Mattfeld, Bryan | Search NASA

NASA NTRS2016

The Exploration of Mars Launch and Assembly Simulation

Advancing human exploration of space beyond Low Earth Orbit, and ultimately to Mars, is of great interest to NASA, other organizations, and space exploration advocates. Various strategies for getting to Mars have been proposed. These include NASA's Design Reference Architecture 5.0, a near-term flyby of Mars advocated by the group Inspiration Mars, and potential options developed for NASA's Evolvable Mars Campaign. Regardless of which approach is used to get to Mars, they all share a need to visualize and analyze their proposed campaign and evaluate the feasibility of the launch and on-orbit assembly segment of the campaign. The launch and assembly segment starts with flight hardware manufacturing and ends with final departure of a Mars Transfer Vehicle (MTV), or set of MTVs, from an assembly orbit near Earth. This paper describes a discrete event simulation based strategic visualization and analysis tool that can be used to evaluate the launch campaign reliability of any proposed strategy for exploration beyond low Earth orbit. The input to the simulation can be any manifest of multiple launches and their associated transit operations between Earth and the exploration destinations, including Earth orbit, lunar orbit, asteroids, moons of Mars, and ultimately Mars. The simulation output includes expected launch dates and ascent outcomes i.e., success or failure. Running 1,000 replications of the simulation provides the capability to perform launch campaign reliability analysis to determine the probability that all launches occur in a timely manner to support departure opportunities and to deliver their payloads to the intended orbit. This allows for quantitative comparisons between alternative scenarios, as well as the capability to analyze options for improving launch campaign reliability. Results are presented for representative strategies.

Cates, Grant↗

NASA NTRS2016

The Exploration of Mars Launch and Assembly Simulation

Advancing human exploration of space beyond Low Earth Orbit, and ultimately to Mars, is of great interest to NASA, other organizations, and space exploration advocates. Various strategies for getting to Mars have been proposed. These include NASA's Design Reference Architecture 5.0, a near-term flyby of Mars advocated by the group Inspiration Mars, and potential options developed for NASA's Evolvable Mars Campaign. Regardless of which approach is used to get to Mars, they all share a need to visualize and analyze their proposed campaign and evaluate the feasibility of the launch and on-orbit assembly segment of the campaign. The launch and assembly segment starts with flight hardware manufacturing and ends with final departure of a Mars Transfer Vehicle (MTV), or set of MTVs, from an assembly orbit near Earth. This paper describes a discrete event simulation based strategic visualization and analysis tool that can be used to evaluate the launch campaign reliability of any proposed strategy for exploration beyond low Earth orbit. The input to the simulation can be any manifest of multiple launches and their associated transit operations between Earth and the exploration destinations, including Earth orbit, lunar orbit, asteroids, moons of Mars, and ultimately Mars. The simulation output includes expected launch dates and ascent outcomes i.e., success or failure. Running 1,000 replications of the simulation provides the capability to perform launch campaign reliability analysis to determine the probability that all launches occur in a timely manner to support departure opportunities and to deliver their payloads to the intended orbit. This allows for quantitative comparisons between alternative scenarios, as well as the capability to analyze options for improving launch campaign reliability. Results are presented for representative strategies.

Cates, Grant↗

NASA NTRS2015

Comparison of Human Exploration Architecture and Campaign Approaches

As part of an overall focus on space exploration, National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) continues to evaluate potential approaches for sending humans beyond low Earth orbit (LEO). In addition, various external organizations are studying options for beyond LEO exploration. Recent studies include NASA's Evolvable Mars Campaign and Design Reference Architecture (DRA) 5.0, JPL's Minimal Mars Architecture; the Inspiration Mars mission; the Mars One campaign; and the Global Exploration Roadmap (GER). Each of these potential exploration constructs applies unique methods, architectures, and philosophies for human exploration. It is beneficial to compare potential approaches in order to better understand the range of options available for exploration. Since most of these studies were conducted independently, the approaches, ground rules, and assumptions used to conduct the analysis differ. In addition, the outputs and metrics presented for each construct differ substantially. This paper will describe the results of an effort to compare and contrast the results of these different studies under a common set of metrics. The paper will first present a summary of each of the proposed constructs, including a description of the overall approach and philosophy for exploration. Utilizing a common set of metrics for comparison, the paper will present the results of an evaluation of the potential benefits, critical challenges, and uncertainties associated with each construct. The analysis framework will include a detailed evaluation of key characteristics of each construct. These will include but are not limited to: a description of the technology and capability developments required to enable the construct and the uncertainties associated with these developments; an analysis of significant operational and programmatic risks associated with that construct; and an evaluation of the extent to which exploration is enabled by the construct, including the destinations visited and the exploration capabilities provided at those destinations. Based upon the comparison of constructs, the paper will identify trends and lessons learned across all of the candidate studies.

