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Menon, Surabi

Publications and source records attributed to Menon, Surabi.

Evaluation of Aerosol-cloud Interaction in the GISS Model E Using ARM Observations

Observations from the US Department of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program are used to evaluate the ability of the NASA GISS ModelE global climate model in reproducing observed interactions between aerosols and clouds. Included in the evaluation are comparisons of basic meteorology and aerosol properties, droplet activation, effective radius parameterizations, and surface-based evaluations of aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI). Differences between the simulated and observed ACI are generally large, but these differences may result partially from vertical distribution of aerosol in the model, rather than the representation of physical processes governing the interactions between aerosols and clouds. Compared to the current observations, the ModelE often features elevated droplet concentrations for a given aerosol concentration, indicating that the activation parameterizations used may be too aggressive. Additionally, parameterizations for effective radius commonly used in models were tested using ARM observations, and there was no clear superior parameterization for the cases reviewed here. This lack of consensus is demonstrated to result in potentially large, statistically significant differences to surface radiative budgets, should one parameterization be chosen over another.

Clouds↗

Aerosol Direct, Indirect, Semidirect, and Surface Albedo Effects from Sector Contributions Based on the IPCC AR5 Emissions for Preindustrial and Present-day Conditions

The anthropogenic increase in aerosol concentrations since preindustrial times and its net cooling effect on the atmosphere is thought to mask some of the greenhouse gas-induced warming. Although the overall effect of aerosols on solar radiation and clouds is most certainly negative, some individual forcing agents and feedbacks have positive forcing effects. Recent studies have tried to identify some of those positive forcing agents and their individual emission sectors, with the hope that mitigation policies could be developed to target those emitters. Understanding the net effect of multisource emitting sectors and the involved cloud feedbacks is very challenging, and this paper will clarify forcing and feedback effects by separating direct, indirect, semidirect and surface albedo effects due to aerosols. To this end, we apply the Goddard Institute for Space Studies climate model including detailed aerosol microphysics to examine aerosol impacts on climate by isolating single emission sector contributions as given by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) emission data sets developed for Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR5. For the modeled past 150 years, using the climate model and emissions from preindustrial times to present-day, the total global annual mean aerosol radiative forcing is -0.6 W/m(exp 2), with the largest contribution from the direct effect (-0.5 W/m(exp 2)). Aerosol-induced changes on cloud cover often depends on cloud type and geographical region. The indirect (includes only the cloud albedo effect with -0.17 W/m(exp 2)) and semidirect effects (-0.10 W/m(exp 2)) can be isolated on a regional scale, and they often have opposing forcing effects, leading to overall small forcing effects on a global scale. Although the surface albedo effects from aerosols are small (0.016 W/m(exp 2)), triggered feedbacks on top of the atmosphere (TOA) radiative forcing can be 10 times larger. Our results point out that each emission sector has varying impacts by geographical region. For example, the single sector most responsible for a net positive radiative forcing is the transportation sector in the United States, agricultural burning and transportation in Europe, and the domestic emission sector in Asia. These sectors are attractive mitigation targets.

Bauer, Susanne E.↗

Coupled Aerosol-Chemistry-Climate Twentieth-Century Transient Model Investigation: Trends in Short-Lived Species and Climate Responses

The authors simulate transient twentieth-century climate in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM, with aerosol and ozone chemistry fully coupled to one another and to climate including a full dynamic ocean. Aerosols include sulfate, black carbon (BC), organic carbon, nitrate, sea salt, and dust. Direct and BC snow-albedo radiative effects are included. Model BC and sulfur trends agree fairly well with records from Greenland and European ice cores and with sulfur deposition in North America; however, the model underestimates the sulfur decline at the end of the century in Greenland. Global BC effects peak early in the century (1940s); afterward the BC effects decrease at high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere but continue to increase at lower latitudes. The largest increase in aerosol optical depth occurs in the middle of the century (1940s-80s) when sulfate forcing peaks and causes global dimming. After this, aerosols decrease in eastern North America and northern Eurasia leading to regional positive forcing changes and brightening. These surface forcing changes have the correct trend but are too weak. Over the century, the net aerosol direct effect is -0.41 Watts per square meter, the BC-albedo effect is -0.02 Watts per square meter, and the net ozone forcing is +0.24 Watts per square meter. The model polar stratospheric ozone depletion develops, beginning in the 1970s. Concurrently, the sea salt load and negative radiative flux increase over the oceans around Antarctica. Net warming over the century is modeled fairly well; however, the model fails to capture the dynamics of the observedmidcentury cooling followed by the late century warming.Over the century, 20% of Arctic warming and snow ice cover loss is attributed to the BC albedo effect. However, the decrease in this effect at the end of the century contributes to Arctic cooling. To test the climate responses to sulfate and BC pollution, two experiments were branched from 1970 that removed all pollution sulfate or BC. Averaged over 1970-2000, the respective radiative forcings relative to the full experiment were +0.3 and -0.3 Watts per square meter; the average surface air temperature changes were +0.2 degrees and -0.03 C. The small impact of BC reduction on surface temperature resulted from reduced stability and loss of low-level clouds.

