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Michael Durand

Publications and source records attributed to Michael Durand.

A Framework for Estimating Global River Discharge From the Surface Water and Ocean Topography Satellite Mission

The Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission will vastly expand measurements of global rivers, providing critical new data sets for both gaged and ungaged basins. SWOT discharge products (available approximately 1 year after launch) will provide discharge for all river that reaches wider than 100 m. In this paper, we describe how SWOT discharge produced and archived by the US and French space agencies will be computed from measurements of river water surface elevation, width, and slope and ancillary data, along with expected discharge accuracy. We present for the first time a complete estimate of the SWOT discharge uncertainty budget, with separate terms for random (standard error) and systematic (bias) uncertainty components in river discharge time series. We expect that discharge uncertainty will be less than 30% for two-thirds of global reaches and will be dominated by bias. Separate river discharge estimates will combine both SWOT and in situ data; these “gage-constrained” discharge estimates can be expected to have lower systematic uncertainty. Temporal variations in river discharge time series will be dominated by random error and are expected to be estimated within 15% for nearly all reaches, allowing accurate inference of event flow dynamics globally, including in ungaged basins. We believe this level of accuracy lays the groundwork for SWOT to enable breakthroughs in global hydrologic science.

Michael Durand↗

Perspective on Satellite-Based Land Data Assimilation to Estimate Water Cycle Components in an Era of Advanced Data Availability and Model Sophistication

The beginning of the 21st century is marked by a rapid growth of land surface satellite data and model sophistication. This offers new opportunities to estimate multiple components of the water cycle via satellite-based land data assimilation (DA) across multiple scales. By resolving more processes in land surface models and by coupling the land, the atmosphere, and other Earth system compartments, the observed information can be propagated to constrain additional unobserved variables. Furthermore, access to more satellite observations enables the direct constraint of more and more components of the water cycle that are of interest to end users. However, the finer level of detail in models and data is also often accompanied by an increase in dimensions, with more state variables, parameters, or boundary conditions to estimate, and more observations to assimilate. This requires advanced DA methods and efficient solutions. One solution is to target specific observations for assimilation based on a sensitivity study or coupling strength analysis, because not all observations are equally effective in improving subsequent forecasts of hydrological variables, weather, agricultural production, or hazards through DA. This paper offers a perspective on current and future land DA development, and suggestions to optimally exploit advances in observing and modeling systems.

Data Assimilation↗

Development of a “Nature Run” for Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) for Snow Mission Development

Snow is a fundamental component of global and regional water budgets, particularly in mountainous areas and regions downstream that rely on snowmelt for water resources. Land surface models (LSMs) are commonly used to develop spatially distributed estimates of snow water equivalent (SWE) and runoff. However, LSMs are limited by uncertainties in model physics and parameters, among other factors. In this study, we describe the use of model calibration tools to improve snow simulations within the Noah-MP LSM as the first step in an observing system simulation experiment (OSSE). Noah-MP is calibrated against the University of Arizona (UA) SWE product over a western Colorado domain. With spatially varying calibrated parameters, we run calibrated and default Noah-MP simulations for water years 2010–20. By evaluating both simulations against the UA dataset, we show that calibration decreases domain averaged temporal RMSE and bias for snow depth from 0.15 to 0.13 m and from −0.036 to −0.0023 m, respectively, and improves the timing of snow ablation. Increased snow simulation performance also improves estimates of model-simulated runoff in four of six study basins, though only one has statistically significant improvement. Spatially distributed Noah-MP snow parameters perform better than default uniform values. We demonstrate that calibrating variables related to snow albedo calculations and rain–snow partitioning, among other processes, is a necessary step for creating a nature run that reasonably approximates true snow conditions for the OSSEs. Additionally, the inclusion of a snowfall scaling term can address biases in precipitation from meteorological forcing datasets, further improving the utility of LSMs for generating reliable spatiotemporal estimates of snow.

Melissa L. Wrzesien↗

Achieving Breakthroughs in Global Hydrologic Science by Unlocking the Power of Multisensor, Multidisciplinary Earth Observations

Over the last half century, remote sensing has transformed hydrologic science. Whereas early efforts were devoted to observation of discrete variables, we now consider spaceborne missions dedicated to interlinked global hydrologic processes.Furthermore, cloud computing and computational techniquesare accelerating analyses of these data. How will the hydrologic community use these new resources to better understand the world’s water and relatedchallenges facing society? In this Commentary, we suggest that optimizing the benefits of remote sensing for advancing hydrologic research will happen byintegratingmultidisciplinary and multisensor data, leveraging commercial satellite measurements, and employingdata assimilation, cloud computing, and machine learning.We provide several recommendations to these ends. Plain Language Summary Observations from satellites have transformed hydrologic science. Early efforts, five decades ago, mapped attributes like snow cover, rainfall, topography, and vegetation, but now we consider new missions specifically designed to study global hydrologic processes. We also take advantageof new technologies like cloud computing and artificial intelligence. We describe strategiesfor maximizing the benefits of remote sensing for hydrology, encouraging research across disciplines using multiple sensors, using new commercially available satellites, and combining remote sensing measurements with hydrologic models.

