Engineering topics

Medlyn, Belinda

Publications and source records attributed to Medlyn, Belinda.

8 records

DOE OSTI2021

AI-Constrained Bottom-Up Ecohydrology and Improved Prediction of Seasonal, Interannual, and Decadal Flood and Drought Risks

Focal Areas: (2) Predictive modeling through the use of AI techniques and AI-derived model components; the use of AI and other tools to design a prediction system composed of a hierarchy of models (3)Insight gleaned from complex data (both observed & simulated) using AI, big data analytics, and other advanced methods, including explainable AI and physics- or knowledge-guided AI

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

Amazon forest response to CO 2 fertilization dependent on plant phosphorus acquisition

Global terrestrial models currently predict that the Amazon rainforest will continue to act as a carbon sink in the future, primarily owing to the rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentration. Soil phosphorus impoverishment in parts of the Amazon basin largely controls its functioning, but the role of phosphorus availability has not been considered in global model ensembles—for example, during the Fifth Climate Model Intercomparison Project. Here we simulate the planned free-air CO 2 enrichment experiment AmazonFACE with an ensemble of 14 terrestrial ecosystem models. We show that phosphorus availability reduces the projected CO 2 -induced biomass carbon growth by about 50% to 79 ± 63 g C m -2 yr -1 over 15 years compared to estimates from carbon and carbon–nitrogen models. Our results suggest that the resilience of the region to climate change may be much less than previously assumed. Variation in the biomass carbon response among the phosphorus-enabled models is considerable, ranging from 5 to 140 g C m -2 yr -1 , owing to the contrasting plant phosphorus use and acquisition strategies considered among the models. The Amazon forest response thus depends on the interactions and relative contributions of the phosphorus acquisition and use strategies across individuals, and to what extent these processes can be upregulated under elevated CO 2 .

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

FACE-MDS Phase 2: Data from Six US-Located Elevated CO2 Experiments

This dataset contains measured ecosystem data from four Free Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) experiments–Duke, Oak Ridge (ORNL), and Rhinelander -- and one Open Top Chamber (OTC) experiment -- Kennedy Space Center (KSCO). The sites were located in the United States and contain data from 1996-2009. These sites were the study sites of the FACE Model Data Synthesis (FACE-MDS) project phase 2. The file naming convention can be found in the file 'facemds-file-table-sitedata.xml' and information about variable naming convention can be found in the file 'facemds-standard-name-table-modvars.xml'. We followed the ALMA v3 convention for meteorological variables and developed a hierarchical naming scheme for ecosystem variables. Additional info can be found in the protocols in the accompanying meteorological dataset (Walker et al. 2018: doi:10.15485/1480328). We replaced the original naming convention mentioned in the protocol with the one described in 'facemds-standard-name-table-modvars.xml'. The outputs of the FACE-MDS phase 2 are in Walker et al (2018: doi:10.15485/1480327). The dataset contains 18 data files that are available in comma-separate (*.csv), and 18 R Data Serialization (*.rds) format. 2 XML (*.xml) companion files and additional metadata are provided: 2 data dictionaries and a file-level metadata file in comma-separate (.csv) format and a user guide in PDF (*.pdf) format. This dataset was updated on 2019-06-28 to fix daily files at Duke and ORNL were incorrectly labelled and were standard error files instead of plot level data. Now corrected and all three (plot, mean, standard error) daily data files for both sites have been added. This dataset was updated on 2026-06-08 to add a user guide, data dictionary file, and a file-level metadata file. DUKE_ax_v2.csv was added to match the no data value format of other files in this dataset. DUKE_ax.csv is maintained as a data file. No previously released data values were changed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

FACE-MDS Phase 2: Model Output

Model output from Phase 2 of the Free Air CO2 Enrichment Model Data Synthesis (FACE-MDS) project. Results from 12 models simulating six elevated CO2 experiments using the protocols, met data, and other data supplied in the accompanying dataset: Phase 2 Free Air CO2 Enrichment Model-Data Synthesis: Meteorological Data and Protocols. File naming convention can be found in the file 'facemds-file-table-modeldata.xml' and information about variable naming convention can be found in the file 'facemds-standard-name-table-modvars.xml'. We followed the ALMA v3 convention for meteorological variables and developed a hierarchical naming scheme for ecosystem variables. Additional info can be found in the protocols in the accompanying meteorological dataset (doi:10.15485/1480328). We replaced the original naming convention mentioned in the protocol with the one described in 'facemds-standard-name-table-modvars.xml'.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

