Engineering topics

Moore, R. L.

Publications and source records attributed to Moore, R. L..

At least 37 records · Page 2

NASA NTRS2006

Probing the Magnetic Causes of CMEs: Free Magnetic Energy More Important Than Either Size Or Twist

To probe the magnetic causes of CMEs, we have examined three types of magnetic measures: size, twist and total nonpotentiality (or total free magnetic energy) of an active region. Total nonpotentiality is roughly the product of size times twist. For predominately bipolar active regions, we have found that total nonpotentiality measures have the strongest correlation with future CME productivity (approx. 75% prediction success rate), while size and twist measures each have a weaker correlation with future CME productivity (approx. 65% prediction success rate) (Falconer, Moore, & Gary, ApJ, 644, 2006). For multipolar active regions, we find that the CME-prediction success rates for total nonpotentiality and size are about the same as for bipolar active regions. We also find that the size measure correlation with CME productivity is nearly all due to the contribution of size to total nonpotentiality. We have a total nonpotentiality measure that can be obtained from a line-of-sight magnetogram of the active region and that is as strongly correlated with CME productivity as are any of our total-nonpotentiality measures from deprojected vector magnetograms. We plan to further expand our sample by using MDI magnetograms of each active region in our sample to determine its total nonpotentiality and size on each day that the active region was within 30 deg. of disk center. The resulting increase in sample size will improve our statistics and allow us to investigate whether the nonpotentiality threshold for CME production is nearly the same or significantly different for multipolar regions than for bipolar regions. In addition, we will investigate the time rates of change of size and total nonpotentiality as additional causes of CME productivity.

Falconer, D. A.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Magnetic Causes of Solar Coronal Mass Ejections: Dominance of the Free Magnetic Energy Over the Magnetic Twist Alone

We examine the magnetic causes of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) by examining, along with the correlations of active-region magnetic measures with each other, the correlations of these measures with active-region CME productivity observed in time windows of a few days, either centered on or extending forward from the day of the magnetic measurement. The measures are from 36 vector magnetograms of bipolar active regions observed within -30" of disk center by the Marshal Space Flight Center (MSFC) vector magnetograph. From each magnetogram, we extract six whole-active-region measures twice, once from the original plane-of-the-sky magnetogram and again a h r deprojection of the magnetogram to disk center. Three of the measures are alternative measures of the total nonpotentiality of the active region, two are alternative measures of the overall twist in the active-region's magnetic field, and one is a measure of the magnetic size of the active region (the active region's magnetic flux content). From the deprojected magnetograms, we find evidence that (1) magnetic twist and magnetic size are separate but comparably strong causes of active-region CME Productivity, and (2) the total free magnetic energy in an active region's magnetic field is a stronger determinant of the active region's CME productivity than is the field's overall twist (or helicity) alone. From comparison of results from the non-deprojected magnetograms with corresponding results from the deprojected magnetograms, we find evidence that (for prediction of active-region CME productivity and for further studies of active-region magnetic size as a cause of CMEs), for active regions within approx.30deg of disk center, active-region total nonpotentiality and flux content can be adequately measured from line-of-sight magnetograms, such as from SOH0 MDI.

Falconer, D. A.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Using SOHO to Understand CME-Producing Quiet-Region Filament Eruptions

