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Mitchell, Jason

Publications and source records attributed to Mitchell, Jason.

6 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Fast Evaluation of Viral Emerging Risks (FEVER): A computational tool for biosurveillance, diagnostics, and mutation typing of emerging viral pathogens

Viral pathogens can rapidly evolve, adapt to novel hosts, and evade human immunity. The early detection of emerging viral pathogens through biosurveillance coupled with rapid and accurate diagnostics are required to mitigate global pandemics. However, RNA viruses can mutate rapidly, hampering biosurveillance and diagnostic efforts. Here, we present a novel computational approach called FEVER (Fast Evaluation of Viral Emerging Risks) to design assays that simultaneously accomplish: 1) broad-coverage biosurveillance of an entire group of viruses, 2) accurate diagnosis of an outbreak strain, and 3) mutation typing to detect variants of public health importance. We demonstrate the application of FEVER to generate assays to simultaneously 1) detect sarbecoviruses for biosurveillance; 2) diagnose infections specifically caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2); and 3) perform rapid mutation typing of the D614G SARS-CoV-2 spike variant associated with increased pathogen transmissibility. These FEVER assays had a high in silico recall (predicted positive) up to 99.7% of 525,708 SARS-CoV-2 sequences analyzed and displayed sensitivities and specificities as high as 92.4% and 100% respectively when validated in 100 clinical samples. The D614G SARS-CoV-2 spike mutation PCR test was able to identify the single nucleotide identity at position 23,403 in the viral genome of 96.6% SARS-CoV-2 positive samples without the need for sequencing. This study demonstrates the utility of FEVER to design assays for biosurveillance, diagnostics, and mutation typing to rapidly detect, track, and mitigate future outbreaks and pandemics caused by emerging viruses.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

How New Mexico Leveraged a COVID-19 Case Forecasting Model to Preemptively Address the Healthcare Needs of the State: Quantitative Analysis

Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, US hospitals relied on static projections of future trends for long-term planning and were only beginning to consider forecasting methods for short-term planning of staffing and other resources. With the overwhelming burden imposed by COVID-19 on the health care system, an emergent need exists to accurately forecast hospitalization needs within an actionable timeframe. Our goal was to leverage an existing COVID-19 case and death forecasting tool to generate the expected number of concurrent hospitalizations, occupied intensive care unit (ICU) beds, and in-use ventilators 1 day to 4 weeks in the future for New Mexico and each of its five health regions. We developed a probabilistic model that took as input the number of new COVID-19 cases for New Mexico from Los Alamos National Laboratory’s COVID-19 Forecasts Using Fast Evaluations and Estimation tool, and we used the model to estimate the number of new daily hospital admissions 4 weeks into the future based on current statewide hospitalization rates. The model estimated the number of new admissions that would require an ICU bed or use of a ventilator and then projected the individual lengths of hospital stays based on the resource need. By tracking the lengths of stay through time, we captured the projected simultaneous need for inpatient beds, ICU beds, and ventilators. We used a postprocessing method to adjust the forecasts based on the differences between prior forecasts and the subsequent observed data. Thus, we ensured that our forecasts could reflect a dynamically changing situation on the ground. Forecasts made between September 1 and December 9, 2020, showed variable accuracy across time, health care resource needs, and forecast horizon. Forecasts made in October, when new COVID-19 cases were steadily increasing, had an average accuracy error of 20.0%, while the error in forecasts made in September, a month with low COVID-19 activity, was 39.7%. Across health care use categories, state-level forecasts were more accurate than those at the regional level. Although the accuracy declined as the forecast was projected further into the future, the stated uncertainty of the prediction improved. Forecasts were within 5% of their stated uncertainty at the 50% and 90% prediction intervals at the 3- to 4-week forecast horizon for state-level inpatient and ICU needs. However, uncertainty intervals were too narrow for forecasts of state-level ventilator need and all regional health care resource needs. Real-time forecasting of the burden imposed by a spreading infectious disease is a crucial component of decision support during a public health emergency. Our proposed methodology demonstrated utility in providing near-term forecasts, particularly at the state level. This tool can aid other stakeholders as they face COVID-19 population impacts now and in the future.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2018

CubeX: A Compact X-Ray Telescope Enables Both X-Ray Fluorescence Imaging Spectroscopy and Pulsar Timing Based Navigation

