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Middleton, Richard Stephen

Publications and source records attributed to Middleton, Richard Stephen.

9 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

A Hierarchical Framework for CO2 Storage Capacity in Deep Saline Aquifer Formations

Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) storage in deep saline aquifers is a vital option for CO 2 mitigation at a large scale. Determining storage capacity is one of the crucial steps toward large-scale deployment of CO 2 storage. Results of capacity assessments tend toward a consensus that sufficient resources are available in saline aquifers in many parts of the world. However, current CO 2 capacity assessments involve significant inconsistencies and uncertainties caused by various technical assumptions, storage mechanisms considered, algorithms, and data types and resolutions. Furthermore, other constraint factors (such as techno-economic features, site suitability, risk, regulation, social-economic situation, and policies) significantly affect the storage capacity assessment results. Consequently, a consensus capacity classification system and assessment method should be capable of classifying the capacity type or even more related uncertainties. We present a hierarchical framework of CO 2 capacity to define the capacity types based on the various factors, algorithms, and datasets. Finally, a review of onshore CO 2 aquifer storage capacity assessments in China is presented as examples to illustrate the feasibility of the proposed hierarchical framework.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Geo Thermal Cloud: Cloud Fusion of Big Data and Multi-Physics Models using Machine Learning for Discovery, Exploration, and Development of Hidden Geothermal Resources

The project is motivated by the challenges, risks, and costs associated with geothermal exploration and production. Many processes and parameters impacting geothermal conditions are poorly understood. Diverse datasets are available to help characterize subsurface geothermal conditions (public and proprietary; satellite, airborne surveys, vegetation/water sampling, geological, geophysical, etc.). Yet, it is not clear how to properly leverage these datasets for geothermal exploration due to an incomplete understanding of how physical processes impacting subsurface geothermal conditions are represented in these observations. Recent advancements in machine learning (ML) provide great promise to resolve these issues. The tremendous challenges and risks of geothermal exploration and production bring the demand for novel ML methods and tools that can (1) analyze large field datasets, (2) assimilate model simulations (large inputs and outputs), (3) process sparse datasets, (4) perform transfer learning (between sites with different exploratory levels), (5) extract hidden geothermal signatures in the field and simulation data, (6) label geothermal resources and processes, (7) identify high-value data acquisition targets, and (8) guide geothermal exploration and production by selecting optimal exploration, production, and drilling strategies. Our goals and work under Phases 1 and 2 (as proposed) of this project address all these needs.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

COVID-19: Spatiotemporal social data analytics and machine learning for pandemic exploration and forecasting

This task focused on developing a preliminary approach to use machine learning (ML) to explore the relationship between county-level societal variables and COVID-19 parameters, including COVID-19 cases rates and counts and COVID-19 death rates and counts. The objective was to develop and test a prototype approach for linking COVID-19 and county-level data. The task focused on enhancing and applying existing LANL ML techniques to COVID-19. Our novel ML methods have been a subject of a recently approved U.S. patent. The codes based on these methods are already open-source released. Our ML tools (NMFk/NTFk) are applied to extract hidden features (signals, waves) in the analyzed datasets and automatically identify their optimal number. The features are extracted by identifying counties that have similarities between the county-level societal variables and the COVID-19 parameters. These demonstration analyses will facilitate the ongoing pandemic simulations and predictions performed by Los Alamos other institutions, as well as lay the groundwork for future work.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Machine-learning predictions of the shale wells’ performance

The ultra-low permeability nature of shale reservoirs leads to an extended linear flow and necessitates horizontal wells with multi-stage engineered fractures to efficiently extract hydrocarbons resources. These artificially-generated and naturally-occurring fractures form complex networks that create complex flow regimes which control oil production. These fractures are neither identical nor equally-spaced, which leads to a production profile with a masked onset of the boundary-dominated flow. The combination of the extended linear flow with the indeterminate onset of the boundary-dominated flow challenges the current deterministic analytic approaches to forecast the estimated ultimate recovery (EUR). In this work, we propose a novel machine-learning approach which overcomes these challenges and provides reliable EUR estimates based on field-wide analyses. We implement a novel unsupervised machine learning (ML) methodology, which allows for automatic identification of the optimal number of features (signals) present in the data based on non-negative matrix/tensor factorization coupled with k-means clustering incorporating regularization and physics constraints. In the presented analyses, the input data to the ML algorithm is the available (public) production history from the field collected at existing unconventional reservoirs. We validate our approach through hindcasting of the production data, where we achieved an excellent agreement. In addition, our approach is able to identify the poorly-performing wells, which could benefit from early refracing. Our approach provides fast and accurate estimations of the well performance without presumptions about the state of the well or the flow regime.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Identifying geologic characteristics and operational decisions to meet global carbon sequestration goals

Geologic carbon sequestration is the process of injecting and storing CO 2 in subsurface reservoirs and is an essential technology for global environmental security (e.g., climate change mitigation) and economic security (e.g., CO 2 tax credits). To meet energy, economic, and environmental goals, society will have to identify vast volumes of high-capacity, low-cost, and viable storage reservoirs for sequestering CO 2 . In turn, this requires understanding how major geologic characteristics (such as reservoir depth, thickness, permeability, porosity, and temperature) and design and operational decisions (such as injection well spacing) impact CO 2 injection rates, storage capacity, and economics. Although many numerical simulation tools exist, they cannot repeat the required thousands or millions of simulations to identify ideal reservoir properties and the sensitivity and interaction between geologic parameters and operational decisions. Here, we use SCO 2 T—a fast-running, reduced-order modeling framework—to explore the sensitivity of major geologic parameters and operational decisions to engineering (CO 2 injection rates, plume dimensions, and storage capacities and effectiveness) and costs. Our results show, for the first time, benefits and impacts such as allowing CO 2 plumes to overlap, how different well spacing patterns affect CO 2 sequestration, the effects on costs of including brine treatment and disposal, and the effect of restricting injection rates to 1 MtCO 2 per y based on well limitations. We reveal multiple novel and unintuitive findings including: (i) deeper reservoirs have reduced carbon sequestration costs until injection rates reach 1 MtCO 2 per y, at which point deeper reservoirs become more expensive, (ii) thicker formations allow for increased injection rates and storage capacity, but thickness barely impacts plume areas, (iii) higher geothermal gradients result in reduced sequestration costs, unless brine treatment/disposal costs are included, at which point reservoirs having lower geothermal gradients are more economical because they produce less brine for each unit of injected CO 2 , and (iv) allowing plumes to overlap has a significantly positive impact of increasing storage capacities but has only a small influence on reducing sequestration costs. Altogether, our results illustrate new scientific conclusions to help identify suitable sites to inject and store CO 2 , to help understand the complex interaction between geology and resulting costs, and to help support the pursuit of meeting global sequestration targets.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