Multiscale analysis of global variation in tree allometric relationships: parameter sets for global vegetation models
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
Ian Grant↗
Engineering topics
Nancy Y Kiang
Publications and source records attributed to Nancy Y Kiang.
Aera-Mip: Emission Pathways, Remaining Budgets, and Carbon Cycle Dynamics Compatible With 1.5 and 2 °C Global Warming Stabilization
While international climate policies now focus on limiting global warming to well below 2 °C or pursuing a 1.5 °C level of global warming, the climate modelling community has not provided an experimental design in which all Earth system models (ESMs) converge and stabilize at the same prescribed global warming levels. This gap hampers accurate estimations based on comprehensive ESMs of the carbon emission pathways and budgets needed to meet such agreed warming levels and of the associated climate impacts under temperature stabilization. Here, we apply the Adaptive Emission Reduction Approach (AERA) with ESMs to provide such simulations in which all models converge at 1.5 and 2.0 °C warming levels by adjusting their emissions over time. These emission-driven simulations provide a wide range of emission pathways and resulting atmospheric CO 2 projections for a given warming level, uncovering uncertainty ranges that were previously missing in the traditional Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) scenarios with prescribed greenhouse gas concentration pathways. Meeting the 1.5 °C warming level requires a 40 % (full model range: 7 % to 76 %) reduction in multi-model mean CO 2 -forcing-equivalent (CO 2 -fe) emissions from 2025 to 2030, a 98 % (57 % to 127 %) reduction from 2025 to 2050, and a stabilization at 1.0 (−1.7 to 2.9) PgC yr−1 from 2100 onward after the 1.5 °C global warming level is reached. Meeting the 2.0 °C warming level requires a 47 % (8 % to 92 %) reduction in multi-model mean CO 2 -fe emissions until 2050 and a stabilization at 1.7 (−1.5 to 2.7) PgC yr−1 from 2100 onward. The on-average positive emissions under stabilized global temperatures are the result of a decreasing transient climate response to cumulative CO 2 -fe emissions over time under stabilized global warming. This evolution is consistent with a slightly negative zero emissions commitment – initially assumed to be zero – and leads to an increase in the post-2025 CO 2 -fe emission budget by a factor of 2.2 (−0.8 to 6.9) by 2150 for the 1.5 °C warming level and a factor of 1.4 (0.9 to 2.4) for the 2.0 °C warming level compared to its first estimate in 2025. The median CO 2 -only carbon budget by 2150, relative to 2020, is 800 GtCO 2 for the 1.5 °C warming level and 2250 GtCO 2 for the 2.0 °C warming level. These median values exceed the median IPCC AR6 estimates by 60 % for the 1.5 °C warming level and 67 % for 2.0 °C. Some of the differences may be explained by the choice of the mitigation scenario for non-CO 2 radiative agents. Our simulations highlight shifts in carbon uptake dynamics under stabilized temperature, such as a cessation of the carbon sinks in the North Atlantic and in tropical forests. On the other hand, the Southern Ocean remains a carbon sink centuries after temperatures stabilize. Overall, this new type of warming-level-based emission-driven simulation offers a more coherent assessment across climate models and opens up a wide range of possibilities for studying both the carbon cycle and climate impacts, such as extreme events, under climate stabilization.
Adaptive Emission Reduction Approach↗
Detectability Simulations of a Near-infrared Surface Biosignature on Proxima Centauri b with Future Space Observatories
Telescope missions are currently being designed that will make direct imaging of habitable exoplanets possible in the near future, and studies are needed to quantify the detectability of biosignature features in the planet's reflectance spectrum. We simulated the detectability of a near-infrared-absorbing surface biosignature feature with simulated observations of the nearby exoplanet Proxima Centauri b. We modeled a biosignature spectral feature with a reflectance spectrum based on an anoxygenic photosynthetic bacterial species that has strong absorption at 1 μm, which could make it well suited for life on an M-dwarf-hosted planet. We modeled the distribution of this organism across the planet's surface based on climate states from a 3D general circulation model (GCM) that were Archean- and Proterozoic-like exo-Earth analogs. We included the GCM states' prognostically simulated water clouds and added organic haze into the Archean-like atmospheres. We simulated observations of these Proxima Centauri b scenarios with the LUVOIR-A and B telescope concepts, with LUVOIR-B serving as a proxy to the planned Habitable Worlds Observatory. We calculated the integration times necessary to detect the biosignature and found that it would be detectable on Proxima Centauri b if the organism is moderately abundant (greater than a 1%–4% global surface area coverage), as long as the atmosphere is transmitting in the wavelength range under consideration. Small amounts of methane, clouds, and haze do not greatly impede detectability. We found preliminary evidence that such a biosignature would be detectable on exoplanets within 15 pc, but further investigations are needed to corroborate this.
