Engineering topics
Lovell, A. E.
Publications and source records attributed to Lovell, A. E..
Investigating the effects of precise mass measurements of Ru and Pd isotopes on machine learning mass modeling
Atomic masses are a foundational quantity in our understanding of nuclear structure, astrophysics, and fundamental symmetries. The longstanding goal of creating a predictive global model for the binding energy of a nucleus remains a significant challenge, however, and prompts the need for precise measurements of atomic masses to serve as anchor points for model developments. We present precise mass measurements of neutron-rich Ru and Pd isotopes performed at the Californium Rare Isotope Breeder Upgrade facility at Argonne National Laboratory using the Canadian Penning Trap mass spectrometer. The masses of 108 Ru, 110 Ru, and 116 Pd were measured to a relative mass precision $\delta$$m/m$ ≈ 10 -8 via the phase-imaging ion-cyclotron-resonance technique, and represent an improvement of approximately an order of magnitude over previous measurements. Further, these mass data were used in conjunction with the physically interpretable machine learning (PIML) model, which uses a mixture density neural network to model mass excesses via a mixture of Gaussian distributions. The effects of our new mass data on a Bayesian-updating of a PIML model are presented.
WANDA 2024 - Fusion Focused Sessions [Slides]
Abstract not provided.
Measurement of the prompt fission neutron spectrum from 800 keV to 10 MeV for 240 Pu(sf) and for the 240 Pu($n,f$) reaction induced by neutrons of energy from 1–20 MeV
Here, the presence of 240 Pu in nuclear fuels for reactors has resulted in high uncertainties in the results of reactor and nuclear transmutation calculations because of deficiencies in 240 Pu-related nuclear data. Specifically for the prompt fission neutron spectrum (PFNS) of 240 Pu, there is only one neutron-induced, (n,f), measurement at 0.85 MeV incident neutron energy and only one complete spontaneous fission, (sf), measurement. This limited availability of data does not sufficiently guide nuclear data evaluations of these quantities. Here we report on a measurement of both the 240 Pu(sf) and the 240 Pu(n,f) PFNS, both over the emitted neutron energy range of 0.79–10.0 MeV, and from incident neutron energies of 1.0–20.0 MeV for the (n,f) reaction. Measurements were made with a hemispherical array of liquid scintillators at the high-energy Los Alamos Neutron Science Center white neutron source at the Weapons Neutron Research facility as part of the joint LANL-LLNL Chi-Nu experimental campaign to measure actinide fission neutron spectra. These measurements are the first of their kind, and provide clear experimental evidence for second-chance fission, third chance fission, and pre-equilibrium neutron emission processes in neutron-induced fission of 240 Pu, and are the first ever measurements above 1 MeV incident neutron energy.
Consistent Nuclear Data Evaluations for Criticality Safety [Slides]
This presentation covers consistent nuclear data evaluations for criticality safety. Topics include the evaluation procedure, n+ 139 La evaluation, the work in progress for the n+ 233 U evaluation (emphasis on capture), and a concluding Summary.
Consistent Nuclear Data Evaluations for Criticality Safety
Evaluations of nuclear data are based on statistical analysis of available experimental data and their uncertainties plus model calculations and their uncertainties. As the models are currently rather limited, the evaluations are heavily biassed toward experimental data, with the caveat that a thorough analysis is also required to understand possible discrepancies between data sets. Hence, as new experimental data become available, they are incorporated into the evaluation procedure. Recent measurements of the 233 U capture to fission cross section ratio at the Los Alamos Neutron Science Center have prompted a re-evaluation of the capture cross section in the resonance and fast regions up to 250 keV. We will discuss the challenges of including the new fast neutron experimental data in an evaluation that is consistent with the resonance region. We will also discuss our consistent evaluation procedure based on the Hauser-Feshbach statistical model for nuclear reactions and its application to the evaluations of 239 Pu and 139 La neutron-induced reactions.
Complete quantification of parametric uncertainties in ( d , p ) transfer reactions
Deuteron-induced transfer reactions are a popular probe in nuclear structure and nuclear astro physics studies. The interpretation of these transfer measurements relies on reaction theory that takes as input effective interactions between the nucleons and the target nucleus. Previous work quantified the uncertainty associated with the optical potentials between the nucleons and the target. In this study, we extend that work by also including the parameters of the mean field associated with the overlap function of the final bound state, thus obtaining the full parametric uncertainty on transfer observables. We use Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulations to obtain parameter posterior distributions. We use elastic-scattering cross sections to constrain the optical potential parameters and use the asymptotic normalization coefficient of the final state to constrain the bound state interaction. We then propagate these posteriors to the transfer angular distributions and obtain confidence intervals for this observable. We study (d,p) reactions on 14 C, 16 O, and 48 Ca at energies in the range $E$ $d$ = 7 - 24 MeV. Our results show a strong reduction in uncertainty by using the asymptotic normalization coefficient as a constraint, particularly for those reactions most sensitive to ambiguities in the mean field. For those reactions, the importance of constraining the bound state interaction is equal to that of constraining the optical potentials. Furthermore, the case of 14 C is an outlier because the cross section is less sensitive to the nuclear interior. When minimal constraints are used on the parameters of the nucleon-target interaction, the 1σ uncertainties on the differential cross sections are large (~ 500-100%). However, if elastic-scattering data and the asymptotic normalization coefficient are used in the analysis, with an error of 10% (5%), this uncertainty reduces to ~ 30% (~ 15%).
