Engineering topics

Mitrovica, Jerry X.

Publications and source records attributed to Mitrovica, Jerry X..

5 records

DOE OSTI2023

Geodynamically corrected Pliocene shoreline elevations in Australia consistent with midrange projections of Antarctic ice loss

The Mid-Pliocene represents the most recent interval in Earth history with climatic conditions similar to those expected in the coming decades. Mid-Pliocene sea level estimates therefore provide important constraints on projections of future ice sheet behavior and sea level change but differ by tens of meters due to local distortion of paleoshorelines caused by mantle dynamics. We combine an Australian sea level marker compilation with geodynamic simulations and probabilistic inversions to quantify and remove these post-Pliocene vertical motions at continental scale. Dynamic topography accounts for most of the observed sea level marker deflection, and correcting for this effect and glacial isostatic adjustment yields a Mid-Pliocene global mean sea level of +16.0 (+10.4 to +21.5) m (50th/16th to 84th percentiles). Recalibration of recent high-end sea level projections using this revised estimate implies a more stable Antarctic Ice Sheet under future warming scenarios, consistent with midrange forecasts of sea level rise that do not incorporate a marine ice cliff instability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2016

The PRISM4 (mid-Piacenzian) Palaeoenvironmental Reconstruction

The mid-Piacenzian is known as a period of relative warmth when compared to the present day. A comprehensive understanding of conditions during the Piacenzian serves as both a conceptual model and a source for boundary conditions as well as means of verification of global climate model experiments. In this paper we present the PRISM4 reconstruction, a paleoenvironmental reconstruction of the mid-Piacenzian (approximately 3 Ma) containing data for paleogeography, land and sea ice, sea-surface temperature, vegetation, soils, and lakes. Our retrodicted paleogeography takes into account glacial isostatic adjustments and changes in dynamic topography. Soils and lakes, both significant as land surface features, are introduced to the PRISM reconstruction for the first time. Sea-surface temperature and vegetation reconstructions are unchanged but now have confidence assessments. The PRISM4 reconstruction is being used as boundary condition data for the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2) experiments.

soils↗

NASA NTRS2014

Probabilistic 21st and 22nd Century Sea-Level Projections at a Global Network of Tide-Gauge Sites

Sea-level rise due to both climate change and non-climatic factors threatens coastal settlements, infrastructure, and ecosystems. Projections of mean global sea-level (GSL) rise provide insufficient information to plan adaptive responses; local decisions require local projections that accommodate different risk tolerances and time frames and that can be linked to storm surge projections. Here we present a global set of local sea-level (LSL) projections to inform decisions on timescales ranging from the coming decades through the 22nd century. We provide complete probability distributions, informed by a combination of expert community assessment, expert elicitation, and process modeling. Between the years 2000 and 2100, we project a very likely (90% probability) GSL rise of 0.5–1.2 m under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5, 0.4–0.9 m under RCP 4.5, and 0.3–0.8 m under RCP 2.6. Site-to-site differences in LSL projections are due to varying non-climatic background uplift or subsidence, oceanographic effects, and spatially variable responses of the geoid and the lithosphere to shrinking land ice. The Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) constitutes a growing share of variance in GSL and LSL projections. In the global average and at many locations, it is the dominant source of variance in late 21st century projections, though at some sites oceanographic processes contribute the largest share throughout the century. LSL rise dramatically reshapes flood risk, greatly increasing the expected number of “1-in-10” and “1-in-100” year events.

sea level↗

NASA NTRS2007

Annual Variations in Water Storage and Precipitation in the Amazon Basin: Bounding Sink Terms in the Terrestrial Hydrological Balance using GRACE Satellite Gravity Data

We combine satellite gravity data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and precipitation measurements from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center's (CPC) Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) and the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), over the period from mid-2002 to mid-2006, to investigate the relative importance of sink (runoff and evaporation) and source (precipitation) terms in the hydrological balance of the Amazon Basin. When linear and quadratic terms are removed, the time series of land water storage variations estimated from GRACE exhibits a dominant annual signal of 250 mm peak-to-peak, which is equivalent to a water volume change of approximately 1800 cubic kilometers. A comparison of this trend with accumulated (i.e., integrated) precipitation shows excellent agreement and no evidence of basin saturation. The agreement indicates that the net runoff and evaporation contributes significantly less than precipitation to the annual hydrological mass balance. Indeed, raw residuals between the detrended water storage and precipitation anomalies range from plus or minus 40 mm. This range is consistent with streamflow measurements from the region, although the latter are characterized by a stronger annual signal than ow residuals, suggesting that runoff and evaporation may act to partially cancel each other.

Crowley, John W.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Land Water Storage within the Congo Basin Inferred from GRACE Satellite Gravity Data

GRACE satellite gravity data is used to estimate terrestrial (surface plus ground) water storage within the Congo Basin in Africa for the period of April, 2002 - May, 2006. These estimates exhibit significant seasonal (30 +/- 6 mm of equivalent water thickness) and long-term trends, the latter yielding a total loss of approximately 280 km(exp 3) of water over the 50-month span of data. We also combine GRACE and precipitation data set (CMAP, TRMM) to explore the relative contributions of the source term to the seasonal hydrological balance within the Congo Basin. We find that the seasonal water storage tends to saturate for anomalies greater than 30-44 mm of equivalent water thickness. Furthermore, precipitation contributed roughly three times the peak water storage after anomalously rainy seasons, in early 2003 and 2005, implying an approximately 60-70% loss from runoff and evapotranspiration. Finally, a comparison of residual land water storage (monthly estimates minus best-fitting trends) in the Congo and Amazon Basins shows an anticorrelation, in agreement with the 'see-saw' variability inferred by others from runoff data.

Crowley, John W.↗