Michael Durand↗

Constrained Inversion of a Microwave Snowpack Emission Model Using Dictionary Matching: Applications for GPM Satellite

This article presents a new algorithmic framework for multilayer inversion of the dense media radiative transfer (DMRT) equations of snowpack emission, with particular emphasis on the role of high-frequency microwave channels above 60 GHz. The approach relies on dictionary matching and locally constrained least squares. The results demonstrate that the algorithm can invert the DMRT model and retrieve depth, density, and grain size of a single-layer snowpack when dependencies of density and grain size on depth are properly accounted for. However, as the number of layers increases, the sensitivity of the inversion to observation noise grows markedly. Using observations, over the Great Plains in the United States, from the microwave imager onboard the global precipitation measurement (GPM, 10-166 GHz) core satellite, the initial results demonstrate that under a clear-sky condition and no vegetation canopy, the algorithm is capable to retrieve the snow depth and water equivalent of seasonal snow with a mean absolute error (MAE) of less than 0.15 m--when compared to the high-resolution analysis data from the SNOw Data Assimilation System (SNODAS).

Snow↗

Microwave Radiometry at Frequencies from 500 to 1400 MHz: An Emerging Technology for Earth Observations

Microwave radiometry has provided valuable spaceborne observations of Earth's geophysical properties for decades. The recent SMOS, Aquarius, and SMAP satellites have demonstrated the value of measurements at 1400 MHz for observing surface soil moisture, sea surface salinity, sea ice thickness, soil freeze/thaw state, and other geophysical variables. However, the information obtained is limited by penetration through the subsurface at 1400 MHz and by a reduced sensitivity to surface salinity in cold or wind-roughened waters. Recent airborne experiments have shown the potential of brightness temperature measurements from 500–1400 MHz to address these limitations by enabling sensing of soil moisture and sea ice thickness to greater depths, sensing of temperature deep within ice sheets, improved sensing of sea salinity in cold waters, and enhanced sensitivity to soil moisture under vegetation canopies. However, the absence of significant spectrum reserved for passive microwave measurements in the 500–1400 MHz band requires both an opportunistic sensing strategy and systems for reducing the impact of radio-frequency interference. Here, we summarize the potential advantages and applications of 500–1400 MHz microwave radiometry for Earth observation and review recent experiments and demonstrations of these concepts. We also describe the remaining questions and challenges to be addressed in advancing to future spaceborne operation of this technology along with recommendations for future research activities.

Microwave radiometry↗

Microwave Radiometry at Frequencies From 500 to 1400 MHz: An Emerging Technology for Earth Observations

Microwave radiometry has provided valuable spaceborne observations of Earth's geophysical properties for decades. The recent SMOS, Aquarius, and SMAP satellites have demonstrated the value of measurements at 1400 MHz for observing surface soil moisture, sea surface salinity, sea ice thickness, soil freeze/thaw state, and other geophysical variables. However, the information obtained is limited by penetration through the subsurface at 1400 MHz and by a reduced sensitivity to surface salinity in cold or wind-roughened waters. Recent airborne experiments have shown the potential of brightness temperature measurements from 500–1400 MHz to address these limitations by enabling sensing of soil moisture and sea ice thickness to greater depths, sensing of temperature deep within ice sheets, improved sensing of sea salinity in cold waters, and enhanced sensitivity to soil moisture under vegetation canopies. However, the absence of significant spectrum reserved for passive microwave measurements in the 500–1400 MHz band requires both an opportunistic sensing strategy and systems for reducing the impact of radio-frequency interference. Here, we summarize the potential advantages and applications of 500–1400 MHz microwave radiometry for Earth observation and review recent experiments and demonstrations of these concepts. We also describe the remaining questions and challenges to be addressed in advancing to future spaceborne operation of this technology along with recommendations for future research activities.

microwave radiometry↗

Estimating Alpine Snow Depth by Combining Multi-Frequency Passive Radiance Observations with Ensemble Snowpack Modeling

This paper presents a physically-based snow depth retrieval algorithm adapted for deep mountainous snowpack and airborne multifrequency (10.7, 18.7, 37.0 and 89.0 GHz) passive microwave (PM) radiance observations from a single flight. The algorithm employs a single forecast-analysis cycle of a traditional sequential assimilation scheme. It uses an ensemble of multi-layer snowpack model runs to resolve snow microstructure and melt-refreeze crusts, andmicrowave radiative transfer models to relate snow properties to microwave measurements.Snow depth was retrieved at a 120 m spatial resolution over three 1 km2 Intensive Study Area (ISA) within the Rabbit Ears Meso-Cell Study Area (MSA) from the NASA Cold Land Processes Experiment (CLPX) in Colorado (United States) for one date in February 2003. When evaluated against in situ observations, root mean square error (RMSE) of the snow depth from the assimilation was 13.3 cm for areas with low (<5 %) forest cover, which was a reduction of 48 % in the RMSE compared with the modeled snow depth when the PM observations were not assimilated; indicating a ~5% relative error of the posterior snow depth with respect to the average snow depth (200 cm) measured at these pixels. For pixels with forest cover ranging from 5-15% and 15-30%, results were improved (R2 increased from 0.65 to 0.71 and from 0 to 0.38, respectively) by introducing a forest radiative transfer model during the assimilation.

Airborne Multifrequency↗