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Montzka, Stephen A.

Publications and source records attributed to Montzka, Stephen A..

At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying Northern High Latitude Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) Using Carbonyl Sulfide (OCS)

The northern high latitude (NHL, 40°N to 90°N) is where the second peak region of gross primary productivity (GPP) other than the tropics. The summer NHL GPP is about 80% of the tropical peak, but both regions are still highly uncertain. Carbonyl sulfide (OCS) provides an important proxy for photosynthetic carbon uptake. Here we optimize the OCS plant uptake fluxes across the NHL by fitting atmospheric concentration simulation with the GEOS-CHEM global transport model to the aircraft profiles acquired over Alaska during NASA's Carbon in Arctic Reservoirs Vulnerability Experiment (2012–2015). We use the empirical biome-specific linear relationship between OCS plant uptake flux and GPP to derive the six plant uptake OCS fluxes from different GPP data. Such GPP-based fluxes are used to drive the concentration simulations. We evaluate the simulations against the independent observations at two ground sites of Alaska. The optimized OCS fluxes suggest the NHL plant uptake OCS flux of -247 Gg S year -1 , about 25% stronger than the ensemble mean of the six GPP-based OCS fluxes. GPP-based OCS fluxes systematically underestimate the peak growing season across the NHL, while a subset of models predict early start of season in Alaska, consistent with previous studies of net ecosystem exchange. The OCS optimized GPP of 34 PgC yr -1 for NHL is also about 25% more than the ensembles mean from six GPP data. Further work is needed to fully understand the environmental and biotic drivers and quantify their rate of photosynthetic carbon uptake in Arctic ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Exploring the Potential of Using Carbonyl Sulfide to Track the Urban Biosphere Signal

Abstract Cities are implementing additional urban green as a means to capture CO 2 and become more carbon neutral. However, cities are complex systems where anthropogenic and natural components of the CO 2 budget interact with each other, and the ability to measure the efficacy of such measures is still not properly addressed. There is still a high degree of uncertainty in determining the contribution of the vegetation signal, which furthermore confounds the use of CO 2 mole fraction measurements for inferring anthropogenic emissions of CO 2 . Carbonyl sulfide (OCS) is a tracer of photosynthesis which can aid in constraining the biosphere signal. This study explores the potential of using OCS to track the urban biosphere signal. We used the Sulfur Transport and dEposition Model (STEM) to simulate the OCS concentrations and the Carnegie Ames Stanford Approach ecosystem model to simulate global CO 2 fluxes over the Bay Area of San Francisco during March 2015. Two observation towers provided measurements of OCS and CO 2 : The Sutro tower in San Francisco (upwind from the area of study providing background observations), and a tower located at Sandia National Laboratories in Livermore (downwind of the highly urbanized San Francisco region). Our results show that the STEM model works better under stable marine influence, and that the boundary layer height and entrainment are driving the diurnal changes in OCS and CO 2 at the downwind Sandia site. However, the STEM model needs to better represent the transport and boundary layer variability, and improved estimates of gross primary productivity for characterizing the urban biosphere signal are needed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Observations of greenhouse gases as climate indicators

Humans have significantly altered the energy balance of the Earth’s climate system mainly not only by extracting and burning fossil fuels but also by altering the biosphere and using halocarbons. The 3rd US National Climate Assessment pointed to a need for a system of indicators of climate and global change based on long-term data that could be used to support assessments and this led to the development of the National Climate Indicators System (NCIS). Here we identify a representative set of key atmospheric indicators of changes in atmospheric radiative forcing due to greenhouse gases (GHGs), and we evaluate atmospheric composition measurements, including non-CO<:sub>2 GHGs for use as climate change indicators in support of the US National Climate Assessment. GHG abundances and their changes over time can provide valuable information on the success of climate mitigation policies, as well as insights into possible carbon-climate feedback processes that may ultimately affect the success of those policies. To ensure that reliable information for assessing GHG emission changes can be provided on policy-relevant scales, expanded observational efforts are needed. Furthermore, the ability to detect trends resulting from changing emissions requires a commitment to supporting long-term observations. Long-term measurements of greenhouse gases, aerosols, and clouds and related climate indicators used with a dimming/brightening index could provide a foundation for quantifying forcing and its attribution and reducing error in existing indicators that do not account for complicated cloud processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

The shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions to 2500

Anthropogenic increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are the main driver of current and future climate change. The integrated assessment community has quantified anthropogenic emissions for the shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) scenarios, each of which represents a different future socio-economic projection and political environment. Here, we provide the greenhouse gas concentrations for these SSP scenarios using the reduced-complexity climate–carbon-cycle model MAGICC7.0. We extend historical, observationally based concentration data with SSP concentration projections from 2015 to 2500 for 43 greenhouse gases with monthly and latitudinal resolution. CO 2 concentrations by 2100 range from 393 to 1135 ppm for the lowest (SSP1-1.9) and highest (SSP5-8.5) emission scenarios, respectively. We also provide the concentration extensions beyond 2100 based on assumptions regarding the trajectories of fossil fuels and land use change emissions, net negative emissions, and the fraction of non-CO 2 emissions. By 2150, CO 2 concentrations in the lowest emission scenario are approximately 350 ppm and approximately plateau at that level until 2500, whereas the highest fossil-fuel-driven scenario projects CO 2 concentrations of 1737 ppm and reaches concentrations beyond 2000 ppm by 2250. We estimate that the share of CO 2 in the total radiative forcing contribution of all considered 43 long-lived greenhouse gases increases from 66% for the present day to roughly 68% to 85% by the time of maximum forcing in the 21st century. For this estimation, we updated simple radiative forcing parameterizations that reflect the Oslo Line-By-Line model results. In comparison to the representative concentration pathways (RCPs), the five main SSPs (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) are more evenly spaced and extend to lower 2100 radiative forcing and temperatures. Performing two pairs of six-member historical ensembles with CESM1.2.2, we estimate the effect on surface air temperatures of applying latitudinally and seasonally resolved GHG concentrations. We find that the ensemble differences in the March–April–May (MAM) season provide a regional warming in higher northern latitudes of up to 0.4 K over the historical period, latitudinally averaged of about 0.1 K, which we estimate to be comparable to the upper bound (~5 % level) of natural variability. In comparison to the comparatively straight line of the last 2000 years, the greenhouse gas concentrations since the onset of the industrial period and this studies' projections over the next 100 to 500 years unequivocally depict a “hockey-stick” upwards shape. The SSP concentration time series derived in this study provide a harmonized set of input assumptions for long-term climate science analysis; they also provide an indication of the wide set of futures that societal developments and policy implementations can lead to – ranging from multiple degrees of future warming on the one side to approximately 1.5°C warming on the other.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Global Climate

The 2019 global lower tropospheric temperature (LTT), which encompasses the atmosphere from the surface to ~10 km, ranked second warmest in seven datasets and first or third in the remaining two (Fig. 2.7). These records extend back to 1958 using radiosonde (balloon-borne instrumentation) data and one reanalysis dataset (JRA55), which demonstrate reasonable agreement with the 40+ year satellite record (since late 1978) and two other reanalysis datasets (since 1979 and 1980, ERA5 and MERRA2, respectively). Aweak El Niño contributed to increased global temperatures as 2019 values were +0.44° to +0.68°C higher than the 1981–2010 average (depending on the dataset), being just slightly cooler (~0.07°C on average) than the record warm year of 2016. At least fourof the five globally complete datasets (ERA5, MERRA2, JRA55, RSS, UAH) recorded each of the four months—June, September, November, and December—as experiencing their warmest monthly global LTT.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Enhanced North American carbon uptake associated with El Niño

Long-term atmospheric CO 2 mole fraction and δ 13 CO 2 observations over North America document persistent responses to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. We estimate these responses corresponded to 0.61 (0.45 to 0.79) PgC year –1 more North American carbon uptake during El Niño than during La Niña between 2007 and 2015, partially offsetting increases of net tropical biosphere-to-atmosphere carbon flux around El Niño. Anomalies in derived North American net ecosystem exchange (NEE) display strong but opposite correlations with surface air temperature between seasons, while their correlation with water availability was more constant throughout the year, such that water availability is the dominant control on annual NEE variability over North America. These results suggest that increased water availability and favorable temperature conditions (warmer spring and cooler summer) caused enhanced carbon uptake over North America near and during El Niño.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Reviews and syntheses: Carbonyl sulfide as a multi-scale tracer for carbon and water cycles