Shedding light on the 239Pu fission source term with new high-precision experiments and advanced fission modeling
In the last decade, there has been a renaissance of fission research resulting in new high-precision experiments and advanced fission modeling. For instance, the Chi-Nu and CEA teams supplied, for the first time, the 239 Pu prompt fission neutron spectrum (PFNS) for broad ranges of incident and outgoing neutron energies. The CEA team also measured 239 Pu average prompt neutron multiplicities, ν ̄ p , with lower statistical uncertainties and a technique significantly different than the one used in the past. The NIFFTE collaboration provided 239 Pu( n ,f)/ 235 U( n ,f) cross section shape ratios with uncertainties below 1% utilizing a novel detector type. Advanced fission event generators were developed, among them CGMF, FIFRELIN, FREYA, and GEF, which calculate post-scission fission observables in a correlated manner. These new experimental data and more consistent fission models change the evaluated PFNS, ν ̄ p , and ( n ,f) cross sections, some only modestly, compared to ENDF/B-VIII.0. In turn, the individual new nuclear data distinctly change simulated effective neutron multiplication factors of fast critical assemblies, but their combined impact is small, while affecting the prediction of LLNL pulsed sphere neutron leakage spectra and reaction rates only within experimental uncertainties. Also, the parameters obtained from fitting to ν ̄ p reproduce various post-scission fission observables within the uncertainties of experimental data. This indicates that new differential experiments and consistent fission modeling reduce compensating errors present in ENDF/B-VIII.0.
Influence of nonstatistical properties in nuclear structure on emission of prompt fission neutrons
We report the Hauser-Feshbach fission-fragment decay (HF 3 D) model is extended to calculate the prompt fission neutron spectrum (PFNS) for the thermal-neutron-induced fission on 235 U, where the evaporated neutrons from all possible fission-fragment pairs are aggregated. By studying model parameter sensitivities on the calculated PFNS as well as nonstatistical behavior of low-lying discrete level spin distribution, we conclude that discrepancies between the aggregation calculation and the experimental PFNS seen at higher neutron emission energies can be attributed to both the primary fission-fragment yield distribution and the possible high spin states that are not predicted by the statistical theory of nuclear structure.
Status, Challenges, and Plans for Consistent Modeling and Evaluation of Fission Data: Nubar, PFNS, and FPY [Slides]
This presentation discusses the importance of consistent evaluations for fission observables. Currently, prompt fission quantities (e.g., neutron multiplicity, neutron energy spectrum, and fission product yields) are evaluated independently of one another, either with separate models or data-only/non-model evaluations (few – if any – shared model inputs) and inconsistencies can arise in evaluated data (e.g. NSE 190, 258 (2018)). They have found that consistent, model-based evaluations lead to more physical constraints on free parameters in the model, more robust predictions for other observables and other isotopes, that there are correlations between the uncertainties on different observables, and that uncertainties can be propagated to unmeasured quantities. They are working on developing models to the point where fission observables are calculated at the quality needed for an evaluation. They are striving to consistently calculate fission observables, such as $\bar{v}$, PFNS, and FPY, to a quality suitable for an evaluation. Current evaluations for fission observables use separate models for each observable (with minimal shared input) or are purely data driven. LANL models, such as the Monte Carlo CGMF and deterministic BeoH, have different strengths; the similar fission fragment initial conditions and decay models leads to consistency between the two codes (FPY can be connected to $\bar{v}$ and PFNS, even when calculated by different codes). Work is underway by Lovell to optimize the models and Neudecker is working to perform detailed uncertainty quantification. The PFNS, in particular, presents a significant challenge.
