List, Florian | Search NASA

DOE OSTI2026

Energy Distribution of the Galactic Center Excess’s Sources

The Galactic Center Excess (GCE) may yet herald the discovery of annihilating dark matter. Weighing against that conclusion are analyses showing evidence for dim point sources within the spatial structure of the emission. Because of technical limitations these analyses are purely spatial with all spectral information that could disentangle the excess from astrophysical backgrounds discarded. Here, we demonstrate that a neural network simulation-based inference approach can jointly analyze the spatial and spectra data. The addition is profound: energy information drives the putative point sources to be significantly dimmer, indicating either the GCE is truly diffuse in nature or made of an exceptionally large number of sources. Quantitatively, for our best fit background model, the excess is essentially consistent with Poisson emission as predicted by dark matter. If due to point sources, our median prediction is O(10^{5}) sources, or more than 35 000 at 90% confidence-both orders of magnitude larger than the hundreds preferred by earlier point-source analyses of the GCE, although variations allowed by background systematics could reduce the required number of sources by roughly an order of magnitude.

List, Florian↗

DOE OSTI2021

Extracting the Galactic Center excess’ source-count distribution with neural nets

The two leading hypotheses for the Galactic Center excess (GCE) in the Fermi data are an unresolved population of faint millisecond pulsars (MSPs) and dark-matter (DM) annihilation. The dichotomy between these explanations is typically reflected by modeling them as two separate emission components. However, point sources (PSs) such as MSPs become statistically degenerate with smooth Poisson emission in the ultrafaint limit (formally where each source is expected to contribute much less than one photon on average), leading to an ambiguity that can render questions such as whether the emission is PS-like or Poissonian in nature ill defined. We present a conceptually new approach that describes the PS and Poisson emission in a unified manner and only afterwards derives constraints on the Poissonian component from the so obtained results. For the implementation of this approach, we leverage deep learning techniques, centered around a neural network-based method for histogram regression that expresses uncertainties in terms of quantiles. We demonstrate that our method is robust against a number of systematics that have plagued previous approaches, in particular DM/PS misattribution. In the Fermi data, we find a faint GCE described by a median source-count distribution (SCD) peaked at a flux of ~ 4 x 10 -11 counts cm -2 s -1 (corresponding to ~ 3-4 expected counts per PS), which would require N ~ $\mathscr{O}$(10 4 ) sources to explain the entire excess (median value N = 29,300 across the sky). Although faint, this SCD allows us to derive the constraint η ρ ≤ 66% for the Poissonian fraction of the GCE flux η ρ at 95% confidence, suggesting that a substantial amount of the GCE flux is due to PSs.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