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Nagel, P. M.

Publications and source records attributed to Nagel, P. M..

Statistical Time Series Models of Pilot Control with Applications to Instrument Discrimination

A general description of the methodology used in obtaining the transfer function models and verification of model fidelity, frequency domain plots of the modeled transfer functions, numerical results obtained from an analysis of poles and zeroes obtained from z plane to s-plane conversions of the transfer functions, and the results of a study on the sequential introduction of other variables, both exogenous and endogenous into the loop are contained.

Altschul, R. E.

Software reliability: Additional investigations into modeling with replicated experiments

The effects of programmer experience level, different program usage distributions, and programming languages are explored. All these factors affect performance, and some tentative relational hypotheses are presented. An analytic framework for replicated and non-replicated (traditional) software experiments is presented. A method of obtaining an upper bound on the error rate of the next error is proposed. The method was validated empirically by comparing forecasts with actual data. In all 14 cases the bound exceeded the observed parameter, albeit somewhat conservatively. Two other forecasting methods are proposed and compared to observed results. Although demonstrated relative to this framework that stages are neither independent nor exponentially distributed, empirical estimates show that the exponential assumption is nearly valid for all but the extreme tails of the distribution. Except for the dependence in the stage probabilities, Cox's model approximates to a degree what is being observed.

Nagel, P. M.

Software reliability: Repetitive run experimentation and modeling

A software experiment conducted with repetitive run sampling is reported. Independently generated input data was used to verify that interfailure times are very nearly exponentially distributed and to obtain good estimates of the failure rates of individual errors and demonstrate how widely they vary. This fact invalidates many of the popular software reliability models now in use. The log failure rate of interfailure time was nearly linear as a function of the number of errors corrected. A new model of software reliability is proposed that incorporates these observations.

Nagel, P. M.

Modeling of a latent fault detector in a digital system

Methods of modeling the detection time or latency period of a hardware fault in a digital system are proposed that explain how a computer detects faults in a computational mode. The objectives were to study how software reacts to a fault, to account for as many variables as possible affecting detection and to forecast a given program's detecting ability prior to computation. A series of experiments were conducted on a small emulated microprocessor with fault injection capability. Results indicate that the detecting capability of a program largely depends on the instruction subset used during computation and the frequency of its use and has little direct dependence on such variables as fault mode, number set, degree of branching and program length. A model is discussed which employs an analog with balls in an urn to explain the rate of which subsequent repetitions of an instruction or instruction set detect a given fault.

Nagel, P. M.