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Maasch, Kirk A.

Publications and source records attributed to Maasch, Kirk A..

9 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1993

Possible effects of anthropogenically-increased CO2 on the dynamics of climate - Implications for ice age cycles

A dynamical model, developed to account for the observed major variations of global ice mass and atmospheric CO2 during the late Cenozoic, is used to provide a quantitative demonstration of the possibility that the anthropogenically-forced increase of atmospheric CO2, if maintained over a long period of time (perhaps by tectonic forcing), could displace the climatic system from an unstable regime of oscillating ice ages into a more stable regime representative of the pre-Pleistocene. This stable regime is characterized by orbitally-forced oscillations that are of much weaker amplitude than prevailed during the Pleistocene.

Saltzman, Barry↗
NASA NTRS1993

Plio-Pleistocene time evolution of the 100-kyr cycle in marine paleoclimate records

A new time-series analysis technique (called envelope inversion), which is based on multiple taper spectral analysis, is used to address the question of an abrupt versus a gradual onset of the 100-kyr ice-age periodicity in the middle Pleistocene. Three long (greater than 2.6 m.y.) time series from Deep Sea Drilling Project site 607 (midlatitude Atlantic) and Ocean Drilling Program site 677 (equatorial Pacific) were analyzed using delta(O-18) records. Results do not yield compelling evidence for an abrupt change in the 100-kyr delta(O-18) signal. Rather, the results suggest that the 100-kyr delta(O-18) cycle is phase-locked with the 124-kyr eccentricity cycle some 300-400 kyr prior to its late Pleistocene growth in amplitude and phase lock with the 95-kyr eccentricity cycle.

Park, Jeffrey↗
NASA NTRS1992

Plio-Pleistocene time evolution of the 100-ky cycle in marine paleoclimate records

To constrain theories for the dynamical evolution of global ice mass through the late Neogene, it is important to determine whether major changes in the record were gradual or rapid. Of particular interest is the evolution of the near 100-ky ice age cycle in the middle Pleistocene. We have applied a new technique based on multiple taper spectrum analysis which allows us to model the time evolution of quasi-periodic signals. This technique uses both phase and amplitude information, and enables us to address the question of abrupt versus gradual onset of the 100-ky periodicity in the middle Pleistocene.

Park, Jeffrey↗
NASA NTRS1991

Nonlinear dynamics of global atmospheric and Earth-system processes

General Circulation Model (GCM) studies of the atmospheric response to change boundary conditions are discussed. Results are reported on an extensive series of numerical studies based on the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate Model (CCM) general circulation model. In these studies the authors determined the response to systematic changes in atmospheric CO2 ranging from 100 to 1000 ppm; to changes in the prescribed sea surface temperature (SST) in the Gulf of Mexico, such as occurred during the deglaciation phase of the last ice age; to changes in soil moisture over North America; and to changes in sea ice extent in the Southern Hemisphere. Study results show that the response of surface temperature and other variables is nearly logarithmic, with lower levels of CO2 implying greater sensitivity of the atmospheric state to changes in CO2. It was found that the surface temperature of the Gulf of Mexico exerts considerable control over the storm track and behavior of storm systems over the North Atlantic through its influence on evaporation and the source of latent heat. It was found that reductions in soil moisture can play a significant role in amplifying and maintaining North American drought, particularly when a negative soil moisture anomaly prevails late in the spring.

Saltzman, Barry↗
NASA NTRS1990

Nonlinear dynamics of global atmospheric and Earth-system processes

Researchers are continuing their studies of the nonlinear dynamics of global weather systems. Sensitivity analyses of large-scale dynamical models of the atmosphere (i.e., general circulation models i.e., GCM's) were performed to establish the role of satellite-signatures of soil moisture, sea surface temperature, snow cover, and sea ice as crucial boundary conditions determining global weather variability. To complete their study of the bimodality of the planetary wave states, they are using the dynamical systems approach to construct a low-order theoretical explanation of this phenomenon. This work should have important implications for extended range forecasting of low-frequency oscillations, elucidating the mechanisms for the transitions between the two wave modes. Researchers are using the methods of jump analysis and attractor dimension analysis to examine the long-term satellite records of significant variables (e.g., long wave radiation, and cloud amount), to explore the nature of mode transitions in the atmosphere, and to determine the minimum number of equations needed to describe the main weather variations with a low-order dynamical system. Where feasible they will continue to explore the applicability of the methods of complex dynamical systems analysis to the study of the global earth-system from an integrative viewpoint involving the roles of geochemical cycling and the interactive behavior of the atmosphere, hydrosphere, and biosphere.

Saltzman, Barry↗
NASA NTRS1989

Glacial meltwater cooling of the Gulf of Mexico - GCM implications for Holocene and present-day climates

The NCAR Community Climate Model GCM is presently used to investigate the possible effects on regional and hemispheric climates of reduced SSTs in the Gulf of Mexico, in view of delta-O-18 records and terrestrial evidence for at least two major glacial meltwater discharges after the last glacial maximum. Three numerical experiments have been conducted with imposed gulfwide SST coolings of 3, 6, and 12 C; in all cases, significant reductions arise in the North Atlantic storm-track intensity, together with a strong decrease in transient eddy water vapor transport out of the Gulf of Mexico. Other statistically significant changes occur across the Northern Hemisphere.

Oglesby, Robert J.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Calculating climate attractor dimension from delta O-18 records by the Grassberger-Procaccia algorithm

The Grassberger-Procaccia method of calculating dimension from a time series is applied to 14 late Pleistocene delta O-18 records. A step-by-step sequence leading from data to the Grassberger-Procaccia dimension is outlined, and the problems encountered when dealing with observed (as opposed to theoretical) data are discussed; for the climatic proxy data these problems include situations where the time series is not very long, is noisy and/or smoothed, and is not sampled at a constant time interval. The delta O-18 records to be used are described, and the results are presented and compared with previously published dimension calculations. New dimension interpretations are assessed, and an example using a synthetic time series that illustrates the possible error due to inconsistencies in the time scale is analyzed.

Maasch, Kirk A.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Carbon cycle instability as a cause of the late Pleistocene ice age oscillations - Modeling the asymmetric response

A dynamical model of the Pleistocene ice ages is presented, which incorporates many of the qualitative ideas advanced recently regarding the possible role of ocean circulation, chemistry, temperature, and productivity in regulating long-term atmospheric carbon dioxide variations. This model involves one additional term (and free parameter) beyond that included in a previous model (Saltzman and Sutera, 1987), providing the capacity for an asymmetric response. It is shown that many of the main features exhibited by the delta(O-18)-derived ice record and the Vostok core/delta(C-13)-derived carbon dioxide record in the late Pleistocene can be deduced as a free oscillatory solution of the model.

Saltzman, Barry↗