FACE-MDS Phase 2: Meteorological Data and Protocols

This dataset contains meteorological data, site parameterization data, and protocols for simulation of the five Free Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) experiments and one Open Top Chamber (OTC) experiment that were the study sites of the FACE Model Data Synthesis (FACE-MDS) project. This dataset should contain everything necessary to simulate these six CO2 enrichment experiments -- Duke, Kennedy Space Center, NDFF, ORNL, PHACE, and Rhinelander -- following the FACE-MDS simulation protocol. Data cover 1998-2008 (1998-01-01 to 2008-12-31). File naming convention can be found in the file 'facemds-file-table-metdata.xml' and information about variable naming convention can be found in the file 'facemds-standard-name-table-metvars.xml'. Where possible, Assistance for the Land-surface Modelling Activities (ALMA) v3 convention for meteorological variables naming ontology was followed. Additional info can be found in the user guide, protocol documents, and readmes in this dataset. The original naming convention mentioned in the protocol was replaced with the one described in 'facemds-standard-name-table-modvars.xml' in the accompanying dataset (doi:10.15485/1480327). The dataset contains 21 data files that are available in comma-separate (*.csv), plain text (*.txt), and NetCDF (*.nc) format. Nine companion files and additional metadata are provided: three data dictionaries and a file-level metadata file in comma separate (.csv) format and a user guide in PDF (*.pdf) format. This dataset was updated on 2026-06-02 to add a version of the data files in comma separate (.csv) format, a user guide, data dictionary files, and a file-level metadata file. No previously released data values were changed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

Transient dynamics of terrestrial carbon storage: Mathematical foundation and its applications

Terrestrial ecosystems have absorbed roughly 30% of anthropogenic CO 2 emissions over the past decades, but it is unclear whether this carbon (C) sink will endure into the future. Despite extensive modeling and experimental and observational studies, what fundamentally determines transient dynamics of terrestrial C storage under global change is still not very clear. Here we develop a new framework for understanding transient dynamics of terrestrial C storage through mathematical analysis and numerical experiments. Our analysis indicates that the ultimate force driving ecosystem C storage change is the C storage capacity, which is jointly determined by ecosystem C input (e.g., net primary production, NPP) and residence time. Since both C input and residence time vary with time, the C storage capacity is time-dependent and acts as a moving attractor that actual C storage chases. The rate of change in C storage is proportional to the C storage potential, which is the difference between the current storage and the storage capacity. The C storage capacity represents instantaneous responses of the land C cycle to external forcing, whereas the C storage potential represents the internal capability of the land C cycle to influence the C change trajectory in the next time step. The influence happens through redistribution of net C pool changes in a network of pools with different residence times. Moreover, this and our other studies have demonstrated that one matrix equation can replicate simulations of most land C cycle models (i.e., physical emulators). As a result, simulation outputs of those models can be placed into a three-dimensional (3-D) parameter space to measure their differences. The latter can be decomposed into traceable components to track the origins of model uncertainty. In addition, the physical emulators make data assimilation computationally feasible so that both C flux- and pool-related datasets can be used to better constrain model predictions of land C sequestration. Altogether, this new mathematical framework offers new approaches to understanding, evaluating, diagnosing, and improving land C cycle models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

Transient dynamics of terrestrial carbon storage: Mathematical foundation and numeric examples

Terrestrial ecosystems absorb roughly 30% of anthropogenic CO 2 emissions since preindustrial era, but it is unclear whether this carbon (C) sink will endure into the future. Despite extensive modeling, experimental, and observational studies, what fundamentally determines transient dynamics of terrestrial C storage under climate change is still not very clear. Here we develop a new framework for understanding transient dynamics of terrestrial C storage through mathematical analysis and numerical experiments. Our analysis indicates that the ultimate force driving ecosystem C storage change is the C storage capacity, which is jointly determined by ecosystem C input (e.g., net primary production, NPP) and residence time. Since both C input and residence time vary with time, the C storage capacity is time-dependent and acts as a moving attractor that actual C storage chases. The rate of change in C storage is proportional to the C storage potential, the difference between the current storage and the storage capacity. The C storage capacity represents instantaneous responses of the land C cycle to external forcing, whereas the C storage potential represents the internal capability of the land C cycle to influence the C change trajectory in the next time step. The influence happens through redistribution of net C pool changes in a network of pools with different residence times. Furthermore, this and our other studies have demonstrated that one matrix equation can exactly replicate simulations of most land C cycle models (i.e., physical emulators). As a result, simulation outputs of those models can be placed into a three-dimensional (3D) parameter space to measure their differences. The latter can be decomposed into traceable components to track the origins of model uncertainty. Moreover, the emulators make data assimilation computationally feasible so that both C flux- and pool-related datasets can be used to better constrain model predictions of land C sequestration. We also propose that the C storage potential be the targeted variable for research, market trading, and government negotiation for C credits.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2015

Using Ecosystem Experiments to Improve Vegetation Models

Ecosystem responses to rising CO2 concentrations are a major source of uncertainty in climate change projections. Data from ecosystem-scale Free-Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) experiments provide a unique opportunity to reduce this uncertainty. The recent FACE Model–Data Synthesis project aimed to use the information gathered in two forest FACE experiments to assess and improve land ecosystem models. A new 'assumption-centred' model intercomparison approach was used, in which participating models were evaluated against experimental data based on the ways in which they represent key ecological processes. Identifying and evaluating the main assumptions caused differences among models, and the assumption-centered approach produced a clear roadmap for reducing model uncertainty. We explain this approach and summarize the resulting research agenda. We encourage the application of this approach in other model intercomparison projects to fundamentally improve predictive understanding of the Earth system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