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Marshall, J. L. (ORCID:0000000307109474)

Publications and source records attributed to Marshall, J. L. (ORCID:0000000307109474).

At least 19 records

Dimensional Reduction for Sampled Priors and Application to Photometric Redshift Distributions

A typical Bayesian inference on the values of some parameters of interest q from some data D involves running a Markov Chain (MC) to sample from the posterior $p$($q$,$n$|$D$) $\propto$ $\mathcal{L}$($D$|$q$,$n$)$p$(q)$p$($n$), where n are some nuisance parameters with a separable prior. In some cases, the nuisance parameters are high-dimensional, and their prior p(n) is itself defined only by a set of samples that have been drawn from some other MC. The MC for the posterior will typically require evaluation of p(n) at arbitrary values of n, i.e., one needs to provide a density estimator over the full n space from the provided samples. But the high dimensionality of n hinders both the density estimation and the efficiency of the MC for the posterior. We describe a solution to this problem: a linear compression of the n space into a much lower-dimensional space u, which projects away directions in n space that cannot appreciably alter $\mathcal{L}$. The algorithm for doing so is a slight modification to principal components analysis, and is less restrictive on p(n) than other proposed solutions to this issue. We demonstrate this “mode projection” technique using the analysis of 2-point correlation functions of weak lensing fields and galaxy density in the Dark Energy Survey, where n is a binned representation of the redshift distribution n(z) of the galaxies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Robust Measurement of Stellar Streams around the Milky Way: Correcting Spatially Variable Observational Selection Effects in Optical Imaging Surveys

Observations of density variations in stellar streams are a promising probe of low-mass dark matter substructure in the Milky Way. However, survey systematics such as variations in seeing and sky brightness can also induce artificial fluctuations in the observed densities of known stellar streams. These variations arise because survey conditions affect both object detection and star–galaxy misclassification rates. To mitigate these effects, we use Balrog synthetic source injections in the Dark Energy Survey (DES) Y3 data to calculate detection rate variations and classification rates as functions of survey properties. We show that these rates are nearly separable with respect to survey properties and can be estimated with sufficient statistics from the synthetic catalogs. Applying these corrections reduces the standard deviation of relative detection rates across the DES footprint by a factor of 5, and our corrections significantly change the inferred linear density of the Phoenix stream when including faint objects. Additionally, for artificial streams with DES-like survey properties we are able to recover density power spectra with reduced bias. We also find that uncorrected power-spectrum results for Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST)-like data can be around 5 times more biased, highlighting the need for such corrections in future ground-based surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DELVE Milky Way Satellite Galaxy Census. I. Satellite Population and Survey Selection Function in DES, DELVE, and Pan-STARRS

The properties of Milky Way satellite galaxies have important implications for galaxy formation, reionization, and the fundamental physics of dark matter. However, the population of Milky Way satellites includes the faintest known galaxies, and current observations are incomplete. To understand the impact of observational selection effects on the known satellite population, we perform rigorous, quantitative estimates of the Milky Way satellite galaxy detection efficiency in three wide-field survey datasets: the Dark Energy Survey Year 6, the DECam Local Volume Exploration Data Release 3, and the Pan-STARRS1 Data Release 1. Together, these surveys cover ∼13,600 deg 2 to g ∼ 24.0 and ∼27,700 deg 2 to g ∼ 22.5, spanning ∼91% of the high-Galactic-latitude sky (∣b∣ ≥ 15°). We apply multiple detection algorithms over the combined footprint and recover 49 known satellites above a strict census detection threshold. To characterize the sensitivity of our census, we run our detection algorithms on a large set of simulated galaxies injected into the survey data, which allows us to develop models that predict the detectability of satellites as a function of their properties. We then fit an empirical model to our data and infer the luminosity function, radial distribution, and size–luminosity relation of Milky Way satellite galaxies. Our empirical model predicts a total of $265^{+79}_{-47}$ satellite galaxies with −20 ≤ M V ≤ 0, half-light radii of 15 ≤ r 1/2 , (pc) ≤ 3000, and galactocentric distances of 10 ≤ D GC (kpc) ≤ 300. We also identify a mild anisotropy in the angular distribution of the observed galaxies, at a significance of ∼2σ, which can be attributed to the clustering of satellites associated with the LMC.

