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Mueller, C.

Publications and source records attributed to Mueller, C..

11 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2016

Climate Analogues Suggest Limited Potential for Intensification of Production on Current Croplands Under Climate Change

Climate change could pose a major challenge to efforts towards strongly increase food production over the coming decades. However, model simulations of future climate-impacts on crop yields differ substantially in the magnitude and even direction of the projected change. Combining observations of current maximum-attainable yield with climate analogues, we provide a complementary method of assessing the effect of climate change on crop yields. Strong reductions in attainable yields of major cereal crops are found across a large fraction of current cropland by 2050. These areas are vulnerable to climate change and have greatly reduced opportunity for agricultural intensification. However, the total land area, including regions not currently used for crops, climatically suitable for high attainable yields of maize, wheat and rice is similar by 2050 to the present-day. Large shifts in land-use patterns and crop choice will likely be necessary to sustain production growth rates and keep pace with demand.

land-use patterns↗
DOE OSTI2014

Meeting the Radiative Forcing Targets of the Representative Concentration Pathways in a World with Agricultural Climate Impacts

This study assesses how climate impacts on agriculture may change the evolution of the agricultural and energy systems in meeting the end-of-century radiative forcing targets of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). We build on the recently completed ISI-MIP exercise that has produced global gridded estimates of future crop yields for major agricultural crops using climate model projections of the RCPs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). For this study we use the bias-corrected outputs of the HadGEM2-ES climate model as inputs to the LPJmL crop growth model, and the outputs of LPJmL to modify inputs to the GCAM integrated assessment model. Our results indicate that agricultural climate impacts generally lead to an increase in global cropland, as compared with corresponding emissions scenarios that do not consider climate impacts on agricultural productivity. This is driven mostly by negative impacts on wheat, rice, other grains, and oil crops. Still, including agricultural climate impacts does not significantly increase the costs or change the technological strategies of global, whole-system emissions mitigation. In fact, to meet the most aggressive climate change mitigation target (2.6 W/m2 in 2100), the net mitigation costs are slightly lower when agricultural climate impacts are considered. Key contributing factors to these results are (a) low levels of climate change in the low-forcing scenarios, (b) adaptation to climate impacts, simulated in GCAM through inter-regional shifting in the production of agricultural goods, and (c) positive average climate impacts on bioenergy crop yields.

agricultural climate impacts↗
DOE OSTI2014

Agriculture and Climate Change in Global Scenarios: Why Don't the Models Agree

Agriculture is unique among economic sectors in the nature of impacts from climate change. The production activity that transforms inputs into agricultural outputs makes direct use of weather inputs. Previous studies of the impacts of climate change on agriculture have reported substantial differences in outcomes of key variables such as prices, production, and trade. These divergent outcomes arise from differences in model inputs and model specification. The goal of this paper is to review climate change results and underlying determinants from a model comparison exercise with 10 of the leading global economic models that include significant representation of agriculture. By providing common productivity drivers that include climate change effects, differences in model outcomes are reduced. All models show higher prices in 2050 because of negative productivity shocks from climate change. The magnitude of the price increases, and the adaptation responses, differ significantly across the various models. Substantial differences exist in the structural parameters affecting demand, area, and yield, and should be a topic for future research.

Nelson, Gerald↗
DOE OSTI2013

Climate change effects on agriculture: Economic responses to biophysical shocks

Agricultural production is sensitive to weather and will thus be directly affected by climate change. Plausible estimates of these climate change impacts require combined use of climate, crop, and economic models. Results from previous studies vary substantially due to differences in models, scenarios, and data. This paper is part of a collective effort to systematically integrate these three types of models. We focus on the economic component of the assessment, investigating how nine global economic models of agriculture represent endogenous responses to seven standardized climate change scenarios produced by two climate and five crop models. These responses include adjustments in yields, area, consumption, and international trade. We apply biophysical shocks derived from the IPCC’s Representative Concentration Pathway that result in end-of-century radiative forcing of 8.5 watts per square meter. The mean biophysical impact on crop yield with no incremental CO2 fertilization is a 17 percent reduction globally by 2050 relative to a scenario with unchanging climate. Endogenous economic responses reduce yield loss to 11 percent, increase area of major crops by 12 percent, and reduce consumption by 2 percent. Agricultural production, cropland area, trade, and prices show the greatest degree of variability in response to climate change, and consumption the lowest. The sources of these differences includes model structure and specification; in particular, model assumptions about ease of land use conversion, intensification, and trade. This study identifies where models disagree on the relative responses to climate shocks and highlights research activities needed to improve the representation of agricultural adaptation responses to climate change.