Goodliff, Kandyce↗

NASA NTRS2015

Comparison of Spares Logistics Analysis Techniques for Long Duration Human Spaceflight

As the durations and distances involved in human exploration missions increase, the logistics associated with the repair and maintenance becomes more challenging. Whereas the operation of the International Space Station (ISS) depends upon regular resupply from the Earth, this paradigm may not be feasible for future missions. Longer mission durations result in higher probabilities of component failures as well as higher uncertainty regarding which components may fail, and longer distances from Earth increase the cost of resupply as well as the speed at which the crew can abort to Earth in the event of an emergency. As such, mission development efforts must take into account the logistics requirements associated with maintenance and spares. Accurate prediction of the spare parts demand for a given mission plan and how that demand changes as a result of changes to the system architecture enables full consideration of the lifecycle cost associated with different options. In this paper, we utilize a range of analysis techniques - Monte Carlo, semi-Markov, binomial, and heuristic - to examine the relationship between the mass of spares and probability of loss of function related to the Carbon Dioxide Removal System (CRS) for a notional, simplified mission profile. The Exploration Maintainability Analysis Tool (EMAT), developed at NASA Langley Research Center, is utilized for the Monte Carlo analysis. We discuss the implications of these results and the features and drawbacks of each method. In particular, we identify the limitations of heuristic methods for logistics analysis, and the additional insights provided by more in-depth techniques. We discuss the potential impact of system complexity on each technique, as well as their respective abilities to examine dynamic events. This work is the first step in an effort that will quantitatively examine how well these techniques handle increasingly more complex systems by gradually expanding the system boundary.

Owens, Andrew↗

NASA NTRS2015

Logistics Needs for Potential Deep Space Mission Scenarios Post Asteroid Redirect Crewed Mission

The Asteroid Redirect Mission (ARM) is currently being explored as the next step towards deep space human exploration, with the ultimate goal of reaching Mars. NASA is currently investigating a number of potential human exploration missions, which will progressively increase the distance and duration that humans spend away from Earth. Missions include extended human exploration in cis-lunar space which, as conceived, would involve durations of around 60 days, and human missions to Mars, which are anticipated to be as long as 1000 days. The amount of logistics required to keep the crew alive and healthy for these missions is significant. It is therefore important that the design and planning for these missions include accurate estimates of logistics requirements. This paper provides a description of a process and calculations used to estimate mass and volume requirements for crew logistics, including consumables, such as food, personal items, gasses, and liquids. Determination of logistics requirements is based on crew size, mission duration, and the degree of closure of the environmental control life support system (ECLSS). Details are provided on the consumption rates for different types of logistics and how those rates were established. Results for potential mission scenarios are presented, including a breakdown of mass and volume drivers. Opportunities for mass and volume reduction are identified, along with potential threats that could possibly increase requirements.

Lopez, Pedro, Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Trades Between Opposition and Conjunction Class Trajectories for Early Human Missions to Mars

Candidate human missions to Mars, including NASA's Design Reference Architecture 5.0, have focused on conjunction-class missions with long crewed durations and minimum energy trajectories to reduce total propellant requirements and total launch mass. However, in order to progressively reduce risk and gain experience in interplanetary mission operations, it may be desirable that initial human missions to Mars, whether to the surface or to Mars orbit, have shorter total crewed durations and minimal stay times at the destination. Opposition-class missions require larger total energy requirements relative to conjunction-class missions but offer the potential for much shorter mission durations, potentially reducing risk and overall systems performance requirements. This paper will present a detailed comparison of conjunction-class and opposition-class human missions to Mars vicinity with a focus on how such missions could be integrated into the initial phases of a Mars exploration campaign. The paper will present the results of a trade study that integrates trajectory/propellant analysis, element design, logistics and sparing analysis, and risk assessment to produce a comprehensive comparison of opposition and conjunction exploration mission constructs. Included in the trade study is an assessment of the risk to the crew and the trade offs between the mission duration and element, logistics, and spares mass. The analysis of the mission trade space was conducted using four simulation and analysis tools developed by NASA. Trajectory analyses for Mars destination missions were conducted using VISITOR (Versatile ImpulSive Interplanetary Trajectory OptimizeR), an in-house tool developed by NASA Langley Research Center. Architecture elements were evaluated using EXploration Architecture Model for IN-space and Earth-to-orbit (EXAMINE), a parametric modeling tool that generates exploration architectures through an integrated systems model. Logistics analysis was conducted using NASA's Human Exploration Logistics Model (HELM), and sparing allocation predictions were generated via the Exploration Maintainability Analysis Tool (EMAT), which is a probabilistic simulation engine that evaluates trades in spacecraft reliability and sparing requirements based on spacecraft system maintainability and reparability.

Mattfeld, Bryan↗