Measurement of the 239 Pu$(n, f$) prompt fission neutron spectrum from 10 keV to 10 MeV induced by neutrons of energy 1–20 MeV
Although the prompt fission neutron spectrum (PFNS) is an essential component of neutron-driven systems that has been measured for decades, there are still multiple glaring unknowns regarding the PFNS of major actinides in the fission neutron incident energy range, specifically with regard to multichance fission and pre-equilibrium neutron emission processes. The only impactful experimental 239 Pu PFNS measurements included in recent nuclear data evaluations were measured over a limited outgoing neutron energy range at thermal and 1.5-MeV average incident neutron energy, while other potentially impactful measurements have been shown to contain errors that resulted in either large uncertainty increases or in complete exclusion from nuclear data evaluation. Here, we report a measurement of the 239 Pu PFNS over a wide range of incident neutron energy (1–20 MeV) and three orders of magnitude in outgoing neutron energy (0.01–10 MeV) resulting from the Chi-Nu experiment at the Los Alamos Neutron Science Center. These results are the combination of separate PFNS measurements in the same experimental area, one using a Li-glass and the other a liquid scintillator detector array. Covariances between all PFNS data points from each detector and within each incident energy range were generated between all other data in both detector arrays and within all other incident neutron energy bins, yielding a single covariance matrix for all 1300 PFNS data points reported here. These covariances are based on a thorough assessment of systematic bias and uncertainties associated with the measurement, PFNS extraction technique, combination of data from each detector type, and other aspects of the analysis. The existence of covariances between PFNS data points in different incident neutron energy ranges yielded covariances between average PFNS energy values at each incident energy to be reported here as well, which allowed for firm statements to be made regarding a shape of a purely experimental mean PFNS energy trend for the first time. Although minor PFNS shape differences exist between the results reported here and recent nuclear data evaluations, the ENDF/B-VIII.0 and JEFF-3.3 PFNS evaluations agree reasonably well with the present results from 1-to 10-MeV incident neutron energy, which spans the well-measured 1.5-MeV incident neutron energy PFNS from Lestone and Shores as well as the onset of second-chance fission. However, while the pre-equilibrium component of the PFNS above 12-MeV incident neutron energy roughly agrees in position and magnitude with ENDF/B-VIII.0 and JEFF-3.3, clear differences relating to the relative magnitude of third-chance fission PFNS features are present in the PFNS shape and in the mean PFNS energy trends.
Consistent Evaluation of the Prompt-fission Neutron Spectrum and Multiplicity for n+ 235,238 U and n+ 239 Pu
This report was written to satisfy a FY20 NCSP milestone on 235,238 U and 239 Pu. The milestone requires to “finalize a report assessing our methodology to evaluate prompt-fission neutron spectrum (PFNS) and multiplicity consistently”. More specifically, we study whether the code CGMF can reproduce ENDF/B-VIII.0 evaluated PFNS and average prompt-fission neutron multiplicities, $\bar{v}$, for 235,238 U and 239 Pu using one joint parameter set per isotope. If CGMF is shown to be able to reasonably reproduce ENDF/B-VIII.0 within its model-parameter space, this code could be used for future consistent evaluations of PFNS and $\bar{v}$. To answer this question, we explore here the parameter space of CGMF and its impact on calculated values and whether they are close to evaluated and experimental data. We also list experimental data that would enter a future evaluation and statistics method that could be used to obtain evaluated data and covariances. We conclude that values of $\bar{v}$ calculated by CGMF are reasonably close to ENDF/B-VIII.0 data, while more work on modeling the PFNS is needed (parameter optimization and model improvements) to reliably use it for evaluations.
Direct Comparison between Bayesian and Frequentist Uncertainty Quantification for Nuclear Reactions
Until recently, uncertainty quantification in low energy nuclear theory was typically performed using frequentist approaches. However in the last few years, the field has shifted toward Bayesian statistics for evaluating confidence intervals. Although there are statistical arguments to prefer the Bayesian approach, no direct comparison is available. In this work, we compare, directly and systematically, the frequentist and Bayesian approaches to quantifying uncertainties in direct nuclear reactions. Starting from identical initial assumptions, we determine confidence intervals associated with the elastic and the transfer process for both methods, which are evaluated against data via a comparison of the empirical coverage probabilities. Expectedly, the frequentist approach is not as flexible as the Bayesian approach in exploring parameter space and often ends up in a different minimum. We also show that the two methods produce significantly different correlations. In the end, the frequentist approach produces significantly narrower uncertainties on the considered observables than the Bayesian. Lastly, our study demonstrates that the uncertainties on the reaction observables considered here within the Bayesian approach represent reality more accurately than the much narrower uncertainties obtained using the standard frequentist approach.
Preequilibrium Asymmetries in the Pu 239 ( n , f ) Prompt Fission Neutron Spectrum
The physical properties of neutrons emitted from neutron-induced fission are fundamental to our understanding of nuclear fission. However, while state-of-the-art fission models still incorporate isotropic fission neutron spectra, it is believed that the preequilibrium prefission component of these spectra is strongly anisotropic. The lack of experimental guidance on this feature has not motivated incorporation of anisotropic neutron spectra in fission models, though any significant anisotropy would impact descriptions of a fissioning system. In the present work, an excess of counts at high energies in the fission neutron spectrum of 239 Pu is clearly observed and identified as an excess of the preequilibrium prefission distribution above the postfission neutron spectrum. This excess is separated from the underlying postfission neutron spectrum, and its angular distribution is determined as a function in incident neutron energy and outgoing neutron detection angle. Comparison with neutron scattering models provides the first experimental evidence that the preequilibrium angular distribution is uncorrelated with the fission axis. The results presented here also impact the interpretation of several influential prompt fission neutron spectrum measurements.
