Engineering topics

Modi, Vijay

Publications and source records attributed to Modi, Vijay.

6 records

DOE OSTI2021

Impacts of COVID-19 related stay-at-home restrictions on residential electricity use and implications for future grid stability

“Stay-at-home” orders and other health precautions enacted during the COVID-19 pandemic have led to substantial changes in residential electricity usage. Here, we conduct a case study to analyze data from 390 apartments in New York City (NYC) to examine the impacts of two key drivers of residential electricity usage: COVID-19 case-loads and the outdoor temperature. We develop a series of regression models to predict two characteristics of residential electricity usage on weekdays: The average occupied apartment’s consumption (kWh) over a 9am-5pm window and the hourly peak demand (Watt) over a 12pm-5pm window. Via a Monte Carlo simulation, we forecast the two usage characteristics under a possible scenario in which stay-at-home orders in NYC, or a similar metropolitan region, coincide with warm summer weather. Under the scenario, the 9am-5pm residential electricity usage on weekdays is predicted to be 15% – 24% higher than under prior, pre-pandemic conditions. This could lead to substantially higher utility costs for residents. Additionally, we predict that the residential hourly peak demand between 12pm and 5pm on weekdays could be 35% – 53% higher than that under pre-pandemic conditions. We conclude that the projected increase in peak demand - which might arise if stay-at-home guidelines coincided with hot weather conditions - could pose grid management challenges, especially for residential feeders. We also note that, if there is a longer lasting shift towards work and study-from-home, utilities will have to rethink load profile considerations. The applications of our predictive models to managing future smart-grid technology are also highlighted.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2021

Short-term apartment-level load forecasting using a modified neural network with selected auto-regressive features

Residential electricity load profiles and their diversity have become increasingly important to realize the benefits of Smart or Transactive Energy Networks (TENs). An important element of TENs will be practical, accurate, and implementable residential load forecasting techniques. While there have been many approaches to short-term load forecasting, few have included forecasting for individual households, partly because the high volatility and idiosyncrasies present in individual household load data can pose significant challenges. In this study, we develop a Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory-based neural network with Selected Autoregressive Features (termed a CLSAF model) to improve short-term household electricity load forecasting accuracy by employing three strategies: autoregressive features selection, exogenous features selection, and a “default” state to avoid overfitting at times of high load volatility. We include aggregations of apartments to floor and building level, because utilities may favor transactive approaches that rely on aggregator models, e.g., a cluster of consumers as opposed to an individual. We demonstrate that the CLSAF model, by virtue of its enhanced feature representation and modest computational resources, can accomplish load forecasting in a multi-family residential building across three spatial granularities (individual apartment/household, floor, and building levels), with an accuracy improvement of up to 25% compared to a persistence model. We propose a data screening technique to characterize time-series electricity-load data. This technique is suitable for integration into a TEN ecosystem and allows one to estimate confidence levels of the load forecasts to optimize computational resources and the risks associated with uncertain forecasts.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2020

Residential electricity conservation in response to auto-generated, multi-featured, personalized eco-feedback designed for large scale applications with utilities

While past research has shown that providing residents with feedback about their electricity usage can reduce demand and its associated environmental burdens, some questions remain regarding what makes such feedback most effective. We followed the electricity usage of 36 residents who each received 14 feedback messages over 2 months. Using approaches borrowed from Natural-Language-Processing, feedbacks were generated automatically, using 10 features in random combinations. Unlike in previous studies, each resident received varying types of messages over time. In 504 observations, the average prompted reduction in electricity usage was 11 ± 3%, compared to a control group of 89 residents who received no messages. Feedback types prompting the largest reductions were self-comparisons with one’s own earlier usage (average reduction 14%) and messages of high variety from one feedback-cycle to the next (average reduction 16%). Comparisons with neighbors did not prompt higher reductions on average. Instead, they prompted reductions only when a resident’s recent usage happened to be higher than the average usage of neighbors, and increases when the reverse was true. Finally, this behavior was exhibited by all residents and is likely explained by a norm-conforming mean reversion of residents to their neighbors’ average usage, rather than an anti-conform “boomerang” behavior previously suggested in similar contexts.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