Koch, Dorothy↗

Radiative Forcing and Temperature Response to Changes in Urban Albedos and Associated CO2 Offsets

The two main forcings that can counteract to some extent the positive forcings from greenhouse gases from pre-industrial times to present-day are the aerosol and related aerosol-cloud forcings, and the radiative response to changes in surface albedo. Here, we quantify the change in radiative forcing and surface temperature that may be obtained by increasing the albedos of roofs and pavements in urban areas in temperate and tropical regions of the globe. Using the catchment land surface model (the land model coupled to the GEOS-5 Atmospheric General Circulation Model), we quantify the response of the total outgoing (outgoing shortwave+longwave) radiation to urban albedo changes. Globally, the total outgoing radiation increased by 0.5 W/square m and temperature decreased by -0.008 K for an average 0.003 increase in albedo. For the U.S. the total outgoing total radiation increased by 2.3 W/square meter, and temperature decreased by approximately 0.03 K for an average 0.01 increase in albedo. These values are for the boreal summer (Tune-July-August). Based on these forcings, the expected emitted CO2 offset for a plausible 0.25 and 0.15 increase in albedos of roofs and pavements, respectively, for all global urban areas, was found to be approximately 57 Gt CO2 . A more meaningful evaluation of the impacts of urban albedo increases on climate and the expected CO2 offsets would require simulations which better characterizes urban surfaces and represents the full annual cycle.

Menon, Surabi↗

Factors Controlling the Properties of Multi-Phase Arctic Stratocumulus Clouds

The 2004 Multi-Phase Arctic Cloud Experiment (M-PACE) IOP at the ARM NSA site focused on measuring the properties of autumn transition-season arctic stratus and the environmental conditions controlling them, including concentrations of heterogeneous ice nuclei. Our work aims to use a large-eddy simulation (LES) code with embedded size-resolved aerosol and cloud microphysics to identify factors controlling multi-phase arctic stratus. Our preliminary simulations of autumn transition-season clouds observed during the 1994 Beaufort and Arctic Seas Experiment (BASE) indicated that low concentrations of ice nuclei, which were not measured, may have significantly lowered liquid water content and thereby stabilized cloud evolution. However, cloud drop concentrations appeared to be virtually immune to changes in liquid water content, indicating an active Bergeron process with little effect of collection on drop number concentration. We will compare these results with preliminary simulations from October 8-13 during MPACE. The sensitivity of cloud properties to uncertainty in other factors, such as large-scale forcings and aerosol profiles, will also be investigated. Based on the LES simulations with M-PACE data, preliminary results from the NASA GlSS single-column model (SCM) will be used to examine the sensitivity of predicted cloud properties to changing cloud drop number concentrations for multi-phase arctic clouds. Present parametrizations assumed fixed cloud droplet number concentrations and these will be modified using M-PACE data.

Fridlind, Ann↗

GCM Simulations of the Aerosol Indirect Effect: Sensitivity to Cloud Parameterization and Aerosol Burden

We describe the coupling of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) to an online sulfur chemistry model and source models for organic matter and sea-salt that is used to estimate the aerosol indirect effect. The cloud droplet number concentration is diagnosed empirically from field experiment datasets over land and ocean that observe droplet number and all three aerosol types simultaneously; corrections are made for implied variations in cloud turbulence levels. The resulting cloud droplet number is used to calculate variations in droplet effective radius, which in turn allows us to predict aerosol effects on cloud optical thickness and microphysical process rates. We calculate the aerosol indirect effect by differencing the top-of-the-atmosphere net cloud radiative forcing for simulations with present-day vs. pre-industrial emissions. Both the first (radiative) and second (microphysical) indirect effects are explored. We test the sensitivity of our results to cloud parameterization assumptions that control the vertical distribution of cloud occurrence, the autoconversion rate, and the aerosol scavenging rate, each of which feeds back significantly on the model aerosol burden. The global mean aerosol indirect effect for all three aerosol types ranges from -1.55 to -4.36 W/sq m in our simulations. The results are quite sensitive to the pre-industrial background aerosol burden, with low pre-industrial burdens giving strong indirect effects, and to a lesser extent to the anthropogenic aerosol burden, with large burdens giving somewhat larger indirect effects. Because of this dependence on the background aerosol, model diagnostics such as albedo-particle size correlations and column cloud susceptibility, for which satellite validation products are available, are not good predictors of the resulting indirect effect.

Menon, Surabi↗

GCM Simulations of the Aerosol Indirect Effect: Sensitivity to Cloud Parameterization and Aerosol Burden

We describe the coupling of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) to an online sulfur chemistry model and source models for organic matter and sea-salt that is used to estimate the aerosol indirect effect. The cloud droplet number concentration is diagnosed empirically from field experiment datasets over land and ocean that observe droplet number and all three aerosol types simultaneously; corrections are made for implied variations in cloud turbulence levels. The resulting cloud droplet number is used to calculate variations in droplet effective radius, which in turn allows us to predict aerosol effects on cloud optical thickness and microphysical process rates. We calculate the aerosol indirect effect by differencing the top-of-the-atmosphere net cloud radiative forcing for simulations with present-day vs. pre-industrial emissions. Both the first (radiative) and second (microphysical) indirect effects are explored. We test the sensitivity of our results to cloud parameterization assumptions that control the vertical distribution of cloud occurrence, the autoconversion rate, and the aerosol scavenging rate, each of which feeds back significantly on the model aerosol burden. The global mean aerosol indirect effect for all three aerosol types ranges from -1.55 to -4.36 W m(exp -2) in our simulations. The results are quite sensitive to the pre-industrial background aerosol burden, with low pre-industrial burdens giving strong indirect effects, and to a lesser extent to the anthropogenic aerosol burden, with large burdens giving somewhat larger indirect effects. Because of this dependence on the background aerosol, model diagnostics such as albedo-particle size correlations and column cloud susceptibility, for which satellite validation products are available, are not good predictors of the resulting indirect effect.

Menon, Surabi↗