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McNider, Richard T.

Publications and source records attributed to McNider, Richard T..

At least 19 records

GC23G-1310: Investigation Into the Effects of Climate Variability and Land Cover Change on the Hydrologic System of the Lower Mekong Basin

The Lower Mekong Basin (LMB) is an economically and ecologically important region that experiences hydrologic hazards such as floods and droughts, which can directly affect human well-being and limit economic growth and development. To effectively develop long-term plans for addressing hydrologic hazards, the regional hydrological response to climate variability and land cover change needs to be evaluated. This research aims to investigate how climate variability, specifically variations in the precipitation regime, and land cover change will affect hydrologic parameters both spatially and temporally within the LMB. The research goal is achieved by (1) modeling land cover change for a baseline land cover change scenario as well as changes in land cover with increases in forest or agriculture and (2) using projected climate variables and modeled land cover data as inputs into the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model to simulate the changes to the hydrologic system. The VIC model outputs were analyzed against historic values to understand the relative contribution of climate variability and land cover to change, where these changes occur, and to what degree these changes affect the hydrology. This study found that the LMB hydrologic system is more sensitive to climate variability than land cover change. On average, climate variability was found to increase discharge and evapotranspiration (ET) while decreasing water storage. The change in land cover show that increasing forest area will slightly decrease discharge and increase ET while increasing agriculture area increases discharge and decreases ET. These findings will help the LMB by supporting individual country policy to plan for future hydrologic changes as well as policy for the basin as a whole.

Hydrology↗

Impact of Land Surface Heterogeneity on Mesoscale Atmospheric Dispersion

Prior numerical modelling studies show that atmospheric dispersion is sensitive to surface heterogeneities, but past studies do not consider the impact of a realistic distribution of surface heterogeneities on mesoscale atmospheric dispersion. While these focussed on dispersion in the convective boundary layer, the present work also considers dispersion in the nocturnal boundary layer and above. Using a Lagrangian particle dispersion model (LPDM) coupled to the Eulerian Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), the impact of topographic, vegetation, and soil moisture heterogeneities on daytime and nighttime atmospheric dispersion is examined. In addition, the sensitivity to the use of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-derived spatial distributions of vegetation characteristics on atmospheric dispersion is also studied. The impact of vegetation and terrain heterogeneities on atmospheric dispersion is strongly modulated by soil moisture, with the nature of dispersion switching from non-Gaussian to near- Gaussian behaviour for wetter soils (fraction of saturation soil moisture content exceeding 40%). For drier soil moisture conditions, vegetation heterogeneity produces differential heating and the formation of mesoscale circulation patterns that are primarily responsible for non-Gaussian dispersion patterns. Nighttime dispersion is very sensitive to topographic, vegetation, soil moisture, and soil type heterogeneity and is distinctly non-Gaussian for heterogeneous land-surface conditions. Sensitivity studies show that soil type and vegetation heterogeneities have the most dramatic impact on atmospheric dispersion. To provide more skillful dispersion calculations, we recommend the utilisation of satellite-derived vegetation characteristics coupled with data assimilation techniques that constrain soil-vegetation-atmosphere transfer (SVAT) models to generate realistic spatial distributions of surface energy fluxes.

Wu, Yuling↗

Satellite-Based Model Parameterization of Diabatic Heating

Future meteorological satellites are expected to provide much needed fine-scale information that can improve the accuracy of weather and climate models. As one application of this improved capability, we introduce the concept of a generalized parameterization framework using satellite datasets that will increase the accuracy and the computational efficiency of weather and climate modeling. In an atmospheric model, several different parameterizations usually are used to reproduce the various physical processes. However, it is generally unrealistic to separate the processes in this artificial way since the observations and physics make no such artificial separation. Thus, we propose a new unified parameterization framework to remove the unrealistic separation between parameterizations.

