Supporting energy policy research with large language models: A case study in wind energy siting ordinances
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29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Engineering topics
Lopez, Anthony
Publications and source records attributed to Lopez, Anthony.
Solar Siting and Land-Use in Decarbonized Energy Systems: Final Technical Report
This is the final technical report for the FY21-24 project "Solar Siting and Land-use in Decarbonized Energy Systems."
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Siting Lab [SWR-24-95]
Siting Lab contains a collection of user-friendly tutorials and guides for working with the Siting Lab (https://data.openei.org/siting_lab) data within the context of the reV model. The python code examples demonstrate the creation and transformation of Siting Lab data into reV compliant format as well as working with the reV model inputs and outputs. Specifically, Siting Lab provides a collection of Jupyter Notebooks that serve as guides for working with data from NREL's spatial analysis portfolio. These notebooks teach users how to create and interact with reV data in order to facilitate external use of the model. The guides in this repository reference NREL's Supply Curve data as well as Siting Lab spatial data available on OEDI.
Lopez, Anthony↗
via-wind (A Visual Impact Assessment Tool for Wind Turbines) [SWR-24-87]
Via-wind is an open-source tool for conducting visual impact assessments for wind turbines. It combines geographic information system (GIS) and 3D simulation methods to account for the key factors driving the visual impact of installed wind turbines, including distance, viewing angle, turbine orientation, visual exposure, and the cumulative effects of multiple turbines. This software is optimized for use in high-performance computing environments to enable large scale (e.g., country-wide) analysis, but can also be run on a single server or personal computer. For more information, please see the related journal article: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261924021846
Lopez, Anthony↗
Wake Effects in Lower Carbon Future Scenarios
In August 2022, the U.S. Congress passed the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which intended to accelerate U.S. decarbonization, clean energy manufacturing, and deployment of new power and end-use technologies. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory has examined possible scenarios for growth by 2050 resulting from the IRA and other emissions reduction drivers and defined several possible scenarios for large-scale wind deployment. These scenarios incorporate large clusters of turbines operating as wind farms grouped around existing or likely transmission lines which will result in wind farm wakes. Using a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model, we assess these wake effects in a domain in the U. S. Southern Great Plains for a representative year with four scenarios in order to validate the simulations, estimate the internal wake impact, and quantify the cluster wake effect. Herein, we present a validation of the ”no wind farm” scenario and quantify the internal waking effect for the ”ONE” wind farm scenario. Future work will use the “MID” scenario (more than 8000 turbines) and the “HI” scenario (more than 16,000 turbines) to quantify the effect of cluster wakes or inter-farm wakes on power production.
17 WIND ENERGY↗
Atlantic Offshore Wind Transmission Study
The Atlantic Offshore Wind Transmission Study (AOSWTS) is part of the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) efforts to understand and facilitate the transmission of electricity from wind in the Atlantic Ocean. It was informed by the Atlantic Offshore Wind Transmission Literature Review and Gaps Analysis (Bothwell et al. 2021) and the convening workshops hosted in 2022-2023 by DOE and the U.S. Department of the Interior's Bureau of Ocean Energy Management. The study results help to inform An Action Plan for Offshore Wind Transmission Development in the U.S. Atlantic Region (Baker et al. 2023). DOE's Wind Energy Technologies Office funded AOSWTS. The AOSWTS identifies and evaluates pathways to enable offshore wind energy deployment in the Atlantic Ocean through coordinated offshore transmission solutions in the near term (by 2030) and long term (by 2050). The study fills gaps in prior analyses by providing a multiregional planning perspective that evaluates offshore wind generation development with transmission planning. It incorporates environmental, ocean co-use, and other siting considerations into defining potential offshore transmission routes. The study also compares different multiregional offshore transmission topologies and their associated costs (using potential cable routes) and benefits (in terms of production cost savings and enhanced resource adequacy). In addition, the AOSWTS analyzes reliability impacts from a multiregional perspective. The study provides guidance for policymakers and transmission stakeholders on possible outcomes resulting from a proactive, coordinated, and interregional approach to transmission planning for offshore wind energy development in the Atlantic. While this study presents possibilities, additional work following system operator methods and procedures can help build on this analysis.