This paper describes the miniaturized X-ray telescope payload, CubeX, in the context of a lunar mission. The first part describes the payload in detail, the second part summarizes a small satellite mission concept that utilizes its compact form factor and performance. This instrument can be used for both X-ray fluorescence (XRF) imaging spectroscopy and X-ray pulsar timing-based navigation (XNAV). It combines high angular resolution (<1 arcminutes) Miniature Wolter-I X-ray optics (MiXO) with a common focal plane consisting of high spectral resolution (<150 eV at 1 keV) CMOS X-ray sensors and a high timing resolution (< 1 μsec) SDD X-ray sensor. This novel combination of the instruments enables both XRF measurements and XNAV operations without moving parts, in a small form factor (~1×1×6U, <6 kg). In this paper we illustrate one potential application for a lunar mission concept: The elemental composition of the Moon holds keys to understanding the origin and evolution of both the Moon and the Earth. X-ray fluorescence (XRF), induced either by solar X-ray flux or energetic ions, carries decisive signatures of surface elemental composition. In between XRF observations, CubeX also leverages the technology of high resolution X-ray imaging and time series measurements to conduct XNAV operations and evaluate their performance.

Lunar Science↗
NASA NTRS2015

SEXTANT - Station Explorer for X-Ray Timing and Navigation Technology

The Station Explorer for X-ray Timing and Navigation Technology (SEXTANT) is a NASA funded technology- demonstration. SEXTANT will, for the first time, demonstrate real-time, on-board X-ray Pulsar-based Navigation (XNAV), a significant milestone in the quest to establish a GPS-like navigation capability available throughout our Solar System and beyond. This paper describes the basic design of the SEXTANT system with a focus on core models and algorithms, and the design and continued development of the GSFC X-ray Navigation Laboratory Testbed (GXLT) with its dynamic pulsar emulation capability. We also present early results from GXLT modeling of the combined NICER X-ray timing instrument hardware and SEXTANT flight software algorithms.

X-rays↗
NASA NTRS2009

GPS Navigation for the Magnetospheric Multi-Scale Mission

In 2014. NASA is scheduled to launch the Magnetospheric Multiscale Mission (MMS), a four-satellite formation designed to monitor fluctuations in the Earth's magnetosphere. This mission has two planned phases with different orbits (1? x 12Re and 1.2 x 25Re) to allow for varying science regions of interest. To minimize ground resources and to mitigate the probability of collisions between formation members, an on-board orbit determination system consisting of a Global Positioning System (GPS) receiver and crosslink transceiver was desired. Candidate sensors would be required to acquire GPS signals both below and above the constellation while spinning at three revolutions-per-minute (RPM) and exchanging state and science information among the constellation. The Intersatellite Ranging and Alarm System (IRAS), developed by Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) was selected to meet this challenge. IRAS leverages the eight years of development GSFC has invested in the Navigator GPS receiver and its spacecraft communication expertise, culminating in a sensor capable of absolute and relative navigation as well as intersatellite communication. The Navigator is a state-of-the-art receiver designed to acquire and track weak GPS signals down to -147dBm. This innovation allows the receiver to track both the main lobe and the much weaker side lobe signals. The Navigator's four antenna inputs and 24 tracking channels, together with customized hardware and software, allow it to seamlessly maintain visibility while rotating. Additionally, an extended Kalman filter provides autonomous, near real-time, absolute state and time estimates. The Navigator made its maiden voyage on the Space Shuttle during the Hubble Servicing Mission, and is scheduled to fly on MMS as well as the Global Precipitation Measurement Mission (GPM). Additionally, Navigator's acquisition engine will be featured in the receiver being developed for the Orion vehicle. The crosslink transceiver is a 1/4 Watt transmitter utilizing a TDMA schedule to distribute a science quality message to all constellation members every ten seconds. Additionally the system generates one-way range measurements between formation members which is used as input to the Kalman filter. In preparation for the MMS Preliminary Design Review (PDR), the Navigator was required to pass a series of Technology Readiness Level (TRL) tests to earn the necessary TRL-6 classification. The TRL-6 level is achieved by demonstrating a prototype unit in a relevant end-to-end environment. The IRAS unit was able to meet all requirements during the testing phase, and has thus been TRL-6 qualified

Bamford, William↗