Engineering topics

Merryfield, William J.

Publications and source records attributed to Merryfield, William J..

8 records

DOE OSTI2024

Predicting September Arctic Sea Ice: A Multimodel Seasonal Skill Comparison

This study quantifies the state of the art in the rapidly growing field of seasonal Arctic sea ice prediction. A novel multimodel dataset of retrospective seasonal predictions of September Arctic sea ice is created and analyzed, consisting of community contributions from 17 statistical models and 17 dynamical models. Prediction skill is compared over the period 2001–20 for predictions of pan-Arctic sea ice extent (SIE), regional SIE, and local sea ice concentration (SIC) initialized on 1 June, 1 July, 1 August, and 1 September. This diverse set of statistical and dynamical models can individually predict linearly detrended pan-Arctic SIE anomalies with skill, and a multimodel median prediction has correlation coefficients of 0.79, 0.86, 0.92, and 0.99 at these respective initialization times. Regional SIE predictions have similar skill to pan-Arctic predictions in the Alaskan and Siberian regions, whereas regional skill is lower in the Canadian, Atlantic, and central Arctic sectors. The skill of dynamical and statistical models is generally comparable for pan-Arctic SIE, whereas dynamical models outperform their statistical counterparts for regional and local predictions. The prediction systems are found to provide the most value added relative to basic reference forecasts in the extreme SIE years of 1996, 2007, and 2012. SIE prediction errors do not show clear trends over time, suggesting that there has been minimal change in inherent sea ice predictability over the satellite era. Overall, this study demonstrates that there are bright prospects for skillful operational predictions of September sea ice at least 3 months in advance.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Advances in the Application and Utility of Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Predictions

The subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictive time scale, encompassing lead times ranging from 2 weeks to a season, is at the frontier of forecasting science. Forecasts on this time scale provide opportunities for enhanced application-focused capabilities to complement existing weather and climate services and products. There is, however, a “knowledge–value” gap, where a lack of evidence and awareness of the potential socioeconomic benefits of S2S forecasts limits their wider uptake. To address this gap, here we present the first global community effort at summarizing relevant applications of S2S forecasts to guide further decision-making and support the continued development of S2S forecasts and related services. Focusing on 12 sectoral case studies spanning public health, agriculture, water resource management, renewable energy and utilities, and emergency management and response, we draw on recent advancements to explore their application and utility. These case studies mark a significant step forward in moving from potential to actual S2S forecasting applications. We show that by placing user needs at the forefront of S2S forecast development—demonstrating both skill and utility across sectors—this dialogue can be used to help promote and accelerate the awareness, value, and cogeneration of S2S forecasts. We also highlight that while S2S forecasts are increasingly gaining interest among users, incorporating probabilistic S2S forecasts into existing decision-making operations is not trivial. Nevertheless, S2S forecasting represents a significant opportunity to generate useful, usable, and actionable forecast applications for and with users that will increasingly unlock the potential of this forecasting time scale.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Data Set for Intercomparing the Transient Behavior of Dynamical Model-Based Subseasonal to Decadal Climate Predictions

Climate predictions using coupled models in different time scales, from intraseasonal to decadal, are usually affected by initial shocks, drifts, and biases, which reduce the prediction skill. These arise from inconsistencies between different components of the coupled models and from the tendency of the model state to evolve from the prescribed initial conditions toward its own climatology over the course of the prediction. Aiming to provide tools and further insight into the mechanisms responsible for initial shocks, drifts, and biases, this paper presents a novel data set developed within the Long Range Forecast Transient Intercomparison Project, LRFTIP. This data set has been constructed by averaging hindcasts over available prediction years and ensemble members to form a hindcast climatology, that is a function of spatial variables and lead time, and thus results in a useful tool for characterizing and assessing the evolution of errors as well as the physical mechanisms responsible for them. A discussion on such errors at the different time scales is provided along with plausible ways forward in the field of climate predictions

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Initialized Earth system prediction from subseasonal to decadal timescales

Initialized Earth system predictions are made by starting a numerical prediction model in a state as consistent as possible to observations, and running it forward in time for up to ten years. Skillful predictions at time slices from subseasonal to seasonal (S2S), seasonal to interannual (S2I) and seasonal to decadal (S2D) offer information useful for various stakeholders, from agriculture to water resource management, and human and infrastructure safety. In this Review, we examine the processes influencing predictability, and discuss estimates of skill across S2S, S2I and S2D timescales. There are encouraging signs that skillful predictions can be made: at S2S timescales, there has been some skill in predicting the Madden-Julian Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation; at S2I in predicting the El Niño-Southern Oscillation; and at S2D, in predicting variability in North Atlantic sea surface temperatures. However, challenges remain, and future work must prioritise reducing model error, more effectively communicating forecasts to users, and increasing process and mechanistic understanding that could increase predictive skill and, in turn, confidence. As numerical models progress towards Earth system models, initialized predictions are expanding to include prediction of sea-ice, air pollution, terrestrial and ocean biochemistry which can bring clear benefit to society and various stakeholders.

