Engineering topics

Mathias, D. L.

Publications and source records attributed to Mathias, D. L..

5 records

NASA NTRS2017

Using Information from Rendezvous Missions For Best-Case Appraisals of Impact Damage to Planet Earth Caused By Natural Objects

The Asteroid Threat Assessment Project (ATAP), a part of NASAs Planetary Defense Coordination Office (PDCO) has the responsibility to appraise the range of surface damage by potential asteroid impacts on land or water. If a threat is realized, the project will provide appraisals to officials empowered to make decisions on potential mitigation actions. This paper describes a scenario for assessment of surface damage when characterization of an asteroid had been accomplished by a rendezvous mission that would be conducted by the international planetary defense community. It is shown that the combination of data from ground and in-situ measurements on an asteroid provides knowledge that can be used to pin-point its impact location and predict the level of devastation it would cause. The hypothetical asteroid 2017 PDC with a size of 160 to 290 m in diameter to be discussed at the PDC 2017 meeting is used as an example. In order of importance for appraising potential damage, information required is: (1) where will the surface impact occur? (2) What is the mass, shape and size of the asteroid and what is its entry state (speed and entry angle) at the 100 km atmospheric pierce point? And (3) is the asteroid a monolith or a rubble pile? If it is a rubble pile, what is its sub and interior structure? Item (1) is of first order importance to determine levels of devastation (loss of life and infrastructure damage) because it varies strongly on the impact location. Items (2) and (3) are used as input for ATAPs simulations to define the level of surface hazards: winds, overpressure, thermal exposure; all created by the deposition of energy during the objects atmospheric flight, andor cratering. Topics presented in this paper include: (i) The devastation predicted by 2017 PDCs impact based on initial observations using ATAPs risk assessment capability, (ii) How information corresponding to items (1) to (3) could be obtained from a rendezvous mission, and (iii) How information from a rendezvous mission could be used, along with that from ground observations and data from the literature, could provide input for an new risk analysis capability that is emerging from ATAPs research. It is concluded that this approach would result in appraisal with the least uncertainty possible (herein called the best-case) using simulation capabilities that are currently available or will be in the future.

Arnold, J. O.↗

NASA NTRS2017

A Framework for Inferring Taxonomic Class of Asteroids.

Introduction: Taxonomic classification of asteroids based on their visible / near-infrared spectra or multi band photometry has proven to be a useful tool to infer other properties about asteroids. Meteorite analogs have been identified for several taxonomic classes, permitting detailed inference about asteroid composition. Trends have been identified between taxonomy and measured asteroid density. Thanks to NEOWise (Near-Earth-Object Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer) and Spitzer (Spitzer Space Telescope), approximately twice as many asteroids have measured albedos than the number with taxonomic classifications. (If one only considers spectroscopically determined classifications, the ratio is greater than 40.) We present a Bayesian framework that provides probabilistic estimates of the taxonomic class of an asteroid based on its albedo. Although probabilistic estimates of taxonomic classes are not a replacement for spectroscopic or photometric determinations, they can be a useful tool for identifying objects for further study or for asteroid threat assessment models. Inputs and Framework: The framework relies upon two inputs: the expected fraction of each taxonomic class in the population and the albedo distribution of each class. Luckily, numerous authors have addressed both of these questions. For example, the taxonomic distribution by number, surface area and mass of the main belt has been estimated and a diameter limited estimate of fractional abundances of the near earth asteroid population was made. Similarly, the albedo distributions for taxonomic classes have been estimated for the combined main belt and NEA (Near Earth Asteroid) populations in different taxonomic systems and for the NEA population specifically. The framework utilizes a Bayesian inference appropriate for categorical data. The population fractions provide the prior while the albedo distributions allow calculation of the likelihood an albedo measurement is consistent with a given taxonomic class. These inputs allows calculation of the probability an asteroid with a specified albedo belongs to any given taxonomic class.

Asteroids↗

NASA NTRS2015

Analysis of Potentially Hazardous Asteroids

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration initiated a new project focused on Planetary Defense on October 1, 2014. The new project is funded by NASAs Near Earth Object Program (Lindley Johnson, Program Executive). This presentation describes the objectives, functions and plans of four tasks encompassed in the new project and their inter-relations. Additionally, this project provides for outreach to facilitate partnerships with other organizations to help meet the objectives of the planetary defense community. The four tasks are (1) Characterization of Near Earth Asteroids, (2) Physics-Based Modeling of Meteor Entry and Breakup (3) Surface Impact Modeling and (4) Physics-Based Impact Risk Assessment.

Asteroids↗

NASA NTRS2015

Overview of a New NASA Activity Focused on Planetary Defense

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has initiated a new Planetary Defense research activity, led by the NASA Ames Research Center. The objective of the effort is to provide tools for reliably assessing the impact damage that Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) could inflict on the Earth. This research will support decisions regarding appropriate mitigation action in the event that an impact threat is discovered. The activity includes four interrelated tasks: PHA characterization, physics-based simulations of atmospheric entry/breakup, simulations of surface damage due to airbursts, land impacts, or tsunamis, and an integrated assessment of the overall risks posed by potential PHA strikes. This paper outlines the objectives, research approaches, products, and interrelations of the activity’s four tasks, and presents an overview of their current progress and preliminary results. Companion papers in this conference provide additional details of the work in the four task areas.

Arnold, J. O.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Overview of a New NASA Activity Focused on Planetary Defense

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has initiated a new Planetary Defense research activity, led by the NASA Ames Research Center. The objective of the effort is to provide tools for reliably assessing the impact damage that Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) could inflict on the Earth. This research will support decisions regarding appropriate mitigation action in the event that an impact threat is discovered. The activity includes four interrelated tasks: PHA characterization, physics-based simulations of atmospheric entry breakup, simulations of surface damage due to airbursts, land impacts, or tsunamis, and an integrated assessment of the overall risks posed by potential PHA strikes. This paper outlines the objectives, research approaches, products, and interrelations of the activity's four tasks, and presents an overview of their current progress and preliminary results. Companion papers in this conference provide additional details of the work in the four task areas.

Arnold, J. O.↗