Engineering topics

Mengel, John G.

Publications and source records attributed to Mengel, John G..

11 records

NASA NTRS2007

Inter-annual and Long-term Temperature Variations in the Mesopause Region at High Latitudes Generated by the Stratospheric QBO

The Numerical Spectral Model (NSM) simulates the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) that dominates the zonal circulation of the lower stratosphere at low latitudes. In the model, the QBO is generated with parameterized small-scale gravity waves (GW), which are partially augmented in 3D with planetary waves owing to baroclinic instability. Due to GW filtering, the QBO extends into the upper mesosphere, evident in UARS zonal wind and TIMED temperature measurements. While the QBO zonal winds are confined to equatorial latitudes, even in simulations with latitude-independent wave source, the associated temperature variations extend to high latitudes. The meridional circulation redistributes some of the QBO energy to focus it partially onto the Polar Regions. The resulting QBO temperature variations away from the equator tend to increase at higher altitudes to produce inter-annual variations that can exceed 5 K in the polar mesopause region -- and our 3D model simulations show that the effect is variable from year to year and can produce large differences between the two hemispheres, presumably due to interactions involving the seasonal variations. Modeling studies with the NSM have shown that long-term variations can also be generated by the QBO interacting with the seasonal cycles through OW node-filtering. A 30-month QBO, optimally synchronized by the 6-month Semi-Annual Oscillation (SAO), thus produces a 5-year or semi-decadal (SD) oscillation -- and observational evidence for that has been provided by a recent analysis of stratospheric NCEP data. In a simulation with the 2D version of the NSM, this SD oscillation extends into the upper mesosphere, and we present results to show that the related temperature variations could contribute significantly to the long-term variations of the polar mesopause region. Quasi-decadal variations could furthermore arise from the modeled solar cycle modulations of the QBO and 12-month annual oscillation. Our numerical results are discussed in the context of the observed low summer temperatures reproduced by the model, to demonstrate that the above interannual and long-term variations could contribute significantly to the climatology of Polar Mesospheric Clouds (PMC) investigated by the Aeronomy of Ice in the Mesosphere (AIM) mission.

Mayr, Hans G.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Modeling the Observed Solar Cycle Variations of the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO): Amplification by Wave Forcing

In several papers, the solar cycle (SC) effect in the lower atmosphere has been linked observationally to the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) of the zonal circulation, which is generated primarily by small-scale gravity waves (GW). Salby and Callaghan (2000) in particular analyzed the QBO, covering more than 40 years, and discovered that it contains a large SC signature at 20 km. With our Numerical Spectral Model (NSM), we conducted a 3D study to describe the QBO under the influence of the SC, and some results have been published (Mayr et al., GRL, 2005,2006). For a SC period of 10 years, the relative amplitude of radiative forcing is taken to vary exponentially with height, i.e., 0.2% at the surface, 2% at 50 km, 20% at 100 km and above. Applying spectral analysis to filter out and identify the SC signature, the model generates a relatively large modulation of the QBO, which reproduces the observations qualitatively. Our numerical results demonstrate that the modulation of the QBO, with constant phase relative to the SC, persist at least for 60 years. The same model run generates in the seasonal variations a hemispherically symmetric Equatorial Annual Oscillation (EAO, with 12-month period), which is confined to low latitudes like the QBO and is also modulated by the SC. Although the amplitude of the EAO is relatively small, its SC modulation is large, and it is in phase with that of the QBO. The SC modulated EAO is evidently the pathway and pacemaker for the solar influence on the QBO. To shed light on the dynamical processes involved, we present model results that show how the seasonal cycle induces the SC modulations of the EAO and QBO. Our analysis further demonstrates that the SC modulations of the QBO and EAO are amplified by the GW interaction with the flow. The GW momentum source clearly shows a SC modulation that is in phase with the corresponding modulations of the QBO and EAO. By tapping the momentum from the upward propagating GWs, the QBO and EAO apparently serve as conduits to amplify and transfer to lower altitudes the larger SC variations in the UV absorbed in the mesosphere. Our model also produces in the temperature variations of the QBO and EAO measurable SC modulations at polar latitudes near the tropopause, and such signatures have been reported in the literature. Contrary to conventional interpretation, however, we suggest that the effects are generated at least in part by the meridional circulation, and planetary waves presumably, which redistribute the energy from the equatorial region where wave forcing is very efficient and thereby amplifies the SC influence.