Pielke, Roger, Sr.↗

Application of Land Surface Data Assimilation to Simulations of Sea Breeze Circulations

A technique has been developed for assimilating GOES-derived skin temperature tendencies and insolation into the surface energy budget equation of a mesoscale model so that the simulated rate of temperature change closely agrees with the satellite observations. A critical assumption of the technique is that the availability of moisture (either from the soil or vegetation) is the least known term in the model's surface energy budget. Therefore, the simulated latent heat flux, which is a function of surface moisture availability, is adjusted based upon differences between the modeled and satellite- observed skin temperature tendencies. An advantage of this technique is that satellite temperature tendencies are assimilated in an energetically consistent manner that avoids energy imbalances and surface stability problems that arise from direct assimilation of surface shelter temperatures. The fact that the rate of change of the satellite skin temperature is used rather than the absolute temperature means that sensor calibration is not as critical. The sea/land breeze is a well-documented mesoscale circulation that affects many coastal areas of the world including the northern Gulf Coast of the United States. The focus of this paper is to examine how the satellite assimilation technique impacts the simulation of a sea breeze circulation observed along the Mississippi/Alabama coast in the spring of 2001. The technique is implemented within the PSUNCAR MM5 V3-5 and applied at spatial resolutions of 12- and 4-km. It is recognized that even 4-km grid spacing is too coarse to explicitly resolve the detailed, mesoscale structure of sea breezes. Nevertheless, the model can forecast certain characteristics of the observed sea breeze including a thermally direct circulation that results from differential low-level heating across the land-sea interface. Our intent is to determine the sensitivity of the circulation to the differential land surface forcing produced via the assimilation of GOES skin temperature tendencies. Results will be quantified through statistical verification techniques.

Mackaro, Scott↗

Land Surface Data Assimilation and the Gulf Coast Sea-Breeze

A technique has been developed for assimilating GOES-derived skin temperature tendencies and insolation into the surface energy budget equation of a mesoscale model so that the simulated rate of temperature change closely agrees with the satellite observations. A critical assumption of the technique is that the availability of moisture (either from the soil or vegetation) is the least known term in the model's surface energy budget. Therefore, the simulated latent heat flux, which is a function of surface moisture availability, is adjusted based upon differences between the modeled and satellite observed skin temperature tendencies. An advantage of this technique is that satellite temperature tendencies are assimilated in an energetically consistent manner that avoids energy imbalances and surface stability problems that arise from direct assimilation of surface shelter temperatures. The fact that the rate of change of the satellite skin temperature is used rather than the absolute temperature means that sensor calibration is not as critical. The focus of this paper is to examine how the satellite assimilation technique impacts simulations of near-surface meteorology on the 4- to 48-hour time scale. The technique is implemented within the PSU/NCAR MM5 V34 and applied on a 36-km CONUS domain and a 12-km nest centered over Oklahoma. Two Friday periods during 2000 were selected for study, one during the warm season (May-June) and the other in the cold season (Nov-Dec). Bulk verification statistics (BIAS and RMSE) of surface air temperature and dewpoint show that the assimilation technique can improve numerical simulations on both regional and continental scales. Comparison of the simulated surface energy and water fluxes with observations from Energy Balance Bowen Ratio measurements taken at CART/ARM sites in the Southern Great Plains showed the assimilation technique produces a realistic argument of the Bowen ratio in both seasons. Additional runs with the Oregon State University land surface scheme as implemented within MM5 will be made and comparisons with assimilation results will be presented at the meeting.

