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Mog, Robert A.

Publications and source records attributed to Mog, Robert A..

Fractal Risk Assessment of ISS Propulsion Module in Meteoroid and Orbital Debris Environments

A unique and innovative risk assessment of the International Space Station (ISS) Propulsion Module is conducted using fractal modeling of the Module's response to the meteoroid and orbital debris environments. Both the environment models and structural failure modes due to the resultant hypervelocity impact phenomenology, as well as Module geometry, are investigated for fractal applicability. The fractal risk assessment methodology could produce a greatly simplified alternative to current methodologies, such as BUMPER analyses, while maintaining or increasing the number of complex scenarios that can be assessed. As a minimum, this innovative fractal approach will provide an independent assessment of existing methodologies in a unique way.

Mog, Robert A.

Systems Engineering Programmatic Estimation Using Technology Variance

Unique and innovative system programmatic estimation is conducted using the variance of the packaged technologies. Covariance analysis is performed on the subsystems and components comprising the system of interest. Technological "return" and "variation" parameters are estimated. These parameters are combined with the model error to arrive at a measure of system development stability. The resulting estimates provide valuable information concerning the potential cost growth of the system under development.

Mog, Robert A.

Systems Engineering Programmatic Estimation Using Technology Variance

Unique and innovative system programmatic estimation is conducted using the variance of the packaged technologies. Covariance analysis is performed oil the subsystems and components comprising the system of interest. Technological "returns" and "variation" parameters, are estimated. These parameters are combined with the model error to arrive at a measure of system development stability. The resulting estimates provide valuable information concerning the potential cost growth of the system under development.

Mog, Robert A.

Systems Engineering Design Via Experimental Operation Research: Complex Organizational Metric for Programmatic Risk Environments (COMPRE)

Unique and innovative graph theory, neural network, organizational modeling, and genetic algorithms are applied to the design and evolution of programmatic and organizational architectures. Graph theory representations of programs and organizations increase modeling capabilities and flexibility, while illuminating preferable programmatic/organizational design features. Treating programs and organizations as neural networks results in better system synthesis, and more robust data modeling. Organizational modeling using covariance structures enhances the determination of organizational risk factors. Genetic algorithms improve programmatic evolution characteristics, while shedding light on rulebase requirements for achieving specified technological readiness levels, given budget and schedule resources. This program of research improves the robustness and verifiability of systems synthesis tools, including the Complex Organizational Metric for Programmatic Risk Environments (COMPRE).

Mog, Robert A.

Systems Engineering Metrics: Organizational Complexity and Product Quality Modeling

Innovative organizational complexity and product quality models applicable to performance metrics for NASA-MSFC's Systems Analysis and Integration Laboratory (SAIL) missions and objectives are presented. An intensive research effort focuses on the synergistic combination of stochastic process modeling, nodal and spatial decomposition techniques, organizational and computational complexity, systems science and metrics, chaos, and proprietary statistical tools for accelerated risk assessment. This is followed by the development of a preliminary model, which is uniquely applicable and robust for quantitative purposes. Exercise of the preliminary model using a generic system hierarchy and the AXAF-I architectural hierarchy is provided. The Kendall test for positive dependence provides an initial verification and validation of the model. Finally, the research and development of the innovation is revisited, prior to peer review. This research and development effort results in near-term, measurable SAIL organizational and product quality methodologies, enhanced organizational risk assessment and evolutionary modeling results, and 91 improved statistical quantification of SAIL productivity interests.

Mog, Robert A.

Optimization techniques applied to passive measures for in-orbit spacecraft survivability

The purpose of this research is to provide Space Station Freedom protective structures design insight through the coupling of design/material requirements, hypervelocity impact phenomenology, meteoroid and space debris environment sensitivities, optimization techniques and operations research strategies, and mission scenarios. The goals of the research are: (1) to develop a Monte Carlo simulation tool which will provide top level insight for Space Station protective structures designers; (2) to develop advanced shielding concepts relevant to Space Station Freedom using unique multiple bumper approaches; and (3) to investigate projectile shape effects on protective structures design.

Mog, Robert A.

Optimization techniques applied to passive measures for in-orbit spacecraft survivability

Spacecraft designers have always been concerned about the effects of meteoroid impacts on mission safety. The engineering solution to this problem has generally been to erect a bumper or shield placed outboard from the spacecraft wall to disrupt/deflect the incoming projectiles. Spacecraft designers have a number of tools at their disposal to aid in the design process. These include hypervelocity impact testing, analytic impact predictors, and hydrodynamic codes. Analytic impact predictors generally provide the best quick-look estimate of design tradeoffs. The most complete way to determine the characteristics of an analytic impact predictor is through optimization of the protective structures design problem formulated with the predictor of interest. Space Station Freedom protective structures design insight is provided through the coupling of design/material requirements, hypervelocity impact phenomenology, meteoroid and space debris environment sensitivities, optimization techniques and operations research strategies, and mission scenarios. Major results are presented.

Mog, Robert A.

Geometric programming design of spacecraft protective structures to defeat earth-orbital space debris

A unique methodology providing global optimization of spacecraft protective structures is presented. The Geometric Programming optimization technique, which has a long history of application to structural design problems, is employed to minimize spacecraft weight of protective structural systems exposed to meteoroid and space debris hypervelocity impacts. The space debris and meteoroid environment are defined followed by the formulation of the general weight objective function. The Wilkinson, Burch, and Nysmith hypervelocity impact predictor models are then used in example cases to display Geometric Programming capabilities. Results show that global nonlinear design optimization can be performed for hypervelocity impact models that follow the Geometric Programming form.

Mog, Robert A.

Spacecraft protective structures design optimization

The optimization of spacecraft protective structures design to defeat hypervelocity impacts of meteoroids and space debris is presented. A space debris environment model is incorporated into an overall optimization methodology employing engineering models developed to predict protective structures design requirements for hypervelocity impact loads. Several nonlinear optimization techniques are used to generate design parametrics based on environment, mission, and configuration variables for the Space Station Core Module Configuration. Results indicate that careful consideration of the spacecraft structural configuration and materials can partially offset the design consequences of dramatic increases in the orbital space debris environment. Furthermore, the use of nonlinear optimization techniques coupled with hypervelocity impact engineering models can provide significant design tradeoff insight through the use of parametric analyses.

Mog, Robert A.

Optimization techniques applied to passive measures for in-orbit spacecraft survivability

Optimization techniques applied to passive measures for in-orbit spacecraft survivability, is a six-month study, designed to evaluate the effectiveness of the geometric programming (GP) optimization technique in determining the optimal design of a meteoroid and space debris protection system for the Space Station Core Module configuration. Geometric Programming was found to be superior to other methods in that it provided maximum protection from impact problems at the lowest weight and cost.

Mog, Robert A.