Tan, Chin Yi [Univ. of Chicago, IL (United States)↗

Ultra-faint Milky Way Satellites Discovered in Carina, Phoenix, and Telescopium with DELVE Data Release 3

We report the discovery of three Milky Way satellite candidates: Carina IV, Phoenix III, and DELVE 7, in the third data release of the DECam Local Volume Exploration survey (DELVE). The candidate systems were identified by cross-matching results from two independent search algorithms. All three are extremely faint systems composed of old, metal-poor stellar populations (τ ≳ 10 Gyr, [Fe/H] ≲−1.4). Carina IV (M V = −2.8; r 1/2 = 40 pc) and Phoenix III (M V = −1.2; r 1/2 = 19 pc) have half-light radii that are consistent with the known population of dwarf galaxies, while DELVE 7 (M V = 1.2; r 1/2 = 2 pc) is very compact and seems more likely to be a star cluster, though its nature remains ambiguous without spectroscopic follow-up. The Gaia proper motions of stars in Carina IV ($M_{\star} = 2250^{+1180}_{-830} M_⊙$) indicate that it is unlikely to be associated with the LMC, while DECam CaHK photometry confirms that its member stars are metal poor. Phoenix III ($M_{\star} = 520^{+660}_{-290} M_⊙$) is the faintest known satellite in the extreme outer stellar halo (D GC > 100 kpc), while DELVE 7 ($M_{\star} = 60^{+120}_{-40} M_⊙$) is the faintest known satellite with D GC > 20 kpc.

Tan, Chin Yi [Univ. of Chicago, IL (United States)↗

Selection function of clusters in Dark Energy Survey year 3 data from cross-matching with South Pole Telescope detections

Context. Galaxy clusters selected based on overdensities of galaxies in photometric surveys provide the largest cluster samples. However, modeling the selection function of such samples is complicated by noncluster members projected along the line of sight (projection effects) and the potential detection of unvirialized objects (contamination). Aims. We empirically constrained the magnitude of these effects by cross-matching galaxy clusters selected in the Dark Energy Survey data with the redMaPPer algorithm with significant detections in three South Pole Telescope surveys (SZ, pol-ECS, pol-500d). Methods. For matched clusters, we augmented the redMaPPer catalog with the SPT detection significance. For unmatched objects we used the SPT detection threshold as an upper limit on the SZe signature. Using a Bayesian population model applied to the collected multiwavelength data, we explored various physically motivated models to describe the relationship between observed richness and halo mass. Results. Our analysis reveals a clear preference for models with an additional skewed scatter component associated with projection effects over a purely log-normal scatter model. We rule out significant contamination by unvirialized objects at the high-richness end of the sample. While dedicated simulations offer a well-fitting calibration of projection effects, our findings suggest the presence of redshift-dependent trends that these simulations may not have captured. Our findings highlight that modeling the selection function of optically detected clusters remains a complicated challenge that requires a combination of simulation and data-driven approaches.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Photometry of Outer Solar System Objects from the Dark Energy Survey. II. A Joint Analysis of Trans-Neptunian Absolute Magnitudes, Colors, Light Curves and Dynamics

For the 696 trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs) with absolute magnitudes 5.5 < H r < 8.2 detected in the Dark Energy Survey, we characterize the relationships between their dynamical state and physical properties—namely H r , indicating size; colors, indicating surface composition; and flux variation semiamplitude A, indicating asphericity and surface inhomogeneity. We seek “birth” physical distributions that can recreate these parameters in every dynamical class. We show that the observed colors of these TNOs are consistent with two Gaussian distributions in griz space, “near-infrared bright” (NIRB) and “near-infrared faint” (NIRF), presumably an inner and outer birth population, respectively. We find a model in which both the NIRB and NIRF H r and A distributions are independent of current dynamical states, supporting their assignment as birth populations. All objects are consistent with a common rolling p(H r ), but NIRF objects are significantly more variable. Cold classicals (CCs) are purely NIRF, while hot classical (HC), scattered, and detached TNOs are consistent with ≈ 70% NIRB and the resonance NIRB fractions show significant variation. The NIRB components of the HCs and of some resonances have broader inclination distributions than the NIRFs, i.e. their current dynamics retains information about birth location. We find evidence for radial stratification within the birth NIRB population, in that HC NIRBs are on average redder than detached or scattered NIRBs; a similar effect distinguishes CCs from other NIRFs. We estimate total object counts and masses of each class within our H r range. These results will strongly constrain models of the outer solar system.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Superclustering with the Atacama Cosmology Telescope and Dark Energy Survey. II. Anisotropic Large-scale Coherence in Hot Gas, Galaxies, and Dark Matter

