Engineering topics
Publications and source records attributed to Meyers, Bennet.
Agenda 1. Introduction to Solar Data Tools 2. Brief overview of signal decomposition 3. New SDT features available as of version 1.3.2 4. New methods for executing SDT: Dask and Marimo
We consider the problem of forecasting net load over a horizon such as one day, using a trailing window of past net load values as well as date and time. We focus on three variations on this problem: point forecasts, marginal quantile forecasts, and generating conditional samples of the future value. We propose a method that relies on linear regression using some custom engineered time-based features to capture multiple periodicities, such as daily, weekly, and seasonal, and their interactions. Our proposed models are readily interpretable, and rely on efficient and reliable convex optimization [1] to fit. We illustrate our method on four years worth of hourly net load data, comparing predictions made with various subsets of the features.
We present a novel method for modeling time-dependent statistics in the power signal generated by a photovoltaic (PV) system. Our white-box machine learning method is interpretable and auditable, based on principles of multiperiodic basis functions and convex optimization. Our proposed method of time dilating the daily signal to remove night time values results in a novel representation of PV power signals, evocative of a ‘Bundt cake’. The proposed model describes the marginal distribution of power output as a function of date and time. The resulting probabilistic model of a PV system can be used to perform a variety of tasks, and here, we demonstrate the application of clear sky detection.
In this research, we assess the viability of four different, publicly available algorithms for estimating the azimuth and tilt parameters of solar photovoltaic systems using only the associated AC power time series data and site latitude-longitude coordinates. In this work, we curated a benchmarking data set of 44 fixed-tilt systems, comprising 275 measured AC power inverter data streams, with known azimuth and tilt parameters. Additionally, we isolated test cases in the data set with real- world issues, including shading and clipping, to determine how algorithm performance varies based on the presence of these phenomena. Using this data set for benchmarking, we evaluated the estimated vs. actual system characteristics for each algorithm, as well as the associated algorithm execution time using a standardized benchmarking process. The two highest performing algorithms were the Solar Data Tools and the PVWatts 5- based methods, which both achieved a median absolute error of approximately 5 and 1 degrees for azimuth and tilt, respectively. During run time analysis, the SDT method was approximately 5 times faster than the PVWatts 5-based method, with the median execution time for a stream varying between 6 and 8 seconds vs. a median run time of 31 seconds for the PVWatts 5-based method.
The Validation Hub will be a clearinghouse for the transfer of novel algorithms and software from the PV research community to industry. Potential algorithms tested in the Hub could include the estimation of various PV loss factors and the detection of various operational issues. The primary function of the Hub will be for developers to submit executable code which will run on hosted data sets. Developers will receive private reports on the accuracy and performance (e.g., run-time) of the submitted algorithms, and public high level summaries will be hosted. These summaries will indicate the organization who submitted the algorithm (e.g., links to GitHub pages, documentation websites, etc.), high-level accuracy metrics, and standardized performance metrics. These results will be stored in a publicly available database, accessible through the Hub, with the ability for users to sort and filter the results. In short, the Hub will be presented to public users as a collection of interactive leaderboards, organized around specific analysis tasks pertinent to the PV data science community. These tasks include things such as the estimation of various PV loss factors and the detection of various operational issues. We will present progress on the development of this hub, including preliminary results of comparative validation of PV data science algorithms and progress towards building the platform itself.
In this research, we assess the viability of four different, publicly available algorithms for estimating the azimuth and tilt parameters of solar photovoltaic systems using only the associated AC power time series data and site latitude-longitude coordinates. In this work, we curated a benchmarking data set of 44 fixed-tilt systems, comprising 275 measured AC power inverter data streams, with known azimuth and tilt parameters. Additionally, we isolated test cases in the data set with real-world issues, including shading and clipping, to determine how algorithm performance varies based on the presence of these phenomena. Using this data set for benchmarking, we evaluated the estimated vs. actual system characteristics for each algorithm, as well as the associated algorithm execution time using a standardized benchmarking process. The two highest performing algorithms were the Solar Data Tools and the PVWatts 5-based methods, which both achieved a median absolute error of approximately 5 and 1 degrees for azimuth and tilt, respectively. During run time analysis, the SDT method was approximately 5 times faster than the PVWatts 5-based method, with the median execution time for a stream varying between 6 and 8 seconds vs. a median run time of 31 seconds for the PVWatts 5-based method.
In this research, three variations of time shift detection algorithms were tested for their ability to detect time shift issues (including daylight savings time and random time shifts) in measured PV data sets. Two algorithms from the Python PVAnalytics package were assessed, and one algorithm from the Solar-Data-Tools package was assessed. Each algorithm's ability to accurately detect and measure time shifts was assessed.
Estimating PV array location and orientation from real-world power datasets.
Tools for performing common tasks on solar PV data signals. These tasks include finding clear days in a data set, common data transforms, and fixing time stamp issues. These tools are designed to be automatic and require little if any input from the user. Libraries are included to help with data IO and plotting as well.
Statistical estimation of a clear sky signal from PV system power data.
Abstract The IEA PVPS Task 13 group, experts who focus on photovoltaic performance, operation, and reliability from several leading R&D centers, universities, and industrial companies, is developing a framework for the calculation of performance loss rates of a large number of commercial and research photovoltaic (PV) power plants and their related weather data coming across various climatic zones. The general steps to calculate the performance loss rate are (i) input data cleaning and grading; (ii) data filtering; (iii) performance metric selection, corrections, and aggregation; and finally, (iv) application of a statistical modeling method to determine the performance loss rate value. In this study, several high‐quality power and irradiance datasets have been shared, and the participants of the study were asked to calculate the performance loss rate of each individual system using their preferred methodologies. The data are used for benchmarking activities and to define capabilities and uncertainties of all the various methods. The combination of data filtering, metrics (performance ratio or power based), and statistical modeling methods are benchmarked in terms of (i) their deviation from the average value and (ii) their uncertainty, standard error, and confidence intervals. It was observed that careful data filtering is an essential foundation for reliable performance loss rate calculations. Furthermore, the selection of the calculation steps filter/metric/statistical method is highly dependent on one another, and the steps should not be assessed individually.
The reliability, durability and lifetime performance of passivated emitter, rear cell (PERC) modules used in real-world PV power plants is a critical challenge underlying the rapid adoption and bankability of these PERC cells, whose high efficiency help reduce the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE). We propose a degradation-science study of PERC module degradation pathways, benchmarking them relative to known degradation mechanisms and pathways of the incumbent aluminum back surface field (Al-BSF) modules exposed to real-world and accelerated exposure conditions.
An algorithm for creating a low-dimensional representation (fingerprint) of daily photovoltaic solar power generation signals.