Mayr, Hans G.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Modeling the Observed QBO and Inter-Annual Variations of the Diurnal Tide in the Mesosphere

In the current version of the Numerical Spectral Model (NSM), the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) is generated primarily by small-scale gravity waves (GW) from Hines' Doppler Spread Parameterization (DSP). The model does not have topography, and the planetary waves are solely generated by instabilities. We discuss a 3D modeling study that describes the QBO extending from the stratosphere into the upper mesosphere, where the oscillation produces significant inter-annual variations in the diurnal tide. The numerical results are compared with temperature measurements from the SABER (TIMED) and MLS (UARS) instruments obtained by Huang et al. (2006). With a GW source that peaks at the Equator and is taken to be isotropic and independent of season, the NSM generates a QBO with variable periods around 26 months and zonal wind amplitudes of almost 25 m/s at 30 km. As reported earlier, the NSM reproduces the observed equinoctial maxima in the diurnal tide at altitudes around 95 km. The modeled QBO modulates the tide such that the seasonal amplitude maxima can vary from one year to another by as much as 30%. To shed light on the underlying mechanisms, the relative importance of the advection terms are discussed, and they are shown to be important in the stratosphere. At altitudes above 80 km, however, the QBO-related inter-annual variations of the tide are generated primarily by GW momentum deposition. In qualitative agreement with the SABER measurements, the model generates distinct zonal-mean QBO temperature variations in the stratosphere and mesosphere. In the stratosphere, the computed amplitudes are not much smaller than those observed, and the rate of downward propagation at the Equator is reproduced. The modeled temperature amplitudes in the mesosphere, however, are much smaller than those observed. The observed and computed temperature variations of the QBO peak at the Equator but extend with phase reversals to high latitudes, in contrast to the zonal winds that are confined to equatorial latitudes. Hemispherical asymmetries also appear in both the model results and the observations. The temperature amplitudes outside the equatorial region however tend to occur at lower latitudes in the model results. While there is qualitative agreement between the TIMED measurements and the model prediction, there are some areas of significant disagreement that require us to reexamine the present version of the NSM. The numerical results critically depend on the chosen parameters that determine the wave forcing, and there are a number of avenues to improve the performance of the model that had not been tuned to fit the observations. The GW spectrum and its latitude dependence in the troposphere are not well known, and numerical experiments are discussed that describe the related model response. While it appears that eastward propagating Kelvin waves and westward propagating Rossby gravity waves are not the primary source to generate the QBO, the GW forcing can seed the oscillation and act as a catalyst to enhance effectiveness of these planetary waves.

Mayr, Hans G.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Wave-driven Equatorial Annual Oscillation Induced and Modulated by the Solar Cycle

Our model for the solar cycle (SC) modulation of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) produces a hemispherically symmetric 12-month Annual Oscillation (AO) in the zonal winds, which is confined to low latitudes. This Equatorial Annual Oscillation (EAO) is produced by interaction between the anti-symmetric component of SC forcing and the dominant anti-symmetric AO. The EA0 is amplified by the upward propagating small- scale gravity waves (GW), and the oscillation propagates down through the stratosphere like the QBO. The amplitude of the EA0 is relatively small, but its SC modulation contributes significantly to extend the effect to lower altitudes. Although the energy of the EA0 is concentrated at low latitudes, prominent signatures appear in the Polar Regions where the SC produces measurable temperature variations. At lower altitudes, the SC effects are significantly different in the two hemispheres because of the EAO, and due to its GW driven downward propagation the phase of the annual cycle is delayed.

