Engineering topics

McGill, Peter

Publications and source records attributed to McGill, Peter.

5 records

DOE OSTI2024

Investigating the mixing between two black hole populations in LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA GWTC-3

Here, we introduce a population model to analyze the mixing between hypothesised power-law and ~ 35M ⊙ Gaussian bump black hole populations in the latest gravitational wave catalog, GWTC 3, estimating their co-location and separation. We find a relatively low level of mixing, $3.1^{+5.0}_{-3.1}$%, between the power-law and Gaussian populations, compared to the percentage of mergers containing two Gaussian bump black holes, $5.0^{+3.2}_{-1.7}$%. Our analysis indicates that black holes within the Gaussian bump are generally separate from the power-law population, with only a minor fraction engaging in mixing and contributing to the $\mathcal{M}$ ~ 14M ⊙ peak in the chirp mass. This leads us to identify a distinct population of Binary Gaussian Black Holes (BGBHs) that arise from mergers within the Gaussian bump. We suggest that current theories for the formation of the massive 35M ⊙ Gaussian bump population may need to reevaluate the underlying mechanisms that drive the preference for BGBHs.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

A high internal heat flux and large core in a warm Neptune exoplanet

Interactions between exoplanetary atmospheres and internal properties have long been proposed to be drivers of the inflation mechanisms of gaseous planets and apparent atmospheric chemical disequilibrium conditions. However, transmission spectra of exoplanets have been limited in their ability to observationally confirm these theories owing to the limited wavelength coverage of the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) and inferences of single molecules, mostly H 2 O. Here, in this work, we present the panchromatic transmission spectrum of the approximately 750 K, low-density, Neptune-sized exoplanet WASP-107b using a combination of HST Wide Field Camera 3 (WFC3) and JWST Near-Infrared Camera (NIRCam) and Mid-Infrared Instrument (MIRI). From this spectrum, we detect spectroscopic features resulting from H 2 O (21σ), CH 4 (5σ), CO (7σ), CO 2 (29σ), SO 2 (9σ) and NH 3 (6σ). The presence of these molecules enables constraints on the atmospheric metal enrichment (M/H is 10–18× solar), vertical mixing strength (log 10 K zz = 8.4–9.0 cm 2 s -1 ) and internal temperature (>345 K). The high internal temperature is suggestive of tidally driven inflation4 acting on a Neptune-like internal structure, which can naturally explain the large radius and low density of the planet. These findings suggest that eccentricity-driven tidal heating is a critical process governing atmospheric chemistry and interior-structure inferences for most of the cool (<1,000 K) super-Earth-to-Saturn-mass exoplanet population.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Methods for Incorporating Model Uncertainty into Exoplanet Atmospheric Analysis

A key goal of exoplanet spectroscopy is to measure atmospheric properties, such as abundances of chemical species, in order to connect them to our understanding of atmospheric physics and planet formation. In this new era of high-quality JWST data, it is paramount that these measurement methods are robust. When comparing atmospheric models to observations, multiple candidate models may produce reasonable fits to the data. Typically, conclusions are reached by selecting the best-performing model according to some metric. This ignores model uncertainty in favor of specific model assumptions, potentially leading to measured atmospheric properties that are overconfident and/or incorrect. In this paper, we compare three ensemble methods for addressing model uncertainty by combining posterior distributions from multiple analyses: Bayesian model averaging, a variant of Bayesian model averaging using leave-one-out predictive densities, and stacking of predictive distributions. We demonstrate these methods by fitting the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) + Spitzer transmission spectrum of the hot Jupiter HD 209458b using models with different cloud and haze prescriptions. All of our ensemble methods lead to uncertainties on retrieved parameters that are larger but more realistic and consistent with physical and chemical expectations. Since they have not typically accounted for model uncertainty, uncertainties of retrieved parameters from HST spectra have likely been underreported. We recommend stacking as the most robust model combination method. Our methods can be used to combine results from independent retrieval codes and from different models within one code. They are also widely applicable to other exoplanet analysis processes, such as combining results from different data reductions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Possible routes to a strong science case for a joint CLEoPATRA-Roman microlensing survey

The Contemporaneous LEnsing Parallax and Autonomous TRansient Array (CLEoPATRA) is a mis sion concept for a space-based microlensing survey, proposed to enhance science for the Roman Space Telescope (RST) microlensing survey. From CLEoPATRA’s planned vantage point in geosynchronous equatorial orbit (GEO), it will observe microlensing events simultaneously and from a different point of view to RST at L2. This joint L2-GEO observation baseline gives a projected angular separation of order the size of the characteristic angular lensing scale of Free-Floating-Planets (FFPs) in the Galaxy, making it powerful for constraining FFP properties. We find that a strong science case will demonstrate which parts of the FFP parameter space a joint RST-CLEoPATRA survey will give lead ing lens constraints compared with competing ground- and space- based RST observatory companions (e.g., PRIME, Euclid). Both the simulations and framework that connect telescope capabilities to physical constraints already exist for RST FFPs and can be used to demonstrate the power of joint RST-CLEoPATRA survey, with the addition of a simulated CLEoPATRA event blending distribution. Population-level FFP constraints could also be calculated by adapting ongoing black hole microlensing research at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. We also find that considering CLEoPATRA as a third space-based observatory (in addition to RST and Euclid/PRIME), which will break microlensing degeneracies leading to unambiguous FFP constraints, is worth investigating as part of a science case. Finally, we highlight possible auxiliary CLEoPATRA science cases including relieving tension between the RST Core Community Surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Search for Predicted Astrometric Microlensing Events by Nearby Brown Dwarfs*

Gravitational microlensing has the potential to provide direct gravitational masses of single, free-floating brown dwarfs, independent of evolutionary and atmospheric models. The proper motions and parallaxes of nearby brown dwarfs can be used to predict close future alignments with distant background stars that cause a microlensing event. Targeted astrometric follow up of the predicted microlensing events permits the brown dwarf’s mass to be measured. Predicted microlensing events are typically found via searching for a peak threshold signal using an estimate of the lens mass. We develop a novel method that finds predicted events that instead will lead to a target lens-mass precision. The main advantage of our method is that it does not require a lens-mass estimate. We use this method to search for predicted astrometric microlensing events occurring between 2014 and 2032 using a catalog of 1225 low-mass star and brown-dwarf lenses in the Solar Neighborhood of spectral type M6 or later and a background source catalog from DECaLS Data Release 9. The background source catalog extends to g = 23.95, providing a more dense catalog compared to Gaia. Our search did not reveal any upcoming microlensing events. We estimate the rate of astrometric microlensing event for brown dwarfs in the Legacy Survey and find it to be low ~10 -5 yr -1 . We recommend carrying out targeted searches for brown dwarfs in front of the Galactic Bulge and Plane to find astrometric microlensing events that will allow the masses of single, free-floating brown dwarfs to be measured.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