Engineering topics

Luo, Meng

Publications and source records attributed to Luo, Meng.

4 records

DOE OSTI2024

Impacts of Forest Management-Induced Productivity Changes on Future Land Use and Land Cover Change

Anthropogenic land use and land cover change (LULCC) is projected to continue in the future. However, the influence of forest management on forest productivity change and subsequent LULCC projections remains under-investigated. This study explored the impacts of forest management-induced change in forest productivity on LULCC throughout the 21st century. Specifically, we developed a framework to softly couple the Global Change Analysis Model and Global Timber Model to consider forest management-induced forest productivity change and projected future LULCC across the five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). We found future increases in forest management intensity overall drive the increase of forest productivity. The forest management-induced forest productivity change shows diverse responses across all SSPs, with a global increase from 2015 to 2100 ranging from 3.9% (SSP3) to 8.8% (SSP1). This further leads to an overall decrease in the total area with a change of land use types, with the largest decrease under SSP1 (-7.5%) and the smallest decrease under SSP3 (-0.7%) in 2100. Among land use types, considering forest management-induced change significantly reduces the expansion of managed forest and also reduces the loss of natural land in 2100 across SSPs. This suggests that ignoring forest management-induced forest productivity change underestimates the efficiency of wood production, overestimates the managed forest expansion required to meet the future demand, and consequently, potentially introduces uncertainties into relevant analyses, for example, carbon cycle and biodiversity. Thus, we advocate to better account for the impacts of forest management in future LULCC projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Unveiling the transferability of PLSR models for leaf trait estimation: lessons from a comprehensive analysis with a novel global dataset

Leaf traits are essential for understanding many physiological and ecological processes. Partial least squares regression (PLSR) models with leaf spectroscopy are widely applied for trait estimation, but their transferability across space, time, and plant functional types (PFTs) remains unclear. We compiled a novel dataset of paired leaf traits and spectra, with 47 393 records for >700 species and eight PFTs at 101 globally distributed locations across multiple seasons. Using this dataset, we conducted an unprecedented comprehensive analysis to assess the transferability of PLSR models in estimating leaf traits. While PLSR models demonstrate commendable performance in predicting chlorophyll content, carotenoid, leaf water, and leaf mass per area prediction within their training data space, their efficacy diminishes when extrapolating to new contexts. Specifically, extrapolating to locations, seasons, and PFTs beyond the training data leads to reduced R 2 (0.12–0.49, 0.15–0.42, and 0.25–0.56) and increased NRMSE (3.58–18.24%, 6.27–11.55%, and 7.0–33.12%) compared with nonspatial random cross-validation. The results underscore the importance of incorporating greater spectral diversity in model training to boost its transferability. These findings highlight potential errors in estimating leaf traits across large spatial domains, diverse PFTs, and time due to biased validation schemes, and provide guidance for future field sampling strategies and remote sensing applications.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Uncertain Spatial Pattern of Future Land Use and Land Cover Change and Its Impacts on Terrestrial Carbon Cycle Over the Arctic–Boreal Region of North America

Land use and land cover change (LULCC) represents a key process of human-Earth system interaction and has profound impacts on terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycling. As a key input for ecosystem models, future gridded LULCC data is typically spatially downscaled from regional LULCC projections by integrated assessment models, such as the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM). The uncertainty associated with the different spatial downscaling methods and its impacts on the subsequent model projections have been historically ignored and rarely examined. This study investigated this problem using two representative spatial downscaling methods and focused on their impacts on the carbon cycle over the Arctic-Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE) domain, where extensive LULCC is expected. Specifically, we used the Future Land Use Simulation model (FLUS) and the Demeter model to generate 0.25° gridded LULCC data (i.e., LULCC FLUS and LULCC Demeter , respectively) with the same input of regional LULCC projections from GCAM, under both the low (i.e., SSP126) and high (i.e., SSP585) greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The two sets of downscaled LULCC were used to drive the Community Land Model version 5 and prognostically simulate the terrestrial carbon cycle dynamics over the 21st century. The results suggest large spatial-temporal differences between LULCC FLUS and LULCC Demeter , and the spatial distributions of the needleleaf evergreen boreal tree, broadleaf deciduous boreal tree, broadleaf deciduous boreal shrub, and C3 arctic grass are particularly different under both SSP126 and SSP585. Additionally, the spatiotemporal differences are larger under SSP126 than SSP585, due to more intensive LULCC under SSP126 than SSP585 from GCAM projection. The differences in LULCC further lead to large discrepancies in the spatial patterns of projected gross primary productivity, ecosystem respiration, and net ecosystem exchange, which represent more than 79% of the contributions of future LULCC in 2100. Additionally, the difference in carbon flux under SSP126 is generally larger than those under SSP585. This study highlights the importance of considering the uncertainties induced by the spatial downscaling process in future LULCC projections and carbon cycle simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Detection and attribution of long-term and fine-scale changes in spring phenology over urban areas: A case study in New York State

Spring phenology plays an essential role in climate change, terrestrial ecosystem, and public health. Field-based monitoring and understanding of changes in spring phenology for long periods and in large regions are challenging due to the limited in-site observations. Space-based remotely sensed observations offer great potentials for monitoring decadal spring phenology changes from regional to global scales. However, the coarse-scale remotely sensed observations are insufficient to capture fine-scale spring phenology dynamics, especially in urban areas, and this makes it challenging for understanding the combined effects of climate change and urbanization on spring phenology. We derived the start of phenology season (SOS) in New York State using 30 m Landsat observations from 1990 to 2015 to understand the impact of the environment and urbanization on SOS. The results show that SOS for different years reveals heterogeneous spatial distribution. Most regions of New York State have been experiencing significant spring phenology changes in form of earlier onset of vegetation greening, ranging from 0.2 to 0.6 day/year during 1990 to 2015, and this trend varies slightly with latitudes and urbanization levels. Further, spatial correlation analysis shows that the increase in temperature and urbanization could both promote the advancement of SOS. However, the effect of urbanization (partial correlation coefficient (R) ranges from −0.289 to −0.542) on SOS is greater than the effect of temperature (R ranges from 0.006 to −0.192). The study generates a high spatio-temporal resolution spring phenology dataset for ecological, environmental and public health studies, especially in urban areas, and reveals the importance of better accounting for the urbanization effects when quantifying the SOS dynamics in phenology models.

Landsat↗