climate prediction↗

NASA NTRS2013

The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME): Phase-1 Seasonal to Interannual Prediction, Phase-2 Toward Developing Intra-Seasonal Prediction

The recent US National Academies report "Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability" was unequivocal in recommending the need for the development of a North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) operational predictive capability. Indeed, this effort is required to meet the specific tailored regional prediction and decision support needs of a large community of climate information users. The multi-model ensemble approach has proven extremely effective at quantifying prediction uncertainty due to uncertainty in model formulation, and has proven to produce better prediction quality (on average) then any single model ensemble. This multi-model approach is the basis for several international collaborative prediction research efforts, an operational European system and there are numerous examples of how this multi-model ensemble approach yields superior forecasts compared to any single model. Based on two NOAA Climate Test Bed (CTB) NMME workshops (February 18, and April 8, 2011) a collaborative and coordinated implementation strategy for a NMME prediction system has been developed and is currently delivering real-time seasonal-to-interannual predictions on the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) operational schedule. The hindcast and real-time prediction data is readily available (e.g., http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/SOURCES/.Models/.NMME/) and in graphical format from CPC (http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd51yf/NMME/index.html). Moreover, the NMME forecast are already currently being used as guidance for operational forecasters. This paper describes the new NMME effort, presents an overview of the multi-model forecast quality, and the complementary skill associated with individual models.

NOAA CPC↗

NASA NTRS1998

Phase Inversion: Inferring Solar Subphotospheric Flow and Other Asphericity from the Distortion of Acoustic Waves

A method is proposed for analyzing an almost monochromatic train of waves propagating in a single direction in an inhomogeneous medium that is not otherwise changing in time. An effective phase is defined in terms of the Hilbert transform of the wave function, which is related, via the JWKB approximation, to the spatial variation of the background state against which the wave is propagating. The contaminating effect of interference between the truly monochromatic components of the train is eliminated using its propagation properties. Measurement errors, provided they are uncorrelated, are manifest as rapidly varying noise; although that noise can dominate the raw phase-processed signal, it can largely be removed by low-pass filtering. The intended purpose of the analysis is to determine the distortion of solar oscillations induced by horizontal structural variation and material flow. It should be possible to apply the method directly to sectoral modes. The horizontal phase distortion provides a measure of longitudinally averaged properties of the Sun in the vicinity of the equator, averaged also in radius down to the depth to which the modes penetrate. By combining such averages from different modes, the two-dimensional variation can be inferred by standard inversion techniques. After taking due account of horizontal refraction, it should be possible to apply the technique also to locally sectoral modes that propagate obliquely to the equator and thereby build a network of lateral averages at each radius, from which the full three-dimensional structure of the Sun can, in principle, be determined as an inverse Radon transform.

Gough, Douglas↗

NASA NTRS1991

Nonlinear behavior of solar gravity modes driven by He-3 in the core. II - Numerical simulations

The nonlinear behavior of gravity-mode oscillations driven by He-3-destroying reactions in the solar core has been examined by numerically integrating equations describing a very simplified model. The results of a previous bifurcation analysis, which suggest that such oscillations are unlikely to attain amplitudes sufficient to trigger core convection, are verified. These results are extended to models whose nuclear reaction rates and thermal stratification represent the core somewhat more accurately. Nonlinear processes give rise to a preference for the oscillations to develop as standing waves rather than traveling waves, thus breaking the degeneracy between these two types of motion which exists in linearized theory. Study of the large-amplitude behavior of the oscillations is hindered by a tendency for the model to become thermally unstable.

Merryfield, William J.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Nonlinear behavior of solar gravity modes driven by He-3 in the core. I - Bifurcation analysis

The nonlinear development of solar gravity modes driven by He-3 burning in the solar core is investigated by means of an idealized dynamical model. Possible outcomes that have been suggested in the literature include the triggering of subcritical direct convection, leading to core mixing, and the saturation of the excitation processes, leading to sustained finite-amplitude oscillations. The present simple model suggests that the latter is the more likely. The limiting amplitude of the oscillations is estimated, ignoring possible resonances with other gravity modes, to be of order 10 km/s at the solar surface. Such oscillations would be easily observable. That large-amplitude gravity modes have not been observed suggests either that these modes are not unstable in the present era or that they are limited to much smaller amplitudes by resonant coupling.

Merryfield, William J.↗