Mayr, Hans G.↗

NASA NTRS2005

The QBO as Potential Amplifier and Conduit to Lower Altitudes of Solar Cycle Influence

In several papers, the solar cycle (SC) effect in the lower atmosphere has been linked to the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO), which is generated primarily by small-scale gravity waves. Salby and Callaghan (2000) analyzed the observed zonal winds of the QBO over more than 40 years and found that it contains a relatively large SC signature at 20 km. Following up on an earlier 2D study with our global-scale Numerical Spectral Model (NSM), we discuss here a 3D study with the QBO under the influence of the SC. For a SC period of 10 years, the amplitude of the relative variations of radiative forcing is taken to vary for simplicity from 0.2% at the surface to 2% at 50 km to 20% at 100 km and above. Covering a limited time span of 40 years, this model produces in the lower stratosphere a relatively large modulation of the QBO, which appears to be related to the SC and is in qualitative agreement with the observations. Some of the energy in the QBO, confined to low latitudes primarily, is redistributed globally by the meridional circulation and planetary waves presumably, so that a measurable SC modulation is generated in the tropospheric temperatures of the polar regions. Further studies are needed, (1) to determine whether the effect is real and prevails in more extensive simulations and whether the results are robust when shorter integration steps are employed, and (2) to explore the mechanism(s) that may ample the apparent SC influence of the UV radiation extending into the lower atmosphere. Quasi-decadal oscillations, generated internally by the QBO interacting with the seasonal cycles, may interfere with or aid the SC effect.

Mayr, Hans G.↗

NASA NTRS2005

The QBO as Potential Amplifier and Conduit to Lower Altitudes of Solar Cycle Influence

The solar cycle (SC) effect in the lower atmosphere has been linked observationally to the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO), which is generated primarily by small-scale gravity waves. Salby and Callaghan analyzed the QBO observations covering more than 40 years and found that it contains a relatively large SC signature at 20 km. Following up on a 2D study with our Numerical Spectral Model (NSM), we discuss here a 3D study in which we simulated the QBO under the influence of the SC. For a SC period of 10 years, the amplitude of the relative variations of radiative forcing is taken to vary from 0.2% at the surface to 2% at 50 km to 20% at 100 km and above. This model produces in the lower stratosphere a relatively large modulation of the QBO, which appears to be related to the SC and is in qualitative agreement with the observations. Further studies are needed, (1) to determine whether the effect is real and the results are robust and (2) to explore the mechanism(s) that may amplify the SC effect. Quasi-decadal oscillations, generated internally by the QBO interacting with the seasonal cycles, may interfere with or aid the SC effect.

Mayr, Hans G.↗

NASA NTRS2005

The QBO as Potential Amplifier and Conduit to Lower Altitudes of Solar Cycle Influence?

The solar cycle (SC) effect in the lower atmosphere has been linked observationally to the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO), which is generated primarily by small-scale gravity waves (GW). Following up on a 2D study with our Numerical Spectral Model (NSM), we discuss here a 3D study in which we simulated the QBO under the influence of the SC. For a SC period of 10 years, the relative amplitude of radiative forcing is taken to vary exponentially with height, i.e., 0.2% at the surface, 2% at 50 km, 20% at 100 km and above. Applying spectral analysis to filter out and identify the SC signature, this model produces a relatively large modulation in the QBO of the lower stratospheric circulation, which is in qualitative agreement with the results obtained by Salby and Callaghan (2000) who analyzed zonal wind observations covering more than 40 years. The modeled SC modulation of the QBO extends to high latitudes where it produces temperature variations of about 1 K in the troposphere below 10 km. We report that the SC also generates in the model a hemispherically symmetric Equatorial Annual Oscillation (EAO, with 12-month period) that is largely confined to low latitudes. Under the influence of the GWs, the SC modulated EA0 propagates down into the lower stratosphere like the QBO. As is the case for the QBO, the energy of this EA0 is partially redistributed by the meridional circulation and planetary waves, presumably, to generate measurable SC signatures in the tropospheric temperature of the polar regions, which may be related to the so called Arctic Oscillation (Thompson and Wallace, 1998). The larger SC influence at higher altitudes is apparently transferred to the lower and denser regions of the atmosphere by tapping the momentum from the upward propagating GWs that drive the oscillations. The SC modulation of the QBO period could prove to be very effective in this process, as our earlier 2D study indicated. Further studies are needed, (1) to make sure that the SC effects are real and the numerical results are robust, and (2) to explore more fully the mechanism(s) that may conspire to amplify the SC effect. Quasi-decadal oscillations, generated internally by the QBO interacting with the seasonal cycles, may interfere with, or aid, the SC influence.