In recent years we have been studying solar eruptions in an attempt to determine their primary initiation mechanism. We have focused on events involving filaments, because motions of the filaments just prior to their violent eruption are indicative of changes in the entire magnetic field system involved in the eruption. When the pre-eruption filament resides in a quiet region, the motions leading up to eruption are slower than in similar eruptions in active regions due to the weaker magnetic field strength and correspondingly lower Alfven velocities. These early motions manifest themselves in a slow rise (a few km/s) of the filament, in some cases lasting several hours. After this the filament and associated magnetic structures erupt rapidly, accelerating to speeds of a few 10 kmh over a few minutes. Because of their slow evolution, quiet-region eruptions such as these can be effectively studied in EUV with SOHO/EIT, with its regular cadence of about 12 min. For several cases we have combined EIT images with SOHO/MDI magnetograms and data from other other instruments, and compared our observations with predictions from various eruption scenarios, in particular the "breakout" (Antiochos 1998), "tether cutting" (e.g., Moore et al. 2001), and MHD instability mechanisms. Here we present a representative example of a quiet-region eruption involving a filament ejection, that occurred on 2001 February 28 in a magnetically quadrupolar region and produced a halo CME in SOHO/LASCO images. In addition to EIT and MDI, we analyzed spectral data from SOHO/CDS and soft X-ray (SXR) images from Yohkoh/SXT. We found that flux emergence occurred near one end of the filament, and that both this emergence and resulting microflaring in SXRs and EUV were temporally and spatially closely related to the start of the filament's slow rise. Intensity changes (dimmings and brightenings) in the EIT and SXT images indicate that fields far removed from the erupting core were involved in the eruption, and that breakout-type reconnection did occur. Our observations allow us to investigate whether breakout was the trigger of the eruption, or merely a consequence of a more fundamental eruption process such as tether cutting or MHD instability occurring in a complex magnetic environment.

Sterling, A. C.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Magnetic Causes of Solar Coronal Mass Ejections: Dominance of the Free Magnetic Energy over Either the Magnetic Twist or Size Alone

We report further results from our ongoing assessment of magnetogram-based measures of active-region nonpotentiality and size as predictors of coronal mass ejections (CMEs). We have devised improved generalized measures of active-region nonpotentiality that apply to active regions of any degree of magnetic complexity, rather than being limited to bipolar active regions as our initial measures were. From a set of approx.50 active-regions, we have found that measures of total nonpotentiality have a 75-80% success rate n predicting whether an active region will produce a CME in 2 days after the magnetogram. This makes measures of total nonpotentiality a better predictor than either active-region size, or active region twist (size-normalized nonpotentiality), which have a approx.65% success rates. We have also found that we can measure from the line-of-sight magnetograms an active region's total nonpotentiality and the size, which allows use to use MDI to evaluate these quantities for 4-5 consecutive days for each active region, and to investigate if there is some combination of size and total nonpotentiality that have a stronger predictive power than does total nonpotentiality. This work was funded by NASA through its LWS TR&T Program and its Solar and Heliospheric Physics SR&T Program, and by NSF through its Solar Terrestrial Research and SHINE programs.

Falconer, D. A.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Initiation of the Slow-Rise and Fast-Rise Phases of an Erupting Solar Filament by Localized Emerging Magnetic Field via Microflaring

EUV data from EIT show that a filament of 2001 February 28 underwent a slow-rise phase lasting about 6 hrs, before rapidly erupting in a fast-rise phase. Concurrent images in soft X-rays (SXRs) from Yohkoh/SXT show that a series of three microflares, prominent in SXT images but weak in EIT approx.195 Ang EUV images, occurred near one end of the filament. The first and last microflares occurred respectively in conjunction with the start of the slow-rise phase and the start of the fast-rise phase, and the second microflare corresponded to a kink in the filament trajectory. Beginning within 10 hours of the start of the slow rise, new magnetic flux emerged at the location of the microflaring. This localized new flux emergence and the resulting microflares, consistent with reconnection between the emerging field and the sheared sigmoid core magnetic field holding the filament, apparently caused the slow rise of this field and the transition to explosive eruption. For the first time in such detail, the observations show this direct action of localized emerging flux in the progressive destabilization of a sheared core field in the onset of a coronal mass ejection (CME). Similar processes may have occurred in other recently-studied events, NASA supported this work through NASA SR&T and SEC GI grants.

