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Lucas, Donald

Publications and source records attributed to Lucas, Donald.

Deep Learning-based Non-Stationary Bias Correction (NSBC)

This work develops the NSBC (non-stationary bias correction) methodology to correct temperature projection bias from E3SM. The NSBC deep learning framework consists of a three-part architecture: an auto-encoder for compressing the spatial information, an LSTM for predicting annual temperature mean, and a U-Net for capturing the residual bias in temperature. The non-stationary bias correction (NSBC) framework can correct the non-stationarity of the biases of the climate models, which significantly improves the accuracy of future temperature prediction and improves the overestimation of extreme high temperatures that many existing bias correction methods suffer from. Getting started 1. Obtain the historical climate simulation and observation data. The E3SM simulation data are available through https://aims2.llnl.gov/search/cmip6/. The pseudo observations, the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL)-ESM4 model (Krasting et al., 2018) are available through https://aims2.llnl.gov/search/cmip6/. The spatial resolution of E3SM and pseudo observation datasets are both regridded to a common 1° resolution grid using conservative interpolation. The regridded E3SM and pseudo observation with 1° resolution can be found throught ./data/. 2. Train the Auto-encoder model. Python 0-autoencoder.py 3. Train the LSTM Python 1-LSTM.py 4. Generate the annual mean temperature based on trained LSTM Python 2-generate_annual_mean_LSTM.py 5. Train the U-Net. Python 3-unet.py 6. Evaluation and compared with the baseline Python 4_evaluation.py Is there a deadline approaching that requires the release of yo

Lucas, Donald↗

AI Automated Discovery of New Climate Water System Knowledge from Models and Observations

This paper addresses focus area 3, “Insight gleaned from complex data.” Science Challenge: The climate-water system is highly complex, containing a multitude of positive and negative feedbacks, time scales stretching many orders-of-magnitudes, and non-linear, connected processes. Powerful artificial intelligence (AI) methods can revolutionize and automate the discovery of new knowledge and relationships in the climate-water system, which will improve understanding and predictability of extreme hydrological events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Autonomous reinforcement learning agents for improving predictions and observations of extreme climate events

Primary Focus Area: This proposal addresses focus area 2, “Predictive modeling through the use of AI techniques.” Science Challenge: Extreme climate events associated with severe weather, coastal and inland flooding, droughts, heat waves and wildfires are expected to increase in frequency and severity in the future. Due to the complexity and chaotic behavior of the climate system, accurately predicting and observing extreme climate events requires a tremendous amount of human intervention to run predictive climate simulations and deploy measurement systems. Extreme events often unfold very quickly, leaving little time to iterate on simulations or re-position instruments. Through reinforcement learning, autonomous AI agents can be designed to make real-time decisions to characterize extreme climate events more efficiently through adaptive models and targeted observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Inferring Atmospheric Release Characteristics in a Large Computer Experiment using Bayesian Adaptive Splines

An atmospheric release of hazardous material, whether accidental or intentional, can be catastrophic for those in the path of the plume. Predicting the path of a plume based on characteristics of the release (location, amount and duration) and meteorological conditions is an active research area highly relevant for emergency and long-term response to these releases. As a result, researchers have developed particle dispersion simulators to provide plume path predictions that incorporate release characteristics and meteorological conditions. However, since release characteristics and meteorological conditions are often unknown, the inverse problem is of great interest, that is, based on all the observations of the plume so far, what can be inferred about the release characteristics? This is the question we seek to answer using plume observations from a controlled release at the Diablo Canyon Nuclear Power Plant in Central California. With access to a large number of evaluations of a computationally expensive particle dispersion simulator that includes continuous and categorical inputs and spatio-temporal output, building a fast statistical surrogate model (or emulator) presents many statistical challenges, but is an essential tool for inverse modeling and sensitivity analysis. We achieve accurate emulation using Bayesian adaptive splines to model weights on empirical orthogonal functions. Here, we use this emulator as well as appropriately identifiable simulator discrepancy and observational error models to calibrate the simulator, thus finding a posterior distribution of characteristics of the release. Since the release was controlled, these characteristics are known, making it possible to compare our findings to the truth.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Matrix isolation infrared spectra of hydrogen halide and halogen complexes with nitrosyl halides

Matrix isolation infrared spectra of nitrosyl halide (XNO) complexes with HX and X2 (X = Cl, Br) are presented. The relative frequency shifts of the HX mode are modest (ClNO H-Cl, delta-nu/nu = -0.045; BrNO H-Br, delta-nu/nu = -0.026), indicating weak hydrogen bonds 1-3 kcal/mol. These shifts are accompanied by significant shifts to higher frequencies in the XN-O stretching mode (CIN-O HCl, delta-nu/nu = +0.016; BrN-O HBr, delta-nu/nu = +0.011). Similar shifts were observed for the XN-O X2 complexes (ClN-O Cl2, delta-nu/nu = +0.009; BrN-O-Br2, delta-nu/nu = +0.013). In all four complexes, the X-NO stretching mode relative shift is opposite in sign and about 1.6 times that of the NO stretching mode. These four complexes are considered to be similar in structure and charge distribution. The XN-O frequency shift suggests that complex formation is accompanied by charge withdrawal from the NO bond ranging from about .04 to .07 electron charges. The HX and X2 molecules act as electron acceptors, drawing electrons out of the antibonding orbital of NO and strengthening the XN-O bond. The implications of the pattern of vibrational shifts concerning the structure of the complexes are discussed.

Allamandola, Louis J.↗

Synchronized flash photolysis and pulse deposition in matrix isolation experiments

An apparatus is described which permits flash photolysis of a pulse-deposited gas mixture in a matrix isolation experiment. This technique obviates the limitations of in situ photolysis imposed by the cage effect and by secondary photolysis. The matrix is deposited in pulses at 30-s intervals and photolyzed sequentially by four synchronized flashlamps approximately 1 ms before the pulse strikes the cold surface. Pulsed deposition maintains adequate isolation and causes line narrowing, which enhances spectral sensitivity. The efficacy of flash photolysis combined with pulsed deposition for producing and trapping transient species was demonstrated by infrated detection of CF3 (from photolysis of CF3I/Ar mixtures) and of ClCO (from photolysis of Cl2/CO/Ar mixtures). The apparatus was used to study the photolytic decomposition of gaseous tricarbonylironcyclobutadiene, C4H4Fe(CO)3. The results indicate that the primary photolytic step is not elimination of C4H4, as suggested earlier, but rather of CO.

Allamandola, Louis J.↗