MFRED, 10 second interval real and reactive power for groups of 390 US apartments of varying size and vintage

Abstract Building electricity is a major component of global energy use and its environmental impacts. Detailed data on residential electricity use have many interrelated research applications, from energy conservation to non-intrusive load monitoring, energy storage, integration of renewables, and electric vs. fossil-based heating. The dataset presented here, Multifamily Residential Electricity Dataset (MFRED), contains the electricity use of 390 apartments, ranging from studios to four-bedroom units. All apartments are located in the Northeastern United States (IECC-climate-zone 4 A), but differ in their heating/cooling system and construction year (early to late 20 th century). To adhere to privacy guidelines, data were averaged across 15 apartments each, based on annual electricity use. MFRED includes real and reactive power, at 10-second resolution, for January to December 2019 (246 million data points). The annual average real power per apartment is 343 W (3.27 W/m 2 of floor area), with strong variation between seasons and apartment size. Considering its large number of apartments, high time resolution, real and reactive power, and 12-month duration, MFRED is currently unique for the multifamily-sector.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1993

Modeling bristle lift-off in idealized brush seal configurations

We attempt in this paper to develop a model for the flow through brush seals and determine their elastic behavior in order to predict the dependence of brush/journal clearance on geometry and operating conditions. Several idealizations regarding brush seal configuration, flow conditions, and elastic behavior are made in the analysis in order to determine closed form parametric dependence. This formulation assumes that there is no initial interference between the bristle tip and the rotor. Also, interbristle, bristle-backing plate, and bristle-rotor friction is neglected. The bristle bundle or the brush seal as it is alternately called is assumed homogeneous and isotropic on a macroscopic scale so that a physical property like permeability is uniform. The fluid is assumed to be homogeneous, incompressible, viscous, and flowing under steady conditions. A schematic of a brush seal is shown. If the nominal bristle-shaft interference is absent then under static conditions the bristles may deflect axially due to the imposed pressure differential. This axial deflection may create a clearance permitting leakage flow in excess of that which occurs through the porous matrix formed by the bristle bundles. Under dynamic conditions the Couette flow created by shaft motion could be strong enough to cause bristle deflection and once again a clearance may develop. The paper proposes a means to determine this clearance (or at least describe its parametric dependence on geometry and operating conditions) under static as well as dynamic conditions.

Modi, Vijay↗

NASA NTRS1992

Optimum design of ninety degree bends

An algorithm for the optimum design of an internal flow component to obtain the maximum pressure rise is presented. Maximum pressure rise in a duct with simultaneous turning and diffusion is shown to be related to the control of flow separation on the passage walls. Such a flow is usually associated with downstream conditions that are desirable in turbomachinery and propulsion applications to ensure low loss and stable performance. The algorithm requires the solution of an 'adjoint' problem in addition to the 'direct' equations governing the flow in a body, which in the present analysis are assumed to be the laminar Navier-Stokes equations. The theoretical framework and computational algorithms presented in this study are for the steady Navier-Stokes equations. A procedure is developed for the numerical solution of the adjoint equations. This procedure is coupled with a direct solver in a design iteration loop, that provides a new shape with a higher pressure rise. This procedure is first validated for the design of optimum plane diffusers in two-dimensional flow. The direct Navier-Stokes and the 'adjoint' equations are solved using a finite volume formulation for spatial discretization in an artificial compressibility framework. A simplified version of the above approach is then utilized to design ninety degree diffusing bends. Calculations were carried out for a mean radius ratio at inlet of 2.5 and Reynolds numbers varying from 100 to 500. While at this stage laminar flows is assumed, it is shown that a similar approach can be conceived for turbulent flows.

Modi, Vijay↗