Sterling, A. C.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Forecasting Coronal Mass Ejections from Line-of-Sight Magnetograms

We show that the length of strong-gradient, strong-field main neutral line, L(sub SGM), which can be measured from line-of-sight magnetograms such as from SOHO/MDI, is both a measure of active-region nonpotentiality and a useful predictor of an active region's future CME productivity. To demonstrate that L(sub SGM) is a nonpotentiality measure, we show that it is strongly correlated with a direct measure of nonpotentiality. For an appropriate choice of a threshold value, an active region s measured LsGM can be used as a predictor of whether the active region will produce a CME within a few days after the magnetogram. For our set of 36 MSFC vector magnetograms of bipolar active regions, L(sub SGM) is found to have a success rate of 80% for prediction of CME productivity in the 0-2 day window. The development of L(sub SGM) as a method of measuring nonpotentiality for forecasting large, fast CMEs from present space based assets is of value to NASA's Space Exploration Initiative (manned missions to the Moon and Mars)

Falconer, D. A.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Flare Emission Onset in the Slow-Rise and Fast-Rise Phases of an Erupting Solar Filament Observed with TRACE

We observe the eruption of an active-region solar filament of 1998 July 11 using high time cadence and high spatial resolution EUV observations from the TRACE sareiii'ce, along with soft X-ray images from the soft X-ray telescope (SXT) on the Yohkoh satellite, hard X-ray fluxes from the BATSE instrument on the (CGRO) satellite and from the hard X-ray telescope (HXT) on Yohkoh, and ground-based magnetograms. We concentrate on the initiation of the eruption in an effort to understand the eruption mechanism. First the filament undergoes slow upward movement in a "slow rise" phase with an approximately constant velocity of approximately 15 km/s that lasts about 10-min, and then it erupts in a "fast-rise" phase, reaching a velocity of about 200 km/s in about 5-min, followed by a period of deceleration. EUV brightenings begin just before the start of the filament's slow rise, and remain immediately beneath the rising filament during the slow rise; initial soft X-ray brightenings occur at about the same time and location. Strong hard X-ray emission begins after the onset of the fast rise, and does not peak until the filament has traveled a substantial altitude (to a height about equal to the initial length of the erupting filament) beyond its initial location. Our observations are consistent with the slow-rise phase of the eruption resulting from the onset of "tether cutting" reconnection between magnetic fields beneath the filament, and the fast rise resulting from an explosive increase in the reconnection rate or by catastrophic destabilization of the overlying filament-carrying fields. About two days prior to the event new flux emerged near the location of the initial brightenings, and this recently- emerged flux could have been a catalyst for initiating the tether-cutting reconnection. With the exception of the initial slow rise, our findings qualitatively agree with the prediction for erupting-flux-rope height as a function of time in a model discussed by Chen & Shibata (2000) based on reconnection between emerging flux and a flux rope.

Sterling, A. C.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Shape and Reconnection of the Exploding Magnetic Field in the Onset of CMEs

From chromospheric and coronal images and line-of-sight and vector magnetograms of magnetic regions that produce CMEs, and from chromospheric and coronal movies of the onsets of CME eruptions, it appears that the magnetic field that explodes to drive the CME is initially the strongly sheared core of a magnetic arcade encasing a polarity dividing line in the magnetic flux. Before or during the onset of the explosion, the sheared core field becomes a flux rope, often carrying chromospheric material within it. For the erupting flux rope to drive the explosion, that is, for its magnetic energy content to decrease in the explosion, the flux rope's cross-sectional area must increase faster than its length. For instance, for isotropic expansion, the area increases as the square of the length, and the magnetic energy content of the flux rope decreases as the inverse of the length. The instability that initiates the eruption of the flux rope might be an ideal MHD kink instability, or might involve runaway tether-cutting reconnection. The reconnection begins below the flux rope (internal to the arcade) when the overall field configuration of the region is effectively that of a single bipole. When the flux rope resides in a multi- bipolar configuration having a magnetic null above the flux rope, the runaway tether- cutting reconnection might begin either below the flux rope or at the null above (external to) the arcade. We present examples of observed CME onsets that illustrate the above alternatives. In each example, reconnection below the flux rope begins early in the eruption. This indicates that internal tether cutting reconnection (classic tether-cutting reconnection) is important in unleashing the CME explosion in all cases, including those in which the explosion may be triggered by MHD kinking or by external reconnection (classic breakout reconnection).