Lapenta, William M.↗

Land Surface Data Assimilation and the Northern Gulf Coast Land/Sea Breeze

A technique has been developed for assimilating GOES-derived skin temperature tendencies and insolation into the surface energy budget equation of a mesoscale model so that the simulated rate of temperature change closely agrees with the satellite observations. A critical assumption of the technique is that the availability of moisture (either from the soil or vegetation) is the least known term in the model's surface energy budget. Therefore, the simulated latent heat flux, which is a function of surface moisture availability, is adjusted based upon differences between the modeled and satellite observed skin temperature tendencies. An advantage of this technique is that satellite temperature tendencies are assimilated in an energetically consistent manner that avoids energy imbalances and surface stability problems that arise from direct assimilation of surface shelter temperatures. The fact that the rate of change of the satellite skin temperature is used rather than the absolute temperature means that sensor calibration is not as critical. The sea/land breeze is a well-documented mesoscale circulation that affects many coastal areas of the world including the northern Gulf Coast of the United States. The focus of this paper is to examine how the satellite assimilation technique impacts the simulation of a sea breeze circulation observed along the Mississippi/Alabama coast in the spring of 2001. The technique is implemented within the PSU/NCAR MM5 V3-4 and applied on a 4-km domain for this particular application. It is recognized that a 4-km grid spacing is too coarse to explicitly resolve the detailed, mesoscale structure of sea breezes. Nevertheless, the model can forecast certain characteristics of the observed sea breeze including a thermally direct circulation that results from differential low-level heating across the land-sea interface. Our intent is to determine the sensitivity of the circulation to the differential land surface forcing produced via the assimilation of GOES skin temperature tendencies. Results will be quantified through statistical verification techniques.

Lapenta, William M.↗

Use of Satellite Data Assimilation to Infer Land Surface Thermal Inertia

There are two important but observationally uncertain parameters in the grid averaged surface energy budgets of mesoscale models - surface moisture availability and thermal heat capacity. A technique has been successfully developed for assimilating Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) skin temperature tendencies during the mid-morning time frame to improve specification of surface moisture. In a new application of the technique, the use of satellite skin temperature tendencies in early evening is explored to improve specification of the surface thermal heat capacity. Together, these two satellite assimilation constraints have been shown to significantly improve the characterization of the surface energy budget of a mesoscale model on fine spatial scales. The GOES assimilation without the adjusted heat capacity was run operationally during the International H2O Project on a 12-km grid. This paper presents the results obtained when using both the moisture availability and heat capacity retrievals in concert. Preliminary results indicate that retrieved moisture availability alone improved the verification statistics of 2-meter temperature and dew point forecasts. Results from the 1.5 month long study period using the bulk heat capacity will be presented at the meeting.

Lapenta, William↗

Assimilation of GOES Land Surface Data Within a Rapid Update Cycle Format: Impact on MM5 Warm Season QPF

A technique has been developed for assimilating GOES-derived skin temperature tendencies and insolation into the surface energy budget equation of a mesoscale model so that the simulated rate of temperature change closely agrees with the satellite observations. A critical assumption of the technique is that the availability of moisture (either from the soil or vegetation) is the least known term in the model's surface energy budget. Therefore, the simulated latent heat flux, which is a function of surface moisture availability, is adjusted based upon differences between the modeled and satellite-observed skin temperature tendencies. An advantage of this technique is that satellite temperature tendencies are assimilated in an energetically consistent manner that avoids energy imbalances and surface stability problems that arise from direct assimilation of surface shelter temperatures. The fact that the rate of change of the satellite skin temperature is used rather than the absolute temperature means that sensor calibration is not as critical. The focus of this paper is to examine how the satellite assimilation technique impacts simulations of near-surface meteorology on the 0-to 12-hour time scale when implemented within a local rapid update cycle (LRUC) format. The PSU/NCAR MM5 V34 is used and configured with a 36-km CONUS domain and a 12-km nest centered over the southeastern US. The LRUC format consists of a sequence of 12-hour forecasts initialized every hour between 12 and 18 UTC seven days a week. GOES skin temperature tendencies and solar insolation are assimilated in a 1-hour period prior to the start of each twelve-hour forecast. A unique aspect of the LRUC is the satellite assimilation and the continuous recycling of the adjusted moisture availability field from one forecast cycle to the next. Preliminary results for a seven-day trial period indicate that hourly LST tendencies assimilated in a 1 hour LRUC showed improved simulated air and dewpoint temperatures for all cycles on each day. The LRUC will be used during the 2001 summer months to identify the impact of the assimilation on warm season QPF Results will be presented at the meeting.