Uncertainty quantification due to optical potentials in models for ( d , p ) reactions
Recent work has studied the uncertainty in predictions for $A(d,p)B$ reactions using the distorted-wave Born approximation (DWBA), coming from the parametrization of the effective $dA$ interactions [Lovell et al. Phys. Rev. C 95, 024611 (2017)]. There are different levels of sophistication in reaction theories for one-nucleon transfer reactions, including the adiabatic wave approximation (ADWA) which takes deuteron breakup into account to all orders. In this paper, we quantify the uncertainties associated with the ADWA method that come from the parametrization of the NA interactions and compare ADWA with DWBA. Similar to Lovell et al., we use nucleon elastic-scattering data on a wide variety of targets at the appropriate incoming and outgoing energies to constrain the optical potential input to the ADWA theory. Pulling from the χ 2 distribution, we obtain 95% confidence bands for the elastic distributions. From the resulting parameters, we predict 95% confidence bands for the ( d , p ) transfer cross sections. Results obtained with the standard uncorrelated χ 2 are compared to those using the correlated χ 2 of Lovell et al. We also repeat the DWBA calculations for the exact same reactions for comparison purposes. We find that NA elastic-scattering data provide a significant constraint to the interactions, and, when the uncertainties are propagated to the transfer reactions using ADWA, predictions are consistent with the transfer data. The angular distributions for ADWA differ from those predicted by DWBA, particularly at small angles. As in Lovell et al., confidence bands obtained using the uncorrelated χ 2 function are unrealistically narrow and become much wider when the correlated χ 2 function is considered. For most cases, the uncertainty bands obtained in ADWA are narrower than DWBA when using elastic data of similar quality and range. However, given the large uncertainties predicted from the correlated χ 2 function, at this point, the transfer data cannot discriminate between these two methods.
Exploration of the energy dependence of proton nonlocal optical potentials
Not Available
Constraining transfer cross sections using Bayes' theorem
Background: Being able to rigorously quantify the uncertainties in reaction models is crucial to moving this field forward. Even though Bayesian methods are becoming increasingly popular in nuclear theory, they have yet to be implemented and applied in reaction theory problems. Purpose: The purpose of this work is to investigate, using Bayesian methods, the uncertainties in the optical potentials generated from fits to elastic-scattering data and the subsequent uncertainties in the transfer predictions. We also study the differences in two reaction models where the parameters are constrained in a similar manner, as well as the impact of reducing the experimental error bars on the data used to constrain the parameters. Method: We use Bayes' theorem combined with a Markov chain Monte Carlo to determine posterior distributions for the parameters of the optical model, constrained by neutron-, proton-, and/or deuteron-target elastic scattering. These potentials are then used to predict transfer cross sections within the adiabatic wave approximation or the distorted-wave Born approximation. Results: We study a number of reactions involving deuteron projectiles with energies in the range 10–25 MeV/nucleon on targets with mass A = 48–208. The case of 48 Ca(d,p) 49 Ca transfer to the ground state is described in detail. A comparative study of the effect of the size of experimental errors is also performed. Five transfer reactions are studied, and their results are then compiled in order to systematically identify trends.
Extracting Hydrocarbon from Shale: An Investigation of the Factors That Influence the Decline and the Tail of the Production Curve
Understanding physical processes that control the long-term production of hydrocarbon from shale formations is important for both predicting the yield and increasing it. In this work, we explore the processes that could control the tail of the production curve by using a discrete fracture network method to calculate the total travel time from the rock matrix to small-scale fractures to the primary hydraulic fracture network. The factors investigated include matrix diffusion, extent of the small-scale fracture zone (or tributary fracture zone/TFZ) consisting of natural, reactivated and induced fractures, and the percentage of free hydrocarbon in the primary fracture network. Individual and combined parameter spaces are explored for each of these to understand the limits of these parameters as well as any systematic correlations between pairs of parameters. Although recent studies have shown that the matrix diffusion in virgin shale influences the production tail only after nearly 20 years, we demonstrate that matrix diffusion in the region of the TFZ significantly impacts production within the first year itself. Additionally, we found that the depth of TFZ fracturing region had no effect on the shape of the production curves although the total mass of the hydrocarbon produced increases with the depth. We also show that one can fit the production data using a site-specific set of parameters representing the diffusion in the TFZ, depth of the TFZ and the free hydrocarbon in the large-scale fractures.