Abstract. For the past decade, observations of carbonyl sulfide (OCS or COS)have been investigated as a proxy for carbon uptake by plants. OCS is destroyed by enzymes that interact with CO 2 during photosynthesis, namely carbonic anhydrase (CA) and RuBisCO, where CA is the more important one. The majority of sources of OCS to the atmosphere are geographically separated from this large plant sink,whereas the sources and sinks of CO 2 are co-located in ecosystems. The draw down of OCS can therefore be related to the uptake of CO 2 without the added complication of co-located emissions comparable in magnitude. Here we review the state of our understanding of the global OCS cycle and its applications to ecosystem carbon cycle science. OCS uptake is correlated well toplant carbon uptake, especially at the regional scale. OCS can be used in conjunction with other independent measures of ecosystem function, like solar-induced fluorescence and carbon and water isotope studies. More work needs to be done to generate global coverage for OCS observations and to link this powerful atmospheric tracer to systems where fundamental questions concerning the carbon and water cycle remain.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2017

Deriving Global OH Abundance and Atmospheric Lifetimes for Long-Lived Gases: A Search for CH3CCl3 Alternatives

An accurate estimate of global hydroxyl radical (OH) abundance is important for projections of air quality, climate, and stratospheric ozone recovery. As the atmospheric mixing ratios of methyl chloroform (CH3CCl3) (MCF), the commonly used OH reference gas, approaches zero, it is important to find alternative approaches to infer atmospheric OH abundance and variability. The lack of global bottom-up emission inventories is the primary obstacle in choosing a MCF alternative. We illustrate that global emissions of long-lived trace gases can be inferred from their observed mixing ratio differences between the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and Southern Hemisphere (SH), given realistic estimates of their NH-SH exchange time, the emission partitioning between the two hemispheres, and the NH versus SH OH abundance ratio. Using the observed long-term trend and emissions derived from the measured hemispheric gradient, the combination of HFC-32 (CH2F2), HFC-134a (CH2FCF3, HFC-152a (CH3CHF2), and HCFC-22 (CHClF2), instead of a single gas, will be useful as a MCF alternative to infer global and hemispheric OH abundance and trace gas lifetimes. The primary assumption on which this multispecies approach relies is that the OH lifetimes can be estimated by scaling the thermal reaction rates of a reference gas at 272 K on global and hemispheric scales. Thus, the derived hemispheric and global OH estimates are forced to reconcile the observed trends and gradient for all four compounds simultaneously. However, currently, observations of these gases from the surface networks do not provide more accurate OH abundance estimate than that from MCF.

Lifetime↗
DOE OSTI2017

Considerable contribution of the Montreal Protocol to declining greenhouse gas emissions from the United States

Ozone depleting substances (ODSs) controlled by the Montreal Protocol are potent greenhouse gases (GHGs), as are their substitutes, the hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). Here we provide for the first time a comprehensive estimate of U.S. emissions of ODSs and HFCs based on precise measurements in discrete air samples from across North America and in the remote atmosphere. Derived emissions show spatial and seasonal variations qualitatively consistent with known uses and largely confirm U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) national emissions inventories for most gases. The measurement-based results further indicate a substantial decline of ODS emissions from 2008 to 2014, equivalent to ~50% of the CO 2 -equivalent decline in combined emissions of CO 2 and all other long-lived GHGs inventoried by the EPA for the same period. Total estimated CO 2 -equivalent emissions of HFCs were comparable to the sum of ODS emissions in 2014, but can be expected to decline in the future in response to recent policy measures.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Peak growing season gross uptake of carbon in North America is largest in the Midwest USA

Gross primary production (GPP) is a first-order uncertainty in climate predictions. Large-scale CO2 observations can provide information about the carbon cycle, but are not directly useful for GPP. Recently carbonyl sulfide (COS or OCS) has been proposed as a potential tracer for regional and global GPP. Here we present the first regional assessment of GPP using COS. We focus on the North American growing season—a global hotspot for COS air-monitoring and GPP uncertainty. Regional variability in simulated vertical COS concentration gradients was driven by variation in GPP rather than other modelled COS sources and sinks. Consequently we are able to show that growing season GPP in the Midwest USA significantly exceeds that of any other region of North America. These results are inconsistent with some ecosystem models, but are supportive of new ecosystem models from CMIP6. This approach provides valuable insight into the accuracy of various ecosystem land models.