17 WIND ENERGY↗
Atlantic Offshore Wind Transmission Study: Executive Summary
The Atlantic Offshore Wind Transmission Study (AOSWTS) is part of the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) efforts to understand and facilitate the transmission of electricity from wind in the Atlantic Ocean. It was informed by the Atlantic Offshore Wind Transmission Literature Review and Gaps Analysis (Bothwell et al. 2021) and the convening workshops hosted in 2022-2023 by DOE and the U.S. Department of the Interior's Bureau of Ocean Energy Management. The study results help to inform An Action Plan for Offshore Wind Transmission Development in the U.S. Atlantic Region (Baker et al. 2023). DOE's Wind Energy Technologies Office funded AOSWTS. The AOSWTS identifies and evaluates pathways to enable offshore wind energy deployment in the Atlantic Ocean through coordinated offshore transmission solutions in the near term (by 2030) and long term (by 2050). The study fills gaps in prior analyses by providing a multiregional planning perspective that evaluates offshore wind generation development with transmission planning. It incorporates environmental, ocean co-use, and other siting considerations into defining potential offshore transmission routes. The study also compares different multiregional offshore transmission topologies and their associated costs (using potential cable routes) and benefits (in terms of production cost savings and enhanced resource adequacy). In addition, the AOSWTS analyzes reliability impacts from a multiregional perspective. The study provides guidance for policymakers and transmission stakeholders on possible outcomes resulting from a proactive, coordinated, and interregional approach to transmission planning for offshore wind energy development in the Atlantic. While this study presents possibilities, additional work following system operator methods and procedures can help build on this analysis.
17 WIND ENERGY↗
Solar Photovoltaics and Land-Based Wind Technical Potential and Supply Curves for the Contiguous United States (2023 Edition)
Estimates of the potential of renewable energy are essential for understanding how we can decarbonize our electric grid and economy. They provide key data for policymakers, land managers, and energy modelers by defining the quantity, quality, and cost of renewable resources. However, estimating renewable energy potential is challenging and requires frequent updates because of rapid advances in technology, cost reductions, and uncertainty about developable land that are due to social, regulatory, and environmental factors. Additionally, the complex processes involved in renewable energy development require regular reviews of methods and assumptions, which can also impact our understanding of renewable potential. In this, the 2023 edition of this annual report, we present new estimates of the technical potential for land-based wind and solar photovoltaics (PV) for the contiguous United States (CONUS). We also provide cost estimates for the available resources, presenting representative supply curves that can be used in downstream modeling and analysis. Additionally, we introduce the new methodologies used to estimate wind capacity, wind energy losses, transmission cost and representation, updated technology cost and design, and scenarios of siting constraints designed to help bound the uncertainty of renewable potential.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
2023 Standard Scenarios Report: A U.S. Electricity Sector Outlook
This report, originally published in December 2023, has been revised in January 2024. There were three changes in the revision. First, Anthony Lopez was added as a contributing author, as he had been erroneously omitted in the original publication. Second, in appendix section A.1 the cost of upgrading a hydrogen combustion turbine from a natural gas turbine was erroneously reported as 20% when it should have been 33%. Lastly, appendix Figure A-8 was erroneously a duplication of the same figure from the Standard Scenarios 2022, it has now been updated to reflect this year’s data.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
Incorporating Wind Turbine Choice in High-Resolution Geospatial Supply Curve and Capacity Expansion Models
To achieve national decarbonization goals, U.S. annual deployment of wind energy will need to increase by at least fivefold compared to the recent past. Modeling and analysis frameworks can help inform where and how wind energy deployment might occur and thereby help enable the achievement of decarbonization goals. However, most prior wind energy modeling and analysis studies rely on generalized representations of wind energy technologies. Since wind energy technology advancements are expected to increase the competitiveness of wind energy, it is important to incorporate more detailed representations of turbine technology into wind energy modeling. Here we present a new method that incorporates wind turbine choice into the technology representation of land-based wind energy in long-term planning models. Our method integrates three previously published modeling and analysis capabilities: 1) bottom-up cost modeling to estimate future technology costs, 2) geospatial modeling to represent siting decisions, and 3) power sector modeling to evaluate potential deployment. We refer to this approach as a "customized turbine choice" methodology because it creates a composite turbine scenario by choosing from multiple wind turbine technologies—using site-specific optimized turbine layout and selecting the least-cost technology at each location. We demonstrate the capabilities of this new modeling pipeline by examining how the selection of four different wind turbine configurations might evolve from 2021 through 2040. Our results show that using our customized turbine choice methodology could lead to higher estimates for wind future deployment, which indicates that more simplified modeling might underestimate the role that wind energy could play in meeting decarbonization goals. Future research is needed to further explore the implications of turbine choice and to better inform technology researchers, original equipment manufacturers, and other wind industry stakeholders about the market potential of different wind turbine technologies.
