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Michael Aftosmis

Publications and source records attributed to Michael Aftosmis.

At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2023

Risk Assessment for Asteroid Impact Threat Scenarios

Asteroid impacts can cause a wide range of damage through multiple potential hazards, from localized blast waves or thermal radiation, to tsunami inundation, to global climatic effects. The level of risk posed by these hazards depends not only upon their extent and severity, but also upon the likelihood of the various damage ranges. Some consequences may be more moderate but very likely, while others may be unlikely but catastrophic. Evaluating the risk from these hazards involves substantial uncertainties across all aspects of the problem, including the properties of the asteroid itself, the specifics of its entry, and the complex high-energy damage physics involved. NASA’s Asteroid Threat Assessment Project performs Probabilistic Asteroid Impact Risk (PAIR) assessments that use fast-running entry and hazard models to evaluate millions of impact cases representing the distributions of these many uncertain parameters. This paper presents current probabilistic asteroid impact risk assessment modeling tools and approaches used for evaluating specific asteroid impact threat cases. We give an overview of the current PAIR model used to support impact threat scenarios and discuss some of the key applications of these assessment in supporting response decisions and planetary defense preparedness. We then present the results and key findings from the recent 2023 PDC hypothetical impact exercise as an example of the primary types of risk results and metrics being developed to inform and support those mitigation and response decisions.

SMD↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Probabilistic Blast Damage Modeling Uncertainties and Sensitivities

Blast overpressure is the predominant source of ground damage posed by potentially hazardous asteroid strikes. Estimates of the extent, severity, and likelihoods of potential blast damage regions will be one of the key metrics needed to mount civil defense or disaster response plans in the face of an impending impact. However, there are many inherent sources of uncertainty in evaluating the damage, both in characterizing the properties of the incoming object and in the approaches used to model the entry/impact and resulting damage, which make it difficult to produce a single ‘accurate’ or ‘best guess’ prediction of ground damage. The current 2021 PDC hypothetical impact scenario poses a particular challenge due to its short warning time. The need for rapid disaster response to prepare for an immanent impact, combined with lack of observational opportunities to refine basic knowledge about the object’s basic size and properties, make understanding the range and relative likelihood of consequences particularly critical. The potential damage caused by these blasts can be evaluated using a range of modeling and simulation approaches and levels of fidelity. Fast-running engineering-level models can be used to run large numbers of probabilistically sampled cases covering wide variations of uncertain properties or parameters. High-fidelity simulations, on the other hand, can capture more detailed/accurate blast physics, but can only be performed for a small selection of specific cases, requiring many assumptions to be made about the initial object and its unpredictable entry/breakup characteristics. In order to provide a more complete picture of the potential threat for effective disaster response, both types of analysis need to be employed together. In this approach, high-fidelity simulations are used to refine and anchor engineering models, and the probabilistic engineering models are used to evaluate broad parameters spaces and guide selection of the most pertinent simulation cases for a given scenario. This presentation expands upon the probabilistic asteroid impact risk assessments being performed as part of the 2021 PDC hypothetical impact exercise, focusing on key aspects of blast damage modeling uncertainties and sensitivities. We review the current modeling and simulation approaches employed in the current assessment, compare the relative levels of uncertainty stemming from each main element of the problem (i.e., knowledge of the asteroid properties, modeling of the atmospheric entry/breakup and airburst, and estimates of the ground damage from the resulting blasts waves), and highlight any notable trends and sensitivities for the current scenario case.

SMD↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Medium-Fidelity CFD Modeling of Multicopter Wakes for Airborne Sensor Measurements

A steady-state multicopter simulation capability leveraging automated Cartesian grid generation and a blade element source term rotor model was used to investigate multi-rotor aerodynamics in and out of ground effect. Simulations demonstrated that this model is able to predict reasonably accurate thrust in ground effect for both single and multiple propeller cases. The method yielded accurate lift and drag predictions for a commercial quadcopter when compared to recent wind tunnel test data. This aircraft was then simulated in a variety of flight conditions, including both hover and edgewise forward flight, to determine if generalized guidelines for airborne sensor placement could be developed. Velocity perturbation magnitudes showed large regions of affected air upstream of the vehicle at low speeds, which contracted as the vehicle’s speed was increased. Placing the sensors more than one characteristic length ahead of or above the aircraft reduces errors from rotor-induced flow at higher speeds. For low-speed forward flight, the entrainment of flow into the propeller wakes introduces significant flow turning above the aircraft, suggesting that a forward location, with more moderate perturbations, could be advantageous for these conditions.

ARMD↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Introduction to Asteroid Impact Risk Assessment

This presentation provides an introductory overview of key factors involved in the asteroid impact threat assessment and risk modeling performed for the Planetary Defense Conference hypothetical impact exercises.

ATAP↗