Lapenta, William M.↗

Assimilation of GOES Land Surface Data into a Mesoscale Models

A technique has been developed for assimilating Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES)-derived skin temperature tendencies and insolation into the surface energy budget equation of a mesoscale model so that the simulated rate of temperature change closely agrees with the satellite observations. A critical assumption of the technique is that the availability of moisture (either from the soil or vegetation) is the least known term in the model's surface energy budget. Therefore, the simulated latent heat flux, which is a function of surface moisture availability, is adjusted based upon differences between the modeled and satellite-observed skin temperature tendencies. An advantage of this technique is that satellite temperature tendencies are assimilated in an energetically consistent manner that avoids energy imbalances and surface stability problems that arise from direct assimilation of surface shelter temperatures. The fact that the rate of change of the satellite skin temperature is used rather than the absolute temperature means that sensor calibration is not as critical. The assimilation technique has been applied to the Oklahoma-Kansas region during the spring-summer 2000 time period when dynamic changes in vegetation cover occur. In April, central Oklahoma is characterized by large NDVI associated with winter wheat while surrounding areas are primarily rangeland with lower NDVI. In July the vegetation pattern reverses as the central wheat area changes to low NDVI due to harvesting and the surrounding rangeland is greener than it was in April. The goal of this study is to determine if assimilating satellite land surface data can improve simulation of the complex spatial distribution of surface energy and water fluxes across this region. The PSU/NCAR NM5 V3 system is used in this study. The grid configuration consists of a 36-km CONUS domain and a 12-km nest over the area of interest. Bulk verification statistics (BIAS and RMSE) of surface air temperature and dewpoint indicates that assimilation of the satellite data results reduces both the bias and RMSE for both state variables. In addition, comparison of model data with ARM/CART EBBR flux observations reveals that the assimilation technique adjusts the bowen ratio in a realistic fashion.

Lapenta, William M.↗

Assimilation of GOES Land Surface Data: Benefits to Numerical Weather Prediction

A technique has been developed for assimilating GOES-derived skin temperature tendencies and insolation into the surface energy budget equation of a mesoscale model so that the simulated rate of temperature change closely agrees with the satellite observations. A critical assumption of the technique is that the availability of moisture (either from the soil or vegetation) is the least known term in the model's surface energy budget. Therefore, the simulated latent heat flux, which is a function of surface moisture availability, is adjusted based upon differences between the modeled and satellite observed skin temperature tendencies. An advantage of this technique is that satellite temperature tendencies are assimilated in an energetically consistent manner that avoids energy imbalances and surface stability problems that arise from direct assimilation of surface shelter temperatures. The fact that the rate of change of the satellite skin temperature is used rather than the absolute temperature means that sensor calibration is not as critical. The technique has been employed on a semi-operational basis at the GHCC within the PSU/CAR MM5 since 1 November 1998. A one-way nested grid configuration was employed with a 75 kin CONUS domain and a 25 km grid over the southeastern United States. Initial conditions were obtained from the 12 UTC Early Eta Data Assimilation System analyses and lateral boundary conditions from the Early Eta forecast available at 3 hour intervals. The satellite-derived land surface temperature tendencies and insolation were assimilated between two and five hours (1400 and 1650 UTC) of the forecast. We performed the assimilation on the Southeastern domain only. In addition, a control run without assimilation was performed to provide insight into the performance of the assimilation technique.

Lapenta, William M.↗

Use of Geostationary Satellite Data to Force Land Surface Schemes within Atmospheric Mesoscale Models

