Engineering topics

Maria M Kuznetsova

Publications and source records attributed to Maria M Kuznetsova.

4 records

NASA NTRS2022

Unifying the Validation of Ambient Solar Wind Models

Progress in space weather research and awareness needs community-wide strategies and procedures to evaluate our modeling assets. Here we present the activities of the Ambient Solar Wind Validation Team embedded in the COSPAR ISWAT initiative. We aim to bridge the gap between model developers and end-users to provide the community with an assessment of the state-of-the-art in solar wind forecasting. To this end, we develop an open online platform for validating solar wind models by comparing their solutions with in situ spacecraft measurements. The online platform will allow the space weather community to test the quality of state-of-the-art solar wind models with unified metrics providing an unbiased assessment of progress over time. In this study, we propose a metadata architecture and recommend community-wide forecasting goals and validation metrics. We conclude with a status update of the online platform and outline future perspectives.

Space weather↗

NASA NTRS2014

Modeling Extreme 'Carrington-Type' Space Weather Events Using Three-dimensional Global MHD Simulations

There is a growing concern over possible severe societal consequences related to adverse space weather impacts on man-made technological infrastructure. In the last two decades, significant progress has been made toward the first-principles modeling of space weather events, and three-dimensional (3-D) global magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) models have been at the forefront of this transition, thereby playing a critical role in advancing our understanding of space weather. However, the modeling of extreme space weather events is still a major challenge even for the modern global MHD models. In this study, we introduce a specially adapted University of Michigan 3-D global MHD model for simulating extreme space weather events with a Dst footprint comparable to the Carrington superstorm of September 1859 based on the estimate by Tsurutani et. al., (2003). Results are presented for a simulation run with "very extreme" constructed/idealized solar wind boundary conditions driving the magnetosphere. In particular, we describe the reaction of the magnetosphere-ionosphere system and the associated induced geoelectric field on the ground to such extreme driving conditions. The model setup is further tested using input data for an observed space weather event of Halloween storm October 2003 to verify the MHD model consistence and to draw additional guidance for future work. This extreme space weather MHD model setup is designed specifically for practical application to the modeling of extreme geomagnetically induced electric fields, which can drive large currents in ground-based conductor systems such as power transmission grids. Therefore, our ultimate goal is to explore the level of geoelectric fields that can be induced from an assumed storm of the reported magnitude, i.e., Dst approx. = −1600 nT.

space weather↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Towards a flexible framework for community-wide ensemble forecasting tailored for major space environment impacts

To build continuously improving space weather predictive capabilities based on science and enable assessments and rapid implementations of advances in research into source-to-impact modelling systems we need: to assemble parts of the puzzle by solving problems focused on specific physical domains; to identify essential space environment quantities (ESEQs) passed between domains and linked to impacts; evaluate modeling capabilities for each ESEQ; connect all validated solutions from space weather origins on the sun to impacts on humans and critical infrastructure; to design displays for ensemble predictions tailored for major space weather user groups; to build a collaborative environment for efficient sharing of information and capabilities (models/data/expertise) and collaborative development. The presentation will overview existing community-wide space weather forecasting frameworks and research-to-operations pipelines and discuss opportunities to build a collaborative plug-and-play platform for interconnecting predictive capabilities developed under different space weather programs.

space weather↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Pathways to International Coordination in Space Weather

The United Nations Committee for the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space(UN-COPUOS) in its 2022 Space Weather Expert Group report, called upon the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the InternationalSpace Environment Service (ISES) and the Committee on Space Research (COSPAR) to take a leadership role in improving the global coordination of space weather activities in consultation and collaboration with other relevant actors and international organizations. The three organizations have established a framework for trusting partnership while minimizing duplication of efforts and have agreed on three distinct domains in which the particular expertise and strengths of each of the three were identified: Research and Development (COSPAR), Facilitating Integration (WMO), andServices (ISES). The next stage in building a pathway to improved coordination is to lay the same foundation with other relevant organizations and actors engaged in space weather. We will present outcomes of the first International Space Weather Coordination Forum intending to shape the future of international collaboration on space weather with the ultimate aim of increasing the community’s ability to mitigate space environment threats. We will discuss approaches to alignments of bottom-up initiatives and community-driven roadmaps with national/regional strategic planning activities and funding programs. We will also review opportunities for taking advantage ofInternational Space Weather Action Teams (ISWAT) for planning pilot projects to demonstrate the value of collaboration and coordination.

Maria M Kuznetsova↗