Engineering topics

Marie L. Ivanco

Publications and source records attributed to Marie L. Ivanco.

5 records

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Sensitivity of the ACCP Value Framework Science Benefit Score

NASA’s priorities for Earth Science are informed by the 2017-2027 Decadal Survey for Earth Science and Applications from Space of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine. In that document, five Designated Observables are identified as priorities for implementation: Aerosols, Cloud-Convection-Precipitation, Surface Biology, Mass Change, and Surface Deformation Change. In 2019, NASA initiated four multi-year studies to formulate, assess, and recommend potential Observing System concepts that are responsive to the recommendations of the Earth Science Decadal Survey. The Aerosols, Clouds, Convection, and Precipitation (ACCP) study investigates opportunities for synergistic science resulting from implementations that combine both Aerosols science objectives and Clouds, Convection, and Precipitation science objectives. For the ACCP study, a Value Framework was designed to introduce structure, transparency, and traceability in the mission down-select decision process. This paper presents a sensitivity analysis that was conducted to characterize the behavior of the science benefit score of the ACCP Value Framework. it includes derivations of the sensitivity analysis equations, numerical analyses of the behavior of the combined benefit score, and the conclusions drawn from the results of the work that was conducted. The results of this analysis were key to ensuring that the aggregated science benefit scores would enable the team to differentiate and contrast across concepts.

John McLaughlan↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

How the Allocation of Lander Functions Impacts the Cost Breakeven for Lunar In-Situ Propellant Production

This study proposes to leverage the evaluation of the cost breakeven for using lunar-derived propellants as compared to those delivered from Earth, in support of an extended human exploration campaign as defined in a companion paper, to explore this architectural question: how do choices in the number and function of different vehicles performing lunar descent and ascent impact the cost breakeven of using in-situ propellant production relative to propellant delivery from Earth for a combination of human lunar and Mars missions?

Christopher A. Jones↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Cost Breakeven Analysis of Lunar In-Situ Propellant Production for Human Missions to the Moon and Mars

NASA is preparing to return humans to the lunar surface as a first step to a human exploration campaign of Mars. Both a sustained lunar campaign and a campaign of missions to Mars will require tens to hundreds of tonnes of propellant. Although this propellant could be delivered from Earth, an alternative approach is to use the potentially vast quantities of lunar ice to enable in-situ propellant production on the lunar surface. This study evaluates the cost breakeven for using lunar-derived propellants, as opposed to those delivered from Earth, in support of an extended human exploration campaign with both a multi-year presence on the Moon as well as multiple crewed missions to Mars. In so doing, the value of lunar propellant production is considered in the context of future exploration priorities, addressing the question: over what range of human missions to the lunar surface and Mars does in-situ propellant production trade favorably with propellant delivery from Earth on the basis of cost? The results of this analysis show that the magnitude and duration of the lunar campaign, more so than the Mars campaign, drive the breakeven and that without long lifetime ISRU systems, with greater than 5 years of autonomous operation before replacement, the demand in cis-lunar space for a Mars campaign favors propellant delivery from Earth.

Christopher A. Jones↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Modified Delphi Method to Accelerate Consensus Building in Expert Judgment Elicitation

The 2017 Earth Science Decadal Survey recommends the implementation of a novel Earth Observing mission to study Aerosols, Clouds, Convection, and Precipitation. The assessment of the candidate architectures under consideration requires the use of Expert Judgment Elicitation. Some of the assessment scores are obtained through consensus among the Science Leadership Team. A modified Delphi method was developed to accelerate the consensus building process and reduce the number of cycles required to converge. This paper discusses which elements of the traditional method were modified, how the method was applied, and the impact of the modifications on generating consensus.

Expert Judgment↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Visualizations to Aid Decision-Making in the ACCP Value Framework

The Aerosols, Clouds, Convection, and Precipitation Value Framework is used to introduce structure, transparency, and traceability into the decision-making process for a study formulating and assessing potential observing system concepts to respond to the 2017-2027 Decadal Survey for Earth Science and Applications. Within the Value Framework, visualizations play an important role in presenting information and structuring conversations around that information. This paper describes three guiding principles that were applied to the design of the visualizations of the Value Framework, presents examples of visualizations that serve at least one of several functions (structuring communication, facilitating elicitation and aggregation of data, and summarizing complex information), and identifies lessons learned from the development and implementation of those visualizations. The guiding principles and lessons learned have not only contributed to the success of the Value Framework and the ACCP study, but also can be applied in other decision-making activities.

Christopher A. Jones↗