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Monier, Erwan

Publications and source records attributed to Monier, Erwan.

2 records
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DOE OSTI2024

MultiSector Dynamics: 2023 Inaugural Workshop Report

Preface The MultiSector Dynamics (MSD) Community of Practice (CoP) hosted an inaugural workshop on October 3-5, 2023 at the University of California, Davis, to bring together members of the MSD community of practice to advance understanding of the co-evolution of human and natural systems, and to build the next generation of tools that bridge sectors, scales, and systems to realize a more resilient and equitable future. The theme of the workshop was "Advancing Complex Adaptive Human-Earth Systems Science in a World of Interconnected Risks". This document outlines the motivation for the workshop, its goals and objectives, the application process, the agenda, overviews of the training sessions offered to the workshop participants and a summary of each breakout session. The MSD workshop report further discusses the feedback from workshop participants and presents some reflections and next steps. The MSD Workshop organizers thank the DOE Office of Science, Earth and Environmental System Modeling, MultiSector Dynamics program area for financial support of its activities through the Integrated Multisector Multiscale Modeling (IM3) project. For more information related to the broader DOE MultiSector Dynamics Program please see https://climatemodeling.science.energy.gov/program-area/multisector-dynamics. D.L.M. and C.M.B. acknowledge support from the Laboratory Directed Research and Development Program of Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), managed by UT-Battelle, LLC, for the US Department of Energy (DOE). Disclaimer This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States Government. Neither theUnited States Government nor any agency thereof, nor Battelle Memorial Institute, nor any of their employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, complete- ness, or usefulness of any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial products, process, or service by trade name,trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States Government or any agency thereof, or Battelle Memorial Institute. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States Government or any agency thereof. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory operated by Battelle for the United States Department of Energy Available from:Office of Scientific and Technical Information http://www.OSTI.gov multisectordynamics.org This work is made available under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution- NonCommercial 4.0 International (CC BY-NC 4.0) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4 Suggested citation: Monier, E., Reed, P.M., Vernon, C.R., Hadjimichael, A., Brelsford, C.M., Burleyson, C.B., Dyreson, A.R., Fletcher, S.M., Giang, A., Gupta, R.S., Jackson, N.D., Jones, A.D., Lamontagne, J.R., McCollum, D.L., Morris, J.F., Moss, R.H., Peng, W., Saari, R.K., Srikrishnan, V., Szinai, J.K., Yoon, J. (2024) MultiSector Dynamics: 2023 Inaugural Workshop Report. MSD-LIVE Data Repository. doi:10.57931/2371710.

Monier, Erwan↗
DOE OSTI2024

Projecting Changes in the Frequency and Magnitude of Ozone Pollution Events Under Uncertain Climate Sensitivity

Abstract Climate change is projected to worsen ozone pollution over many populated regions, with larger impacts at higher concentrations. More intense and frequent ozone episodes risk setbacks to human health and environmental policy achievements. However, assessing these changes is complicated by uncertain climate sensitivity, closely related to climate model response, and internal variability in simulations projecting climate's influence on air quality. Here, leveraging a global modeling framework that one‐way couples a human activity model, an Earth system model of intermediate complexity, and an atmospheric chemistry model, we investigate the role of climate sensitivity in climate‐induced changes to high ozone pollution episodes in the United States using multiple greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, representations of climate sensitivity, and initial condition members. We bias correct and evaluate historical model simulations, identifying modeled and observed O 3 episodes using extreme value theory, and extend the approach to projections of mid‐ and end‐century climate impacts. Results show that the influence of climate sensitivity can be as significant as that of greenhouse gas emissions scenario absent precursor emissions changes. Climate change is projected to increase the magnitude of the highest annually occurring O 3 concentrations by over 2.3 ppb on average across the U.S. at mid‐century under a high climate sensitivity and moderate emissions scenario, but the increase is limited to less than 0.3 ppb under lower climate sensitivity. Further, we show that areas in the U.S. currently meeting air quality standards risk being pushed into non‐compliance due to a climate‐induced increase in frequency of high ozone days.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