Prioritizing Acquisition Pathways in the State Level Concept
The International Atomic Energy Agency's (IAEA) Department of Safeguards has launched a project to further develop the State-level concept for the planning, implementation, and evaluation of safeguards activities. In order to further evolve the safeguards system an emphasis is placed on integrating inspection-related activities and the State evaluation process to draw safeguards conclusions in the most efficient way. The credible implementation of acquisition pathway analysis is central to the success of the IAEA's State-level concept. NNSA's Office of Nuclear Safeguards and Security (NA-241) The Next Generation Safeguards Initiative (NGSI) is sponsoring Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) to produce a study that will examine the use of acquisition pathway analysis in: (1) Developing a State-specific, State-level approach (SLA) and Annual Implementation Plan (AIP); (2) Maximizing the utility of the physical model; and (3) Supporting resource allocation decisions through a pathway prioritization. To deal with the challenge of developing an effective and efficient SLA, this study looks at: (1) Prioritizing proliferation pathways based on an assessment of a State's capabilities and assumed proliferation strategies; and (2) Relevant State behavior (e.g., transparency, cooperation, etc.) while avoiding subjective judgments about States themselves. The study makes use of case studies and concrete examples in order to illustrate how new concepts and approaches will be implemented, and how they may differ from more traditional safeguards approaches.