A technique has been developed for assimilating GOES-derived skin temperature tendencies and insolation into the surface energy budget equation of a mesoscale model so that the simulated rate of temperature change closely agrees with the satellite observations. A critical assumption of the technique is that the availability of moisture (either from the soil or vegetation) is the least known term in the model's surface energy budget. Therefore, the simulated latent heat flux, which is a function of surface moisture availability, is adjusted based upon differences between the modeled and satellite-observed skin temperature tendencies. An advantage of this technique is that satellite temperature tendencies are assimilated in an energetically consistent manner that avoids energy imbalances and surface stability problems that arise from direct assimilation of surface shelter temperatures. The fact that the rate of change of the satellite skin temperature is used rather than the absolute temperature means that sensor calibration is not as critical. The technique has been employed on a semi-operational basis at the GHCC within the PSU/NCAR MM5. Assimilation has been performed on a grid centered over the Southeastern US since November 1998. Results from the past year show that assimilation of the satellite data reduces both the bias and RMSE for simulations of surface air temperature and relative humidity. These findings are based on comparison of assimilation runs with a control using the simple 5-layer soil model available in MM5. A significant development in the past several months was the inclusion of the detailed Oregon State University land surface model (OSU/LSM) as an option within MM5. One of our working hypotheses has been that the assimilation technique, although simple, may provide better short-term forecasts than a detailed LSM that requires significant number initialized parameters. Preliminary results indicate that the assimilation out performs the OSU/LSM as it is incorporated in MM5. Details will be presented at the symposium.

Lapenta, William M.↗

Impact of Assimilating GOES-Derived Land Surface Variables into the PSU/NCAR MM5

Land surface processes are known to have a profound impact on the overlying atmosphere over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. Many atmospheric numerical models include special parameterizations to improve the specification and partitioning of surface fluxes which are critical to the accurate prediction of warm season boundary layer behavior, organized mesoscale circulations, and convective precipitation. However, the added degrees of freedom resulting from the inclusion of vegetation and soil schemes require the specification of additional surface parameters such as vegetative resistances, green vegetation fraction, leaf area index, soil physical and hydraulic characteristics, and the vertical distribution of soil moisture. As satellite data have become more readily available in recent years, many investigations have attempted to use these new measurements to infer missing components of the surface energy budget. Sensitivity studies have shown land-skin temperature (LST) tendencies during the mid-morning hours are strongly sensitive to the surface moisture availability (a function of soil wetness and vegetation) and less sensitive to other parameters such as surface roughness. Based upon results from these and other studies, developed a simple technique that dynamically assimilates Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) derived land-surface products into the surface energy budget of a mesoscale model. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate that assimilating the GOES satellite data has the potential to improve the representation of land surface characteristics within the model without prior knowledge of the land surface characteristics. The assimilation technique is presented in Section 2 and the numerical experiments are detailed in Section 3. Preliminary results and conclusions are presented in Sections 4 and 5, respectively.

Lapenta, William M.↗

Real-Time Assimilation of Goes-Derived Products into A Mesoscale Model and It's Impact on Short-Term (06-36hr) Forecasts from 17 October 1998 through the Present

As the parameterizations of surface energy budgets in regional models have become more complete physically, models have the potential to be much more realistic in simulations of coupling between surface radiation, hydrology, and surface energy transfer. Realizing the importance of properly specifying the surface energy budget, many institutions are using land-surface models to represent the lower boundary forcing associated with biophysical processes and soil hydrology. However, the added degrees of freedom due to inclusion of such land-surface schemes require the specification of additional parameters within the model system such as vegetative resistances, green vegetation fraction, leaf area index, soil physical and hydraulic characteristics, stream flow, runoff, and the vertical distribution of soil moisture. Spatial heterogeneity of these parameters makes correct specification problematic since measurements are not routinely available. A technique has been developed for assimilating GOES-IR skin temperature tendencies, solar insolation, and surface albedo into the surface energy budget equation of a mesoscale model so that the simulated rate of temperature change closely agrees with the satellite observations. The technique has been successfully employed in a number of mesoscale models in case-study mode. We have taken the next step and developed a study to determine if assimilating these types of data into mesoscale models in real-time can improve short-term (648h) forecasts of temperature, relative humidity, and QPF on a daily basis over relatively large regions. Therefore, an operational modeling/assimilation system has been developed at the GHCC during the past summer that allows us to produce simulations out to 48 hours in a timely manor. The PSU/NCAR MM5 is used in a nested configuration with a 25 km grid covering the southeastern third of the US. The model has been on-line since 1 July 1998 and forecast products are posted on our web site. The satellite algorithms that generate data to be assimilated came on-line 17 October 1998. Quantitative assessment of the forecast quality is performed via traditional verification statistics. In addition, invaluable qualitative information is obtained through close collaboration with several NWSFO's who are using the MM5 products in real-time on a daily basis. The assimilation technique has been applied in an off-line mode since 17 October. Results based on bulk statistical verification of surface meteorology over the entire Southeastern US show that assimilating the GOES-derived land surface tendencies and solar radiation results in a significant reduction of the shelter air temperature and RH bias on a daily basis. In fact, the assimilation technique has produced improved temperature and RH forecasts for 97% of the 100 simulations performed to date. Work is currently underway to determine the sensitivity of the assimilation procedure to the availability of satellite data, length of assimilation period, model initialization, and synoptic-scale meteorological conditions. In addition, results from a detailed energy budget analysis using the Early Eta, our operational MM5, and the assimilation runs will help us to better understand the satellite assimilation the land-surface energy budge. Research during the spring-summer of 1999 will focus on the impact of the assimilation technique during the warm season where it is hypothesized that it can have a positive impact on QPF during conditions of weak synoptic-scale forcing.