Statistics that capture the directional dependence of the baryon distribution in the cosmic web enable unique tests of cosmology and astrophysical feedback. We use constrained oriented stacking of thermal Sunyaev–Zel’dovich (tSZ) maps to measure the anisotropic distribution of hot gas 2.5–40 Mpc away from galaxy clusters embedded in massive filaments and superclusters. The cluster selection and orientation (at a scale of ∼15 Mpc) use Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 3 data, while expanded tSZ maps from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope Data Release 6 enable a ∼3× more significant measurement of the extended gas compared to the technique’s proof-of-concept. Decomposing stacks into cosine multipoles of order m , we detect a dipole ( m = 1) and quadrupole ( m = 2) at 8σ–10σ, as well as evidence for m = 4 signal at up to 6σ, indicating sensitivity to late-time non-Gaussianity. We compare to Cardinal simulations with spherical gas models pasted onto dark matter halos. The fiducial tSZ data can discriminate between two models that deplete pressure differently in low-mass halos (mimicking astrophysical feedback), preferring higher average pressure in extended structures. However, uncertainty in the amount of cosmic infrared background contamination reduces the constraining power. Additionally, we apply the technique to DES galaxy density and weak lensing to study for the first time their oriented relationships with tSZ. In the tSZ-to-lensing relation, averaged on 7.5 Mpc (transverse) scales, we observe dependence on redshift but not shape or radial distance. Thus, on large scales, the superclustering of gas pressure, galaxies, and total matter is coherent in shape and extent.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The Dark Energy Survey Supernova Program: Cosmological Biases from Host Galaxy Mismatch of Type Ia Supernovae

Abstract Redshift measurements, primarily obtained from host galaxies, are essential for inferring cosmological parameters from type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia). Matching SNe to host galaxies using images is nontrivial, resulting in a subset of SNe with mismatched hosts and thus incorrect redshifts. We evaluate the host galaxy mismatch rate and resulting biases on cosmological parameters from simulations modeled after the Dark Energy Survey 5 Yr (DES-SN5YR) photometric sample. For both DES-SN5YR data and simulations, we employ the directional light radius method for host galaxy matching. In our SN Ia simulations, we find that 1.7% of SNe are matched to the wrong host galaxy, with redshift differences between the true and matched hosts of up to 0.6. Using our analysis pipeline, we determine the shift in the dark energy equation of state parameter (Δ w ) due to including SNe with incorrect host galaxy matches. For SN Ia–only simulations, we find Δ w = 0.0013 ± 0.0026 with constraints from the cosmic microwave background. Including core-collapse SNe and peculiar SNe Ia in the simulation, we find that Δ w ranges from 0.0009 to 0.0032, depending on the photometric classifier used. This bias is an order of magnitude smaller than the expected total uncertainty on w from the DES-SN5YR sample of ∼0.03. We conclude that the bias on w from host galaxy mismatch is much smaller than the uncertainties expected from the DES-SN5YR sample, but we encourage further studies to reduce this bias through better host-matching algorithms or selection cuts.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Identification of Galaxy–Galaxy Strong Lens Candidates in the DECam Local Volume Exploration Survey Using Machine Learning

We perform a search for galaxy–galaxy strong lens systems using a convolutional neural network (CNN) applied to imaging data from the first public data release of the DECam Local Volume Exploration Survey, which contains ~520 million astronomical sources covering ~4000 deg 2 of the southern sky to a 5σ point–source depth of g = 24.3, r= 23.9, i = 23.3, and z = 22.8 mag. Following the methodology of similar searches using Dark Energy Camera data, we apply color and magnitude cuts to select a catalog of ~11 million extended astronomical sources. After scoring with our CNN, the highest-scoring 50,000 images were visually inspected and assigned a score on a scale from 0 (not a lens) to 3 (very probable lens). We present a list of 581 strong lens candidates, 562 of which are previously unreported. We categorize our candidates using their human-assigned scores, resulting in 55 Grade A candidates, 149 Grade B candidates, and 377 Grade C candidates. We additionally highlight eight potential quadruply lensed quasars from this sample. Due to the location of our search footprint in the northern Galactic cap (b > 10 deg) and southern celestial hemisphere (decl. < 0 deg), our candidate list has little overlap with other existing ground-based searches. Where our search footprint does overlap with other searches, we find a significant number of high-quality candidates that were previously unidentified, indicating a degree of orthogonality in our methodology. We report properties of our candidates including apparent magnitude and Einstein radius estimated from the image separation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Cool Cores in Clusters of Galaxies in the Dark Energy Survey