Moore, R. L.↗

NASA NTRS2005

A New Variety of CMEs: Streamer Puffs from Compact Ejective Flares

We present SOHO EIT, UVCS and LASCO observations of recurrent (6 --- 8 events per day) narrow (angular widths of about 3 --- 10 degrees) Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) which occurred over 2002 November 26--29. The active region where the ejections originate is near the base of a coronal streamer that appears to be unperturbed by the events and keeps stable in time; hence we interpret the observed events as a new class of recursive narrow CMEs that we call "streamer puffs." EIT 304 angstrom (He II) images indicate that the puffs result from compact ejective flares embedded in the streamer, with the ejections from the flares having velocities 100 --- 200 kilometers per second. Most ejections are closely correlated with coronal "jets" seen at 1.7 solar radii in the UVCS data, and a subset of these ejections and jets correspond to streamer puffs observed in LASCO coronagraph images. There are, however, more compact flares and jets than streamer puffs during the observation period, indicating that only a subset of the flare-associated ejections are energetic enough to escape into the heliosphere.

Sterling, Alphonse C.↗

NASA NTRS2005

MTRAP: The Magnetic Transition Region Probe

The Magnetic Transition Region Probe is a space telescope designed to measure the magnetic field at several heights and temperatures in the solar atmosphere, providing observations spanning the chromospheric region where the field is expected to become force free. The primary goal is to provide an early warning system (hours to days) for solar energetic particle events that pose a serious hazard to astronauts in deep space and to understand the source regions of these particles. The required magnetic field data consist of simultaneous circular and linear polarization measurements in several spectral lines over the wavelength range from 150 to 855 nm. Because the observations are photon limited an optical telescope with a large (>18sq m) collecting area is required. To keep the heat dissipation problem manageable we have chosen to implement MTRAP with six separate Gregorian telescopes, each with approx. 3 sq m collecting area, that are brought to a common focus. The large field of view (5 x 5 arcmin(sup 2)) and angular resolution (0.025 arcsec pixels) require large detector arrays and, because of the requirements on signal to noise (10(exp 3)), pixels with large full well depths to reduce the readout time and improve the temporal resolution. The optical and engineering considerations that have gone into the development of a concept that meets MTRAP's requirements are described.

Davis, J. M.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Eruption of a Multiple-Turn Helical Magnetic Flux Tube in a Large Flare: Evidence for External and Internal Reconnection that Fits the Breakout Model of Solar Magnetic Eruptions

We present observations and an interpretation of a unique multiple-turn spiral flux tube eruption from active region 10030 on 2002 July 15. The TRACE C IV observations clearly show a flux tube that is helical and erupting from within a sheared magnetic field. These observations are interpreted in the context of the breakout model for magnetic field explosions. The initiation of the helix eruption. as determined by a linear backward extrapolation, starts 25 s after the peak of the flare's strongest impulsive spike of microwave gyrosynchrotron radiation early in the flare s explosive phase, implying that the sheared core field is not the site of the initial reconnection. Within the quadrupolar configuration of the active region, the external and internal reconnection sites are identified in each of two consecutive eruptive flares that produce a double coronal mass ejection (CME). The first external breakout reconnection apparently releases an underlying sheared core field and allows it to erupt, leading to internal reconnection in the wake of the erupting helix. This internal reconnection releases the helix and heats the two-ribbon flare. These events lead to the first CME and are followed by a second breakout that initiates a second and larger halo CME. The strong magnetic shear in the region is compatible with the observed rapid proper motion and evolution of the active region. The multiple-turn helix originates from above a sheared-field magnetic inversion line within a filament channel. and starts to erupt only after fast breakout reconnection has started. These observations are counter to the standard flare model and support the breakout model for eruptive flare initiation.