Lapenta, William M.↗

Simulated Surface Energy Budgets Over the Southeastern US: The GHCC Satellite Assimilation System and the NCEP Early Eta

A technique has been developed for assimilating GOES-derived skin temperature tendencies and insolation into the surface energy budget equation of a mesoscale model so that the simulated rate of temperature change closely agrees with the satellite observations. A critical assumption of the technique is that the availability of moisture (either from the soil or vegetation) is the least known term in the model's surface energy budget. Therefore, the simulated latent heat flux, which is a function of surface moisture availability, is adjusted based upon differences between the modeled and satellite-observed skin temperature tendencies. An advantage of this technique is that satellite temperature tendencies are assimilated in an energetically consistent manner that avoids energy imbalances and surface stability problems that arise from direct assimilation of surface shelter temperatures. The fact that the rate of change of the satellite skin temperature is used rather than the absolute temperature means that sensor calibration is not as critical. An advantage of this technique for short-range forecasts (0-48h) is that it does not require a complex land-surface formulation within the atmospheric model. As a result, we can avoid having to specify land surface characteristics such as vegetation resistances, green fraction, leaf area index, soil physical and hydraulic characteristics, stream flow, runoff, and the vertical and horizontal distribution of soil moisture.

Lapenta, William M.↗

Assimilation of Goes-Derived Skin Temperature Tendencies into Mesoscale Models to Improve Forecasts of near Surface Air Temperature and Mixing Ratio

A technique has been developed for assimilating GOES-FR skin temperature tendencies into the surface energy budget equation of a mesoscale model so that the simulated rate of temperature chance closely agrees with the satellite observations. A critical assumption of the technique is that the availability of moisture (either from the soil or vegetation) is the least known term in the model's surface energy budget. Therefore, the simulated latent heat flux, which is a function of surface moisture availability, is adjusted based upon differences between the modeled and satellite-observed skin temperature tendencies. An advantage of this technique is that satellite temperature tendencies are assimilated in an energetically consistent manner that avoids energy imbalances and surface stability problems that arise from direct assimilation of surface shelter temperatures. The fact that the rate of change of the satellite skin temperature is used rather than the absolute temperature means that sensor calibration is not as critical. An advantage of this technique for short-range forecasts (0-48 h) is that it does not require a complex land-surface formulation within the atmospheric model. As a result, the need to specify poorly known soil and vegetative characteristics is eliminated. The GOES assimilation technique has been incorporated into the PSU/NCAR MM5. Results will be presented to demonstrate the ability of the assimilation scheme to improve short- term (0-48h) simulations of near-surface air temperature and mixing ratio during the warm season for several selected cases which exhibit a variety of atmospheric and land-surface conditions. In addition, validation of terms in the simulated surface energy budget will be presented using in situ data collected at the Southern Great Plains (SGP) Cloud And Radiation Testbed (CART) site as part of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurements Program (ARM).