We search for the presence of cool cores in optically selected galaxy clusters from the Dark Energy Survey (DES) and investigate their prevalence as a function of redshift and cluster richness. Clusters were selected from the redMaPPer analysis of three years of DES observations that have archival Chandra X-ray observations, giving a sample of 99 clusters with a redshift range of 0.11 < z < 0.87 and a richness range of 25 < λ < 207. Using the X-ray data, the core temperature was compared to the outer temperature to identify clusters where the core temperature is a factor of 0.7 or less than the outer temperature. We found a cool core fraction of approximately 20% with no significant trend in the cool core fraction with either redshift or richness.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Timing the r -process Enrichment of the Ultra-faint Dwarf Galaxy Reticulum II

The ultra-faint dwarf galaxy Reticulum II (Ret II) exhibits a unique chemical evolution history, with ${72}_{-12}^{+10}$% of its stars strongly enhanced in r-process elements. We present deep Hubble Space Telescope photometry of Ret II and analyze its star formation history. As in other ultra-faint dwarfs, the color–magnitude diagram is best fit by a model consisting of two bursts of star formation. If we assume that the bursts were instantaneous, then the older burst occurred around the epoch of reionization, forming ~80% of the stars in the galaxy, while the remainder of the stars formed ~3 Gyr later. When the bursts are allowed to have nonzero durations, we obtain slightly better fits. The best-fitting model in this case consists of two bursts beginning before reionization, with approximately half the stars formed in a short (100 Myr) burst and the other half in a more extended period lasting 2.6 Gyr. Considering the full set of viable star formation history models, we find that 28% of the stars formed within 500 ± 200 Myr of the onset of star formation. The combination of the star formation history and the prevalence of r-process-enhanced stars demonstrates that the r-process elements in Ret II must have been synthesized early in its initial star-forming phase. We therefore constrain the delay time between the formation of the first stars in Ret II and the r-process nucleosynthesis to be less than 500 Myr. This measurement rules out an r-process source with a delay time of several Gyr or more, such as GW170817.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Superclustering with the Atacama Cosmology Telescope and Dark Energy Survey. I. Evidence for Thermal Energy Anisotropy Using Oriented Stacking

The cosmic web contains filamentary structure on a wide range of scales. On the largest scales, superclustering aligns multiple galaxy clusters along intercluster bridges, visible through their thermal Sunyaev–Zel'dovich signal in the cosmic microwave background. We demonstrate a new, flexible method to analyze the hot gas signal from multiscale extended structures. We use a Compton y-map from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) stacked on redMaPPer cluster positions from the optical Dark Energy Survey (DES). Cutout images from the y-map are oriented with large-scale structure information from DES galaxy data such that the superclustering signal is aligned before being overlaid. We find evidence of an extended quadrupole moment of the stacked y signal at the 3.5σ level, demonstrating that the large-scale thermal energy surrounding galaxy clusters is anisotropically distributed. We compare our ACT × DES results with the Buzzard simulations, finding broad agreement. Using simulations, we highlight the promise of this novel technique for constraining the evolution of anisotropic, non-Gaussian structure using future combinations of microwave and optical surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Milky Way Satellite Census. IV. Constraints on Decaying Dark Matter from Observations of Milky Way Satellite Galaxies