Hilton, Timothy W.↗
DOE OSTI2017

Estimating methane emissions from biological and fossil‐fuel sources in the San Francisco Bay Area

Abstract We present the first sector‐specific analysis of methane (CH 4 ) emissions from the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA) using CH 4 and volatile organic compound (VOC) measurements from six sites during September – December 2015. We apply a hierarchical Bayesian inversion to separate the biological from fossil‐fuel (natural gas and petroleum) sources using the measurements of CH 4 and selected VOCs, a source‐specific 1 km CH 4 emission model, and an atmospheric transport model. We estimate that SFBA CH 4 emissions are 166–289 Gg CH 4 /yr (at 95% confidence), 1.3–2.3 times higher than a recent inventory with much of the underestimation from landfill. Including the VOCs, 82 ± 27% of total posterior median CH 4 emissions are biological and 17 ± 3% fossil fuel, where landfill and natural gas dominate the biological and fossil‐fuel CH 4 of prior emissions, respectively.

Jeong, Seongeun↗
DOE OSTI2016

Model sensitivity studies of the decrease in atmospheric carbon tetrachloride

Carbon tetrachloride (CCl 4 ) is an ozone-depleting substance, which is controlled by the Montreal Protocol and for which the atmospheric abundance is decreasing. But, the current observed rate of this decrease is known to be slower than expected based on reported CCl 4 emissions and its estimated overall atmospheric lifetime. Here we use a three-dimensional (3-D) chemical transport model to investigate the impact on its predicted decay of uncertainties in the rates at which CCl 4 is removed from the atmosphere by photolysis, by ocean uptake and by degradation in soils. The largest sink is atmospheric photolysis (74 % of total), but a reported 10 % uncertainty in its combined photolysis cross section and quantum yield has only a modest impact on the modelled rate of CCl 4 decay. This is partly due to the limiting effect of the rate of transport of CCl 4 from the main tropospheric reservoir to the stratosphere, where photolytic loss occurs. The model suggests large interannual variability in the magnitude of this stratospheric photolysis sink caused by variations in transport. The impact of uncertainty in the minor soil sink (9 % of total) is also relatively small. In contrast, the model shows that uncertainty in ocean loss (17 % of total) has the largest impact on modelled CCl 4 decay due to its sizeable contribution to CCl 4 loss and large lifetime uncertainty range (147 to 241 years). Furthermore, with an assumed CCl 4 emission rate of 39 Gg year -1 , the reference simulation with the best estimate of loss processes still underestimates the observed CCl 4 (overestimates the decay) over the past 2 decades but to a smaller extent than previous studies. Changes to the rate of CCl 4 loss processes, in line with known uncertainties, could bring the model into agreement with in situ surface and remote-sensing measurements, as could an increase in emissions to around 47 Gg year -1 . Further progress in constraining the CCl 4 budget is partly limited by systematic biases between observational datasets. For example, surface observations from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) network are larger than from the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) network but have shown a steeper decreasing trend over the past 2 decades. The observed differences imply a difference in emissions which is significant relative to uncertainties in the magnitudes of the CCl 4 sinks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2016

Model Sensitivity Studies of the Decrease in Atmospheric Carbon Tetrachloride

Carbon tetrachloride (CCl4) is an ozone-depleting substance, which is controlled by the Montreal Protocol and for which the atmospheric abundance is decreasing. However, the current observed rate of this decrease is known to be slower than expected based on reported CCl4 emissions and its estimated overall atmospheric lifetime. Here we use a three-dimensional (3-D) chemical transport model to investigate the impact on its predicted decay of uncertainties in the rates at which CCl4 is removed from the atmosphere by photolysis, by ocean uptake and by degradation in soils. The largest sink is atmospheric photolysis (74% of total), but a reported 10% uncertainty in its combined photolysis cross section and quantum yield has only a modest impact on the modelled rate of CCl4 decay. This is partly due to the limiting effect of the rate of transport of CCl4 from the main tropospheric reservoir to the stratosphere, where photolytic loss occurs. The model suggests large interannual variability in the magnitude of this stratospheric photolysis sink caused by variations in transport. The impact of uncertainty in the minor soil sink (9%of total) is also relatively small. In contrast, the model shows that uncertainty in ocean loss (17%of total) has the largest impact on modelled CCl4 decay due to its sizeable contribution to CCl4 loss and large lifetime uncertainty range (147 to 241 years). With an assumed CCl4 emission rate of 39 Gg year(exp -1), the reference simulation with the best estimate of loss processes still underestimates the observed CCl4 (overestimates the decay) over the past 2 decades but to a smaller extent than previous studies. Changes to the rate of CCl4 loss processes, in line with known uncertainties, could bring the model into agreement with in situ surface and remote-sensing measurements, as could an increase in emissions to around 47 Gg year(exp -1). Further progress in constraining the CCl4 budget is partly limited by systematic biases between observational datasets. For example, surface observations from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) network are larger than from the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) network but have shown a steeper decreasing trend over the past 2 decades. These differences imply a difference in emissions which is significant relative to uncertainties in the magnitudes of the CCl4 sinks.