17 WIND ENERGY↗
Estimating National-Scale Wind Potential Using Spatially Explicit Turbine Layout Optimization
National renewable energy potential assessments play a broad and critical role in analysis of the clean energy transition by providing foundational estimates of developable clean resources. Common to all past wind potential assessments is an assumption that wraps the complexity of wind plant layout (arrangement of turbines) into a single metric known as capacity density, or rated power capacity per unit of land area. Quite often, a singular capacity density or rotor-diameter driven capacity density is used in wind potential assessments across broad geographies despite the complexities of local drivers. Here, we present a new wind technical potential assessment for the United States, leveraging a spatial optimization approach in lieu of the traditional uniform capacity density. The optimization approach is a spatially explicit method for determining the potential locations of individual wind turbines-taking into account the turbine configuration, plant economics and losses, wind resource, and siting considerations. Our approach accounts for the interactions between wind technology design, wind plant layout, and the vast array of regulatory, land use and infrastructure conflicts with wind development. Our results highlight the potential ability of larger turbines to enable increased wind capacity, up to a point, and increased generation when siting turbines in and around spatial constraints; moreover, they demonstrate and capture the LCOE benefit of relatively lower capacity densities and reduced wake losses when land is relatively abundant. These insights provide foundational knowledge for the wind sector as it develops and pursues future turbine models and as wind energy markets expand in zero-carbon futures. Further, when applied in capacity expansion models, supply curves developed by these methods can provide detailed local insights about where wind turbines might be deployed in and among known siting constraints for those regions where wind energy is determined to be economic, providing critical nuance to local decision-makers and stakeholders.
17 WIND ENERGY↗
County-Level Hourly Renewable Capacity Factor Dataset for the ReEDS Model
This dataset contains hourly capacity factors for each renewable resource class and region (in this case, county). Technologies like large-scale utility PV (UPV), onshore wind, offshore wind, and concentrating solar power (CSP) are included. The dataset contains 7 years of hourly weather data (2007-2013) for different sites across the US and is used as one of the inputs to the ReEDS-2.0 model (see the "ReEDS 2.0 GitHub Repository" resource link below), developed by NREL. The weather profiles apply to any capacity that exists or is built in each region and class. This helps calculate the generation that can be provided using these resources. Open, reference, and limited are 3 scenarios based on land-use allowance, derived from the Renewable Energy Potential (reV) model developed by NREL, which helps generate supply curves for renewable technologies and assess the maximum potential of renewable resources in a designated area. Each zipped file in this dataset corresponds to a technology and contains the respective land-use scenario files required to run that technology in ReEDS. To use this dataset, download and place the extracted files in the locally cloned ReEDS repository inside one of the folders (inputs/variability/multi_year). After completing this copy, upon running the ReEDS model at the county-level spatial resolution for respective analysis purposes, the program will detect the presence of these files and will not fail.