Abstract We use a recent census of the Milky Way (MW) satellite galaxy population to constrain the lifetime of particle dark matter (DM). We consider two-body decaying dark matter (DDM) in which a heavy DM particle decays with lifetime τ comparable to the age of the universe to a lighter DM particle (with mass splitting ϵ ) and to a dark radiation species. These decays impart a characteristic “kick velocity,” V kick = ϵ c , on the DM daughter particles, significantly depleting the DM content of low-mass subhalos and making them more susceptible to tidal disruption. We fit the suppression of the present-day DDM subhalo mass function (SHMF) as a function of τ and V kick using a suite of high-resolution zoom-in simulations of MW-mass halos, and we validate this model on new DDM simulations of systems specifically chosen to resemble the MW. We implement our DDM SHMF predictions in a forward model that incorporates inhomogeneities in the spatial distribution and detectability of MW satellites and uncertainties in the mapping between galaxies and DM halos, the properties of the MW system, and the disruption of subhalos by the MW disk using an empirical model for the galaxy–halo connection. By comparing to the observed MW satellite population, we conservatively exclude DDM models with τ < 18 Gyr (29 Gyr) for V kick = 20 kms −1 (40 kms −1 ) at 95% confidence. These constraints are among the most stringent and robust small-scale structure limits on the DM particle lifetime and strongly disfavor DDM models that have been proposed to alleviate the Hubble and S 8 tensions.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

The Observed Evolution of the Stellar Mass–Halo Mass Relation for Brightest Central Galaxies

We quantify evolution in the cluster-scale stellar mass–halo mass (SMHM) relation's parameters using 2323 clusters and brightest central galaxies (BCGs) over the redshift range 0.03 ≤ z ≤ 0.60. The precision on the inferred SMHM parameters is improved by including the magnitude gap (m gap ) between the BCG and fourth-brightest cluster member (M14) as a third parameter in the SMHM relation. At fixed halo mass, accounting for m gap , through a stretch parameter, reduces the SMHM relation's intrinsic scatter. To explore this redshift range, we use clusters, BCGs, and cluster members identified using the Sloan Digital Sky Survey C4 and redMaPPer cluster catalogs and the Dark Energy Survey redMaPPer catalog. Through this joint analysis, we detect no systematic differences in BCG stellar mass, m gap , and cluster mass (inferred from richness) between the data sets. We utilize the Pareto function to quantify each parameter's evolution. We confirm prior findings of negative evolution in the SMHM relation's slope (3.5σ), and detect negative evolution in the stretch parameter (4.0σ) and positive evolution in the offset parameter (5.8σ). This observed evolution, combined with the absence of BCG growth, when stellar mass is measured within 50 kpc, suggests that this evolution results from changes in the cluster's m gap . For this to occur, late-term growth must be in the intracluster light surrounding the BCG. We also compare the observed results to IllustrisTNG 300-1 cosmological hydrodynamic simulations and find modest qualitative agreement. However, the simulations lack the evolutionary features detected in the real data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The Dark Energy Survey Bright Arcs Survey: Candidate Strongly Lensed Galaxy Systems from the Dark Energy Survey 5000 Square Degree Footprint

We report the combined results of eight searches for strong gravitational lens systems in the full 5000 square degrees of Dark Energy Survey (DES) observations. The observations accumulated by the end of the third observing season fully covered the DES footprint in five filters (grizY), with an i-band limiting magnitude (at 10σ) of 23.44. In four searches, a list of potential candidates was identified using a color and magnitude selection from the object catalogs created from the first three observing seasons. Three other searches were conducted at the locations of previously identified galaxy clusters. Cutout images of potential candidates were then visually scanned using an object viewer. An additional set of candidates came from a data-quality check of a subset of the color–coadd tiles created from the full DES six-season data set. A short list of the most promising strong-lens candidates was then numerically ranked according to whether or not we judged them to be bona fide strong gravitational lens systems. These searches discovered a diverse set of 247 strong-lens candidate systems, of which 81 are identified for the first time. We provide the coordinates, magnitudes, and photometric properties of the lens and source objects, and an estimate of the Einstein radius for 81 new systems and 166 previously reported systems. This catalog will be of use for selecting interesting systems for detailed follow up, studies of galaxy cluster and group mass profiles, as well as a training/validation set for automated strong-lens searches.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

