Impact of cumulus initialization on the spinup of precipitation forecasts in the tropics
To ameliorate the precipitation spinup problem, i.e., the prediction model's inability to produce realistic precipitation rates at the beginning of the forecast period, the impact of a tropical initialization procedure on precipitation forecasts is examined. Attention is focused on the examination of the time behavior of precipitation rates and the closely associated variables of horizontal divergence and moisture during the first 42 time steps corresponding to 10.5 h. It is determined that the originally analyzed tropical divergence fields have realistic geographical distributions but there intensities seem to be too low by a factor of two.
Kasahara, Akira↗