Lapenta, William M.↗

A Technique for Assimilating GOES-Derived Land Surface Products into Regional Models to Improve the Representation of Land Surface Forcing

As the parameterizations of surface energy budgets in regional models have become more complete physically, models have the potential to be much more realistic in simulations of coupling between surface radiation, hydrology, and surface energy transfer. Realizing the importance of properly specifying the surface energy budget, many institutions are using land-surface models to represent the lower boundary forcing associated with biophysical processes and soil hydrology. However, the added degrees of freedom due to inclusion of such land-surface schemes require the specification of additional parameters within the model system such as vegetative resistances, green vegetation fraction, leaf area index, soil physical and hydraulic characteristics, stream flow, runoff, and the vertical distribution of soil moisture. A technique has been developed for assimilating GOES-IR skin temperature tendencies into the surface energy budget equation of a mesoscale model so that the simulated rate of temperature change closely agrees with the satellite observations. A critical assumption of the technique is that the availability of moisture (either from the soil or vegetation) is the least known term in the model's surface energy budget. Therefore, the simulated latent heat flux, which is a function of surface moisture availability, is adjusted based upon differences between the modeled and satellite-observed skin temperature tendencies. An advantage of this technique is that satellite temperature tendencies are assimilated in an energetically consistent manner that avoids energy imbalances and surface stability problems that arise from direct assimilation of surface shelter temperatures. The fact that the rate of change of the satellite skin temperature is used rather than the absolute temperature means that sensor calibration is not as critical. An advantage of this technique for short-range forecasts is that it does not require a complex land-surface formulation within the atmospheric model. As a result, the need to specify poorly known soil and vegetative characteristics is eliminated. The GOES assimilation technique has been incorporated into the PSU/NCAR MM5. Results will be presented to demonstrate the ability of the assimilation scheme to improve short-term simulations of near-surface air temperature and mixing ratio during the warm season for several selected cases during June of 1995 and June 1997 which exhibit a variety of atmospheric and land-surface conditions. In addition, the simulations produced by the assimilation technique will be compared with those produced by the MM5/BATS coupled model initialized with soil water content derived from a soil hydrology model.

Lapenta, William M.↗

The State of Scientific Visualization with Regard to the NASA EOS Mission to Planet Earth

In support of the mission to better understand the dynamics of the global atmosphere, John R. Christy and Nathaniel D. Reynolds investigated a wide range of topics. Christy worked closely with NASA scientist Roy Spencer to develop a data set of precision temperature measurements using the NASA built Microwave Sounding Unit. The data from this effort has received international recognition as they provide a source of precise information for the most difficult of environmental issues in the global climate change arena. In addition, Christy coordinated modeling research with NASA scientist Franklin Robertson with research focusing on the validation of global model output using various satellite data with sophisticated statistical techniques. Reynolds worked with NASA scientist Timothy Miller on idealized flows in a rotating annulus and the application of the results to the general circulation of the atmosphere. Additional work was carried out in investigation of stratospheric ozone fluctuations due to dynamical causes.

Christy, John R.↗

Reducing Noise in the MSU Daily Lower-Tropospheric Global Temperature Dataset

The daily global-mean values of the lower-tropospheric temperature determined from microwave emissions measured by satellites are examined in terms of their signal, noise, and signal-to-noise ratio. Daily and 30-day average noise estimates are reduced by almost 50% and 35%. respectively, by analyzing and adjusting (if necessary) for errors due to 1) missing data, 2) residual harmonics of the annual cycle unique to particular satellites, 3) lack of filtering, and 4) spurious trends. After adjustments, the decadal trend of the lower-tropospheric global temperature from January 1979 through February 1994 becomes -0.058 C. or about 0.03 C per decade cooler than previously calculated.

Christy, John R.↗