronal magnetic field. Starting from a magnetic flux distribution similar to that of Wang et al., which consists of a bipolar magnetic region added to a background dipole field, we applied differential rotation over a period of 5 solar rotations. The evolution of the magnetic field and of the boundaries of coronal holes are in substantial agreement with the findings of Wang et al.. We identified examples of interchange reconnection and other changes of topology of the magnetic field. Possible consequences for the origin of the slow solar wind are also discussed.

Lionello, Roberto↗
NASA NTRS2004

MHD Modeling of Differential Rotation in Coronal Holes

The photosphere and the magnetic flux therein undergo differential rotation. Coronal holes appear to rotate almost rigidly. Magnetic reconnection has been invoked to reconcile these phenomena. Mechanism relevant to the formation of the slow solar wind. We have used our MHD model in spherical coordinates to study the effect of differential rotation on coronal holes. We have imposed a magnetic flux distribution similar to and applied differential rotation for the equivalent of 5 solar rotations.

Lionello, Roberto↗
NASA NTRS2003

Predicting the Structure of the Solar Corona During the December 4, 2002 Total Solar Eclipse

The solar magnetic field plays a key role in determining coronal. The principal input to MHD models is the observed solar magnetic field. 3D MHD models can be used to compare with eclipse and coronograph images, SOHO images (LOSCO, EIT), Ulysses and WIND spacecraft data, and interplanetary scintillation (IPS) measurements. MHD computations can tell us about the structure of the corona. Eclipses can help us to verify the accuracy of the models. 4 December, 2002 total eclipce: visible in the southern hemisphere (South Atlantic, southern Africa, Indian Ocean, and Australia). Total in center Angola is at 06:00 UT.

Mikic, Zoran↗
NASA NTRS2001

Magnetized or Unmagnetized: Ambiguity Persists Following Galileo's Encounters with Io in 1999 and 2000

Magnetometer data from Galileo's close encounters with Io do not establish absolutely either the existence or absence of an internal magnetic moment because the measurements were made in regions where plasma currents contribute sizable magnetic perturbations. Data from an additional encounter where the closest approaches were made beneath Io's south polar regions, were lost. The recent passes enhance our understanding of the interaction of Io and its flux tube with the torus, and narrows the limits on possible internal sources of magnetic fields. Simple field-draping arguments account for some aspects of the observed rotations. Analyses in terms of both a magnetized and an unmagnetized Io are considered. Data from the February 2000 pass disqualify a strongly magnetized Io (surface equatorial field stronger than the background field) but do not disqualify a weakly magnetized Io (surface equatorial field of the order of Ganymede's but smaller than the background field at Io). Models imply that if Io is magnetized, its magnetic moment is not absolutely antialigned with the rotation axis. The inferred tilt is consistent with contributions from an inductive field on the order of those observed at Europa and Callisto. The currents would flow in the outer mantle or aesthenosphere if an induced field is present. Wave perturbations differing on flux tubes that do or do not link directly to Io and its ionosphere suggest the following: (1) the latter flux tubes are almost stagnant in Io's frame; and (2) a unipolar inductor correctly models the currents linking Io to Jupiter's ionosphere.

Kivelson, Margaret G.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Global Magnetohydrodynamic Modeling of the Solar Corona

This report describes the progress made in the investigation of the solar corona using magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations. Coronal mass ejections (CME) are believed to be the primary cause of nonrecurrent geomagnetic storms and these have been investigated through the use of three-dimensional computer simulation.

Linker, Jon A.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Studies of Plasma Flow Past Jupiter's Galilean Satellites

We have investigated the interaction of Io, Jupiter's innermost Galilean satellite, with the Io plasma torus, using our semi-implicit time-dependent 3D MHD code to model the plasma interactions. We have used the same code to model the plasma interaction at Ganymede.

Linker, Jon A.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Global Magnetohydrodynamic Modeling of the Solar Corona

The solar corona, the hot, tenuous outer atmosphere of the Sun, exhibits many fascinating phenomena on a wide range of scales. One of the ways that the Sun can affect us here at Earth is through the large-scale structure of the corona and the dynamical phenomena associated with it, as it is the corona that extends outward as the solar wind and encounters the Earth's magnetosphere. The goal of our research sponsored by NASA's Supporting Research and Technology Program in Solar Physics is to develop increasingly realistic models of the large-scale solar corona, so that we can understand the underlying properties of the coronal magnetic field that lead to the observed structure and evolution of the corona. We describe the work performed under this contract.

Linker, Jon A.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Modeling Ultraviolet Emissions Near Io

In this report, we describe work awarded to Science Applications International Corporation, for the period 6/l/99 to 5/31/00. During this time period, we have investigated the interaction of Io, Jupiter's innermost Galilean satellite, with the Io plasma torus, and the role this interaction plays in producing ultraviolet (UV) emissions from neutral oxygen and sulfur. Io, the innermost of Jupiter's Galilean satellites, plays a unique role in the jovian magnetosphere. Neutral material that escapes from Io is ionized to form the lo torus, a dense, heavy-ion plasma that corotates with Jupiter and interacts with Io. Io supplies not only the torus, but is a major source of plasma for the entire magnetosphere. Ionization and charge-exchange of neutrals near lo strongly influences the plasma interaction, and Io's neutral atmosphere plays an important role in the generation of currents that couple Io to Jupiter. There have been no in situ measurements of the neutral density near Io, but remote observations of neutrals near lo have been performed for many years. Recent observations from the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) have shown detailed structure in UV emissions from neutral species near Io. Electron-impact of the neutrals by the Io torus plasma is the primary mechanism responsible for exciting these emissions. Previously, we have modeled the Io plasma environment using three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations, and we have shown that the interaction between Io and the plasma torus plays an important role in producing the morphology of the observed emissions. In the past year, we have extended these studies to use both UV observations and Galileo particle and field measurements to investigate the Io interaction.

Linker, Jon A.↗