Gary, G. Allen↗

NASA NTRS2004

The Magnetic Structure of H-alpha Macrospicules in Solar Coronal Holes

Measurements by Ulysses in the high-speed polar solar wind have shown the wind to carry some fine-scale structures in which the magnetic field reverses direction by having a switchback fold in it. The lateral span of these magnetic switchbacks, translated back to the Sun, is of the scale of the lanes and cells of the magnetic network in which the open magnetic field of the polar coronal hole and polar solar wind are rooted. This suggests that the magnetic switchbacks might be formed from network-scale magnetic loops that erupt into the corona and then undergo reconnection with the open field. This possibility motivated us to undertake the study reported here of the structure of Ha macrospicules observed at the limb in polar coronal holes, to determine whether a significant fraction of these eruptions appear to be erupting loops. From a search of the polar coronal holes in 6 days of image- processed full-disk Ha movies from Big Bear Solar Observatory, we found a total of 35 macrospicules. Nearly all of these (32) were of one or the other of two different forms: 15 were in the form of an erupting loop, and 17 were in the form of a single column spiked jet. The erupting-loop macrospicules are appropriate for producing the magnetic switchbacks in the polar wind. The spiked-jet macrospicules show the appropriate structure and evolution to be driven by reconnection between network-scale closed field (a network bipole) and the open field rooted against the closed field. This evidence for reconnection in a large fraction of our macrospicules (1) suggests that many spicules may be generated by similar but smaller reconnection events and (2) supports the view that coronal heating and solar wind acceleration in coronal holes and in quiet regions are driven by explosive reconnection events in the magnetic network.

Yamauchi, Y.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Prediction of Active-Region CME Productivity from Magnetograms

We report results of an expanded evaluation of whole-active-region magnetic measures as predictors of active-region coronal mass ejection (CME) productivity. Previously, in a sample of 17 vector magnetograms of 12 bipolar active regions observed by the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) vector magnetograph, from each magnetogram we extracted a measure of the size of the active region (the active region s total magnetic flux a) and four measures of the nonpotentiality of the active region: the strong-shear length L(sub SS), the strong-gradient length L(sub SG), the net vertical electric current I(sub N), and the net-current magnetic twist parameter alpha (sub IN). This sample size allowed us to show that each of the four nonpotentiality measures was statistically significantly correlated with active-region CME productivity in time windows of a few days centered on the day of the magnetogram. We have now added a fifth measure of active-region nonpotentiality (the best-constant-alpha magnetic twist parameter (alpha sub BC)), and have expanded the sample to 36 MSFC vector magnetograms of 31 bipolar active regions. This larger sample allows us to demonstrate statistically significant correlations of each of the five nonpotentiality measures with future CME productivity, in time windows of a few days starting from the day of the magnetogram. The two magnetic twist parameters (alpha (sub 1N) and alpha (sub BC)) are normalized measures of an active region s nonpotentially in that they do not depend directly on the size of the active region, while the other three nonpotentiality measures (L(sub SS), L(sub SG), and I(sub N)) are non-normalized measures in that they do depend directly on active-region size. We find (1) Each of the five nonpotentiality measures is statistically significantly correlated (correlation confidence level greater than 95%) with future CME productivity and has a CME prediction success rate of approximately 80%. (2) None of the nonpotentiality measures is a significantly better CME predictor than the others. (3) The active-region phi shows some correlation with CME productivity, but well below a statistically significant level (correlation confidence level less than approximately 80%; CME prediction success rate less than approximately 65%). (4) In addition to depending on magnetic twist, CME productivity appears to have some direct dependence on active-region size (rather than only an indirect dependence through a correlation of magnetic twist with active-region size), but it will take a still larger sample of active regions (50 or more) to certify this. (5) Of the five nonpotentiality measures, L(sub SG) appears to be the best for operational CME forecasting because it is as good or better a CME predictor than the others and it alone does not require a vector magnetogram; L(sub SG) can be measured from a line-of-sight magnetogram such as from the Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO).