climate change adaptation model intercomparison in↗
DOE OSTI2013

Uncertainty in Simulating Wheat Yields Under Climate Change

Anticipating the impacts of climate change on crop yields is critical for assessing future food security. Process-based crop simulation models are the most commonly used tools in such assessments1,2. Analysis of uncertainties in future greenhouse gas emissions and their impacts on future climate change has been increasingly described in the literature3,4 while assessments of the uncertainty in crop responses to climate change are very rare. Systematic and objective comparisons across impact studies is difficult, and thus has not been fully realized5. Here we present the largest coordinated and standardized crop model intercomparison for climate change impacts on wheat production to date. We found that several individual crop models are able to reproduce measured grain yields under current diverse environments, particularly if sufficient details are provided to execute them. However, simulated climate change impacts can vary across models due to differences in model structures and algorithms. The crop-model component of uncertainty in climate change impact assessments was considerably larger than the climate-model component from Global Climate Models (GCMs). Model responses to high temperatures and temperature-by-CO2 interactions are identified as major sources of simulated impact uncertainties. Significant reductions in impact uncertainties through model improvements in these areas and improved quantification of uncertainty through multi-model ensembles are urgently needed for a more reliable translation of climate change scenarios into agricultural impacts in order to develop adaptation strategies and aid policymaking.

Asseng, S.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Dual-Frequency VLBI Study of Centaurus A on Sub-Parsec Scales: The Highest-Resolution View of an Extragalactic Jet

Centaurus A is the closest active galactic nucleus. High resolution imaging using Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) enables us to study the spectral and kinematic behavior of the radio jet-<:ounterjet system on sub-parsec scales, providing essential information for jet emission and formation models. Aims. Our aim is to study the structure and spectral shape of the emission from the central-parsec region of Cen A. Methods. As a target of the Southern Hemisphere VLBI monitoring program TANAMI (Tracking Active Galactic Nuclei with Millliarcsecond Interferometry), VLBI observations of Cen A are made regularly at 8.4 and 22.3 GHz with the Australian Long Baseline Array (LBA) and associated telescopes in Antarctica, Chile, and South Africa. Results. The first dual-frequency images of this source are presented along with the resulting spectral index map. An angular resolution of 0.4 mas x 0.7 mas is achieved at 8.4 GHz, corresponding to a linear scale of less than 0.013 pc. Hence, we obtain the highest resolution VLBI image of Cen A, comparable to previous space-VLBI observations. By combining with the 22.3 GHz image, we present the corresponding dual-frequency spectral index distribution along the sub-parsec scale jet revealing the putative emission regions for recently detected y-rays from the core region by Fermi/LAT. Conclusions. We resolve the innermost structure of the milliarcsecond scale jet and counter jet system of Cen A into discrete components. The simultaneous observations at two frequencies provide the highest resolved spectral index map of an AGN jet allowing us to identify up to four possible sites as the origin of the high energy emission. Key words. galaxies: active galaxies: individual (Centaurus A, NGC 5128) - galaxies: jets - techniques: high angular resolution

Mueller, C.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Twelve and a Half Years of Observations of Centaurus A with RXTE

The Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer has observed the nearest radio galaxy, Centaurus A, in 13 intervals from 1996 August to 2009 February over the 3 - 200 keV band. Spectra accumulated over the 13 intervals were well described with an absorbed power law and an iron line. Cut-off power laws and Compton reflection from cold matter did not provide a better description. For the 2009 January observation we set a lower limit on the cutoff energy at over 2 MeV. The power spectral density function was generated from RXTE/ASM and PCA data as well as an XMM-Newton long look, and clear evidence for a break at 18(+18/-7) days (68% conf.) was seen. Given Cen A's high black hole mass and very low value of L(sub x)/L(sub Edd), the break was a factor of 17+/-9 times higher than the break frequency predicted by the McHardy and coworkers relation, which was empirically derived for a sample of objects, which are radio-quiet and accreting at relatively high values of L(sub bol)/L(sub Edd). We have interpreted our observations in the context of a clumpy molecular torus. The variability characteristics and the broadband spectral energy distribution, when compared to Seyferts, imply that the bright hard X-ray continuum emission may originate at the base of the jet, yet from behind the absorbing line of sight material, in contrast to what is commonly observed from blazars.

Rothschild, R. E.↗
NASA NTRS1993

The EURECA telecommanding chain: Experience with packet telecommand and telemetry systems

The European Retrieval Carrier (EURECA) was launched on its first flight on the 31st July 1992 by the Space Shuttle Atlantis. EURECA is characterized by several new on-board features, most notable Packet Telemetry and a partial implementation of Packet Telecommanding using an early version of the Command Operation Procedure (COP-1) protocol. EURECA has also very low contact time with its Ground Station, with a consequent high number of out-of-visibility onboard operations. This paper concentrates on the implementation and operational experience with the COP-1 Protocol and the effect the short ground contact time has on the design of the Commanding System. Another interesting feature is that the COP-1 is implemented at the control center rather than at the ground station. The COP-1 protocol also successfully supported the mission during the launch where commands were sent via NASCOM and the Shuttle.

Mueller, C.↗
NASA NTRS1977

Improved road handler

Rope-and-pulley device unwinds at rate fairly independent of weight attached to it. Device is easily installed and fabrication is economical. It is particularly suitable as emergency escape device.

Broussard, P. H., Jr.↗