Engineering topics
Publications and source records attributed to Lorien F Wheeler.
These maps represent asteroid impact damage estimates modeled for the PDC25 Hypothetical Asteroid Impact Exercise, as part of the 9th AIAA Planetary Defense Conference (PDC2025). This exercise assesses a realistic but fictitious hypothetical scenario, not a real asteroid threat.
A high-fidelity approach for simulating the aerothermodynamic environments of meteor entries was developed, which allows the commonly assumed heat transfer coefficient of 0.1 to be assessed. This model uses chemically reacting computational fluid dynamics (CFD), coupled with radiation transport and surface ablation. Coupled radiation accounts for the impact of radiation on the flowfield energy equations, while coupled ablation explicitly models the injection of ablation products within the flowfield and radiation simulations. For a meteoroid with a velocity of 20 km/s, coupled radiation is shown to reduce the stagnation point radiative heating by over 60%. The impact of coupled ablation (with coupled radiation) is shown to provide at least a 70% reduction in the radiative heating relative to cases with only coupled radiation. This large reduction is partially the result of the low ionization energies of meteoric ablation products relative to air species. The low ionization energies of ablation products, such as Mg and Ca, provide strong photoionization and atomic line absorption in regions of the spectrum that air species do not. MgO and CaO are also shown to provide significant absorption. Turbulence is shown to impact the distribution of ablation products through the shock-layer, which results in up to a 100% increase in the radiative heating downstream of the stagnation point. To create a database of heat transfer coefficients, the developed model was applied to a range of cases. This database considered velocities ranging from 14 to 20 km/s, altitudes ranging from 20 to 50 km, and nose radii ranging from 1 to 100 m. The heat transfer coefficients from these simulations are below 0.045 for the range of cases, for both laminar and turbulent, which is significantly lower than the canonical value of 0:1. When the new heat transfer model is applied to a Tunguska-like 15 Mt entry, the effect of the new model is to lower the height of burst by up to 2 km, depending on assumed entry angle. This, in turn, results in a significantly larger ground damage footprint than when the canonical heating assumption is used.
Asteroid threat assessment requires the quantification of both the impact likelihood and resulting consequence across the range of possible events. This paper presents a probabilistic asteroid impact risk (PAIR) assessment model developed for this purpose. The model incorporates published impact frequency rates with state-of-the-art consequence assessment tools, applied within a Monte Carlo framework that generates sets of impact scenarios from uncertain parameter distributions. Explicit treatment of atmospheric entry is included to produce energy deposition rates that account for the effects of thermal ablation and object fragmentation. These energy deposition rates are used to model the resulting ground damage, and affected populations are computed for the sampled impact locations. The results for each scenario are aggregated into a distribution of potential outcomes that reflect the range of uncertain impact parameters, population densities, and strike probabilities. As an illustration of the utility of the PAIR model, the results are used to address the question of what minimum size asteroid constitutes a threat to the population. To answer this question, complete distributions of results are combined with a hypothetical risk tolerance posture to provide the minimum size, given sets of initial assumptions. Model outputs demonstrate how such questions can be answered and provide a means for interpreting the effect that input assumptions and uncertainty can have on final risk-based decisions. Model results can be used to prioritize investments to gain knowledge in critical areas or, conversely, to identify areas where additional data has little effect on the metrics of interest.
During asteroid entry, energy is deposited in the atmosphere through thermal ablation and momentum-loss due to aerodynamic drag. Analytic models of asteroid entry and breakup physics are used to compute the energy deposition, which can then be compared against measured light curves and used to estimate ground damage due to airburst events. This work assesses and compares energy deposition results from four existing approaches to asteroid breakup modeling, and presents a new model that combines key elements of those approaches. The existing approaches considered include a liquid drop or "pancake" model where the object is treated as a single deforming body, and a set of discrete fragment models where the object breaks progressively into individual fragments. The new model incorporates both independent fragments and aggregate debris clouds to represent a broader range of fragmentation behaviors and reproduce more detailed light curve features. All five models are used to estimate the energy deposition rate versus altitude for the Chelyabinsk meteor impact, and results are compared with an observationally derived energy deposition curve. Comparisons show that four of the five approaches are able to match the overall observed energy deposition profile, but the features of the combined model are needed to better replicate both the primary and secondary peaks of the Chelyabinsk curve.
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Explore the source record for details and available documents.