Falconer, D. A.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Forecasting Coronal Mass Ejections from Magnetograms

We report further results from our ongoing assessment of magnetogram-based measures of active-region nonpotentiality (magnetic shear and twist) and size as predictors of coronal mass ejections (CMEs). From a set of 36 vector magnetograms of bipolar active regions (Falconer, Moore, & Gary 2004, ApJ, submitted), we have found that (1) each of our 5 measures of active-region nonpotentiality has a 75-80% success rate in predicting whether an active region will produce a CME within 2 days after the magnetogram, (2) the correlation of each of these measures with CME production in this window is statistically significant (confidence level greater than 95%), (3) our measure of active-region size has a 65% success rate in predicting CMEs in this window, but (4) the correlation between active-region size and CME productivity is not statistically significant (confidence level approximately 80%). As part of the work under our pending 2003 LWS TR&T proposal, we will double our sample to approximately 70 active regions in order to demonstrate a statistically significant correlation between active-region size and CME productivity, and to determine whether this correlation is a byproduct of any Sun-produced correlation between magnetic twist and size of active regions. Since the 2002 LWS Science Workshop, we have found a measure of active-region nonpotentiality (the length of strong-gradient neutral line) that can be measured from a line-of-sight magnetogram, and we have generalized this measure and the corresponding measure from a vector magnetogram (the length of strong-shear neutral line) so that they can be applied to multiple-bipole complex active regions as well as to bipolar active regions. Preliminary results will be presented from application of these two generalized measures to our sample of bipolar active regions and to a new sample of multiple-bipole active regions.

Falconer, D. A.↗

NASA NTRS2003

CME Prediction from Line-of-Sight Magnetogram

We have previously shown for bipolar active regions that measures of active-region nonpotentiality from vector magnetograms are correlated with active-region CME productivity. We have now obtained a measure from line-of-sight magnetograms that is well correlated both with our measures of active-region nonpotentiality from vector magnetograms and with active-region CME productivity. The measure is the length of strong-gradient main neutral line (L(sub G)). This is the length of the bipolar region's main neutral line on which the potential transverse field is greater than 150G, and the gradient in the line-of-sight field is greater than 50G/Mm. From the sample of 17 MSFC magnetograms of 12 basically bipolar active regions used in our previous paper, we find that L(sub G) is strongly correlated with one of our vector-magnetogram measures of nonpotentiality, the length of strong-gradient main neutral line L(sub SS) (99.7%). We also find that L(sub G) is as strongly correlated with CME productivity (99.7%) as is L(sub SS). Being obtainable from line-of-sight magnetograms, L(sub G) makes the much larger data set of line-of-sight magnetograms (i.e. from SOHO/MDI and Kitt Peak) available for CME prediction study. This is especially important for evolutionary studies, with SOHO/MDI having no daylight, cloudy weather, or atmospheric seeing problems. This work was supported by funding from NSF's division of Atmospheric Sciences (Space Weather and Shine Programs) and by NASA's office of Space Science (Living with a Star program Solar and Heliospheric Physics Supporting Research and Technology program).