The Evolution of AGN Activity in Brightest Cluster Galaxies

We present the results of an analysis of Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) observations of the full 2500 deg 2 South Pole Telescope (SPT)-Sunyaev–Zel'dovich cluster sample. We describe a process for identifying active galactic nuclei (AGN) in brightest cluster galaxies (BCGs) based on WISE mid-IR color and redshift. Applying this technique to the BCGs of the SPT-SZ sample, we calculate the AGN-hosting BCG fraction, which is defined as the fraction of BCGs hosting bright central AGNs over all possible BCGs. Assuming an evolving single-burst stellar population model, we find statistically significant evidence (>99.9%) for a mid-IR excess at high redshift compared to low redshift, suggesting that the fraction of AGN-hosting BCGs increases with redshift over the range of 0 < z < 1.3. The best-fit redshift trend of the AGN-hosting BCG fraction has the form (1 + z) 4.1±1.0 . These results are consistent with previous studies in galaxy clusters as well as as in field galaxies. One way to explain this result is that member galaxies at high redshift tend to have more cold gas. While BCGs in nearby galaxy clusters grow mostly by dry mergers with cluster members, leading to no increase in AGN activity, BCGs at high redshift could primarily merge with gas-rich satellites, providing fuel for feeding AGNs. If this observed increase in AGN activity is linked to gas-rich mergers rather than ICM cooling, we would expect to see an increase in scatter in the P cav versus L cool relation at z > 1. Last, this work confirms that the runaway cooling phase, as predicted by the classical cooling-flow model, in the Phoenix cluster is extremely rare and most BCGs have low (relative to Eddington) black hole accretion rates.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 Results: Measuring the Survey Transfer Function with Balrog

Abstract We describe an updated calibration and diagnostic framework, Balrog , used to directly sample the selection and photometric biases of the Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 3 (Y3) data set. We systematically inject onto the single-epoch images of a random 20% subset of the DES footprint an ensemble of nearly 30 million realistic galaxy models derived from DES Deep Field observations. These augmented images are analyzed in parallel with the original data to automatically inherit measurement systematics that are often too difficult to capture with generative models. The resulting object catalog is a Monte Carlo sampling of the DES transfer function and is used as a powerful diagnostic and calibration tool for a variety of DES Y3 science, particularly for the calibration of the photometric redshifts of distant “source” galaxies and magnification biases of nearer “lens” galaxies. The recovered Balrog injections are shown to closely match the photometric property distributions of the Y3 GOLD catalog, particularly in color, and capture the number density fluctuations from observing conditions of the real data within 1% for a typical galaxy sample. We find that Y3 colors are extremely well calibrated, typically within ∼1–8 mmag, but for a small subset of objects, we detect significant magnitude biases correlated with large overestimates of the injected object size due to proximity effects and blending. We discuss approaches to extend the current methodology to capture more aspects of the transfer function and reach full coverage of the survey footprint for future analyses.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

C/2014 UN 271 (Bernardinelli-Bernstein): The Nearly Spherical Cow of Comets

Abstract Comet C/2014 UN 271 (Bernardinelli-Bernstein), incoming from the Oort cloud, is remarkable in having the brightest (and presumably largest) nucleus of any well-measured comet and having been discovered at the heliocentric distance r h ≈ 29 au, farther than any Oort cloud comet. In this work, we describe the discovery process and observations and the properties that can be inferred from images recorded until the first reports of activity in 2021 June. The orbit has i = 95°, with a perihelion of 10.97 au to be reached in 2031 and a previous aphelion at 40,400 ± 260 au. Backward integration of the orbit under a standard Galactic tidal model and known stellar encounters suggests a perihelion of q ≈ 18 au on its previous perihelion passage 3.5 Myr ago; hence, the current data could be the first ever obtained of a comet that has not been inside Uranus’s orbit in 4 Gyr. The photometric data show an unresolved nucleus with absolute magnitude H r = 8.0, colors that are typical of comet nuclei or Damocloids, and no secular trend as it traversed the range 34–23 au. For the r -band geometric albedo p r , this implies a diameter of 150 ( p r / 0.04 ) − 0.5 km. There is strong evidence of brightness fluctuations at the ±0.2 mag level, but no rotation period can be discerned. A coma, nominally consistent with a “stationary” 1/ ρ surface brightness distribution, grew in scattering cross section at an exponential rate from A f ρ ≈ 1 to ≈150 m as the comet approached from 28 to 20 au. The activity rate is consistent with a very simple model of sublimation of a surface species in radiative equilibrium with the Sun. The inferred enthalpy of sublimation matches those of CO 2 and NH 3 . More volatile species, such as N 2 , CH 4 , and CO, must be far less abundant on the sublimating surfaces.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