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Impacts of Siting Considerations on Offshore Wind Technical Potential in the United States
We estimated the technical potential for the offshore wind (OSW) resource in the United States under two siting regimes to characterize the uncertainty pertaining to the local drivers of siting within a national context. We established Open Access and Limited Access regimes to represent upper and lower bounds on OSW deployment, respectively. These included spatial constraints such as technology depth limits, military use areas, protected areas, existing infrastructure, shipping lanes and more. The same spatial considerations are also considered in the Limited Access regime, but with additional buffers to existing infrastructure as well as a reduced capacity density assumption. Capacity density is the concentration of wind energy development for a given area specified in terms of megawatts (MW) per square kilometer (km 2 ). In the Open-Access regime we used a 5 MW/km 2 assumption, while in the Limited Access scenario we assumed 3 MW/km 2 . This difference reflects our intention for the Open-Access scenario to serve as an upper bound for OSW technical potential, with the Limited-Access scenario as a lower bound. We also applied three technology advancement scenarios to each of the siting regimes. The three technology scenarios (Conservative, Moderate, and Advanced) represent plausible improvements in turbine technology including increased rated power and higher hub heights.
17 WIND ENERGY↗
Exploring the Impact of Near-Term Innovations on the Technical Potential of Land-Based Wind Energy
Land based wind may play a critical role in reaching emissions reductions goals and high renewable contribution scenarios with capacity expansion modeling results estimating over 1 terawatt of land-based wind by 2035 to reach 100% clean electricity. Deployment of land-based wind at this magnitude may require significant investments in transmission infrastructure and will require significant land area for new wind and transmission. Cost reductions via technological advancements in wind turbine design, construction, and maintenance will have a major role in enabling the scale of deployment required. Since 1998, the levelized cost of wind energy has fallen by over 60% due to improvements in capacity factors, advancements in turbine controls, and cost reductions in installation, operation, and maintenance. These cost reduction pathways, generally referred to as wind technology "innovations", have enabled significant increases in the capacity and electric generation share of wind power in the United States. Nevertheless, achievements of past wind innovations have not led to widespread wind deployment outside of high wind speed geographies. This study evaluates the potential of near-term innovations to expand the geographic range of economically viable land-based wind power production in the United States. Many challenges to future deployment of wind power can be associated with increasing concentration in high-wind areas. As more wind power is deployed in these same areas, it is likely that residential and regulatory resistance to further deployment will increase, access to transmission will diminish, and options for distant companies and governments with renewable energy goals will remain limited. Therefore, this analysis aims to emphasize the potential for innovations to enable land-based wind in regions with limited wind deployment and with lower wind resource and better access to transmission.
17 WIND ENERGY↗
Offshore Wind Energy Technical Potential for the Contiguous United States [Slides]
The study evaluates the technical potential of offshore wind (OSW) energy for the contiguous United States. Critical updates from previous estimates include updating and quantifying assumptions around spatial siting constraints, capacity density, depth limits, and inclusion of the Great Lakes.
17 WIND ENERGY↗
U.S. Wind Siting Regulation and Zoning Ordinances
A machine readable collection of documented wind siting ordinances at the state and local (e.g., county, township) level throughout the United States. The data were compiled from several sources including, DOE's Wind Exchange Ordinance Database (Linked in the submission), National Conference of State and Legislatures Wind Energy Siting (also linked in the submission), and scholarly legal articles. The citations for each ordinance are included in the spreadsheet. This data is an updated to a previously developed database of wind ordinances found in OEDI Submission 1932: "U.S. Wind Siting Regulation and Zoning Ordinances"
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U.S. Solar Siting Regulation and Zoning Ordinances
A machine readable collection of documented solar siting ordinances at the state and local (e.g., county, township) level throughout the United States. The data were compiled based on a locality-by-locality review zoning ordinances after completing an initial review of scholarly legal articles. The citations for each ordinance are included in the spreadsheet.
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