Falconer, D. A.↗

NASA NTRS2003

A Measure from Line-of-Sight Magnetograms for Prediction of Coronal Mass Ejections

From a sample of 17 vector magnetograms of 12 bipolar active regions, we have recently found (1) that a measure of the overall nonpotentiality (the overall twist and shear in the magnetic field) of an active region is given by the strong-shear length L(sub SS), the length of the portion of the main neutral line on which the observed transverse fields is strong (greater than 150 G) and strongly sheared (shear angle greater than 45 deg), and (2) that L(sub SS) is well correlated with the CME productivity of the active regions during the +/- 2-day time window centered on the day of the magnetogram. In the present paper, from the same sample of 17 vector magnetograms, we show that there is a viable proxy for L(sub SS) that can be measured from a line-of-sight magnetogram. This proxy is the strong-gradient length L(sub SG), the length of the portion of the main neutral line on which the potential transverse field is strong (greater than 150 G) and the gradient of the line-of-sight field is sufficiently steep (greater than or approximately 50 G/Mm). In our sample of active regions, L(sub SG) is statistically significantly correlated with L(sub SS) (correlation confidence level greater than 95%), and L(sub SG) is as strongly correlated with active-region CME productivity as is L(sub SS)(correlation confidence level approximately 99.7%). Because L(sub SG) can be measured from line-of-sight magnetograms obtained from conventional magnetographs, such as the magnetograph mode of the Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) on board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO), it is a dependable substitute for L(sub SS) for use in operational CME forecasting. In addition, via measurement of L(sub SG), the years-long, nearly continuous sequence of 1.5-hour-cadence full-disk line-of-sight magnetograms from MDI can be used to track the growth and decay of the large-scale nonpotentiality in active regions and to examine the role of this evolution in active-region CME productivity.

Falconer, D. A.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Solar Coronal Heating and the Magnetic Flux Content of the Network

We investigate the heating of the quiet corona by measuring the increase of coronal luminosity with the amount of magnetic flux in the underlying network at solar minimum when there were no active regions on the face of the Sun. The coronal luminosity is measured from Fe IX/X-Fe XII pairs of coronal images from SOHO/EIT. The network magnetic flux content is measured from SOHO/MDI magnetograms. We find that the luminosity of the corona in our quiet regions increases roughly in proportion to the square root of the magnetic flux content of the network and roughly in proportion to the length of the perimeter of the network magnetic flux clumps. From (1) this result, (2) other observations of many fine-scale explosive events at the edges of network flux clumps, and (3) a demonstration that it is energetically feasible for the heating of the corona in quiet regions to be driven by explosions of granule-sized sheared-core magnetic bipoles embedded in the edges of network flux clumps, we infer that in quiet regions that are not influenced by active regions the corona is mainly heated by such magnetic activity in the edges of the network flux clumps. Our observational results together with our feasibility analysis allow us to predict that (1) at the edges of the network flux clumps there are many transient sheared-core bipoles of the size and lifetime of granules and having transverse field strengths greater than approximately - 100 G, (2) approximately 30 of these bipoles are present per supergranule, and (3) most spicules are produced by explosions of these bipoles.

Moore, R. L.↗

NASA NTRS2003

CME Prediction from Magnetograms

We have found that active regions that are likely to be CME productive can be identified from measures of their nonpotentiality from magnetograms. We have developed four different measures from vector magnetograms and another that can be obtained from a line-of-sight magnetogram. We find that all five measures are strongly correlated with CME productivity to a similar degree. Hence, all five are roughly equally good predictors of active-region CME productivity. Since the measures all have similar predictive ability, the measures that are easiest to reliably measure are the best for operational forecasting of CMEs. The two best measures are the length of strong-shear main neutral line L(sub SS) (the length of the main neutral line with the magnetic shear angle greater than 45deg and observed transverse field greater than 150G) and the length of strong-gradient main neutral line L(sub G) (the length of the main neutral line with line-of-sight magnetic field greater than 50G/Mm and potential transverse field greater than 150G). As L(sub G) is measured from line-of-sight magnetograms it opens the larger data base of SOHO/MDI and Kitt Peak line-of-sight magnetograms for CME prediction study. This is especially important for evolutionary studies, with SOHO/MDI having no daylight, cloudy weather, or atmospheric seeing problems.

Falconer, D. A.↗