Carbon Trechloride↗
NASA NTRS2016

SPARC Report on the Mystery of Carbon Tetrachloride

The Montreal Protocol (MP) controls the production and consumption of carbon tetrachloride (CCl4 or CTC) and other ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) for emissive uses. CCl4 is a major ODS, accounting for about 12% of the globally averaged inorganic chlorine and bromine in the stratosphere, compared to 14% for CFC-12 in 2012. In spite of the MP controls, there are large ongoing emissions of CCl4 into the atmosphere. Estimates of emissions from various techniques ought to yield similar numbers. However, the recent WMO/UNEP Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion estimated a 2007-2012 CCl4 bottom-up emission of 1-4 Gg/year (1-4 kilotonnes/year), based on country-by-country reports to UNEP, and a global top-down emissions estimate of 57 Gg/ year, based on atmospheric measurements. This 54 Gg/year difference has not been explained. In order to assess the current knowledge on global CCl4 sources and sinks, stakeholders from industrial, governmental, and the scientific communities came together at the “Solving the Mystery of Carbon Tetrachloride” workshop, which was held from 4-6 October 2015 at Empa in Dübendorf, Switzerland. During this workshop, several new findings were brought forward by the participants on CCl4 emissions and related science.

Ahmadzai, Husamuddin↗
DOE OSTI2016

Continued emissions of carbon tetrachloride from the United States nearly two decades after its phaseout for dispersive uses

National-scale emissions of carbon tetrachloride (CCl 4 ) are derived based on inverse modeling of atmospheric observations at multiple sites across the United States from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's flask air sampling network. We estimate an annual average US emission of 4.0 (2.0-6.5) Gg CCl 4 y -1 during 2008- 2012, which is almost two orders of magnitude larger than reported to the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Toxics Release Inventory (TRI) (mean of 0.06 Gg y -1 ) but only 8% (3-22%) of global CCl 4 emissions during these years. Emissive regions identified by the observations and consistently shown in all inversion results include the Gulf Coast states, the San Francisco Bay Area in California, and the Denver area in Colorado. Both the observation-derived emissions and the US EPA TRI identified Texas and Louisiana as the largest contributors, accounting for one- to two-thirds of the US national total CCl 4 emission during 2008-2012. These results are qualitatively consistent with multiple aircraft and ship surveys conducted in earlier years, which suggested significant enhancements in atmospheric mole fractions measured near Houston and surrounding areas. Furthermore, the emission distribution derived for CCl 4 throughout the United States is more consistent with the distribution of industrial activities included in the TRI than with the distribution of other potential CCl 4 sources such as uncapped landfills or activities related to population density (e.g., use of chlorine-containing bleach).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Seasonal fluxes of carbonyl sulfide in a midlatitude forest

Significance The flux of carbonyl sulfide (OCS) provides a quantitative, independent measure of biospheric activity, especially stomatal conductance and carbon uptake, at the ecosystem scale. We describe the factors controlling the hourly, daily, and seasonal fluxes of OCS based on 1 year of observations in a forest ecosystem. Vegetation dominated uptake of OCS, with daytime fluxes accounting for 72% of the total uptake for the year. Nighttime fluxes had contributions from both incompletely closed stomata and soils. Net OCS emission was observed at high temperature in summer. Diurnal and seasonal variations in OCS flux show variable stoichiometry relative to photosynthetic uptake of CO 2 . An effective model framework is shown, using an explicit representation of ecosystem processing of OCS.

Commane, Róisín↗