Mayr, Hans G.↗

NASA NTRS2004

QBO Generated Inter-annual Variations of the Diurnal Tide in the Mesosphere

We report results from a study with the Numerical Spectral Model (NSM), which produces in the mesosphere significant inter-annual variations in the diurnal tide. Applying Hines Doppler Spread Parameterization (DPS), small-scale gravity waves (GW) drive the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) and Semi-annual Oscillation (SAO). With a GW source that peaks at the equator and is taken to be isotropic and independent of season, the NSM generates near the equator a QBO with variable periods around 27 months and zonal wind amplitudes close to 20 m / s at 30 Ism. As reported earlier, the NSM reproduces the observed equinoctial maxima in the diurnal tide at altitudes around 95 km. In the present paper it is shown that the QBO modulates the tide such that the seasonal amplitude maxima can vary from one year to another by as much as 30%. Since the period of the QBO is variable, its phase relative to the seasonal cycle changes. The magnitude of the QBO modulation of the tide thus varies considerably as our long-term model simulation shows. To shed light on the underlying mechanism, the relative importance of the linearized advection terms are discussed that involve the meridional and vertical winds of the diurnal tide.

Mayr, Hans G.↗

NASA NTRS2004

QBO Generated Inter-annual Variations of the Diurnal Tide in the Mesosphere

We report results from a study with the Numerical Spectral Model (NSM), which produces in the d i d tide significant inter-annual variations. Applying Hines' Doppler Spread Parameterization (DPS), small-scale gravity waves (GW) drive the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) and Semi-annual Oscillation (SAO). With a GW source that peaks at the equator and is taken to be isotropic and independent of season, the NSM generates a QBO with variable periods around 27 months and zonal wind amplitudes close to 20 m/s at 30 lan, As reported earlier, the NSM reproduces the observed equinoctial maxima in the diurnal tide at altitudes around 95 km. In the present paper it is shown that the QBO modulates the tide such that the seasonal amplitude maxima can vary from one year to another by as much as 30%. Since the period of the QBO is variable, its phase relative to the seasonal cycle changes. The magnitude of the QBO modulation of the tide thus varies considerably as our long-term model simulation shows. To shed light on the underlying mechanisms, we discuss (a) the relative importance of the linearized advection terms that involve the meridional and vertical winds of the diurnal tide and (b) the effects momentum deposition from GWs filtered by the QBO.

Mayr, Hans G.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Modeling 100,000-year climate fluctuations in pre-Pleistocene time series

A number of pre-Pleistocene climate records exhibit significant fluctuations at the 100,000-year (100-ky) eccentricity period, before the time of such fluctuations in global ice volume. The origin of these fluctuations has been obscure. Results reported here from a modeling study suggest that such a response can occur over low-altitude land areas involved in monsoon fluctuations. The twice yearly passage of the sun across the equator and the seasonal timing of perihelion interact to increase both 100-ky and 400-ky power in the modeled temperature field. The magnitude of the temperature response is sufficiently large to leave an imprint on the geologic record, and simulated fluctuations resemble those found in records of Triassic lake levels.

Crowley, Thomas J.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Gondwanaland's seasonal cycle

A two-dimensional energy balance climate model has been used to simulate the seasonal temperature cycle on a supercontinent-sized land mass. Experiments with idealized and realistic geography indicate that the land-sea configuration in high latitudes exerts a strong influence on the magnitude of summer warming. These simulations provide significant insight into the evolution of climate during the Palaeozoic, and raise questions about the presumed pre-eminent role of carbon dioxide in explaining long-term climate change.

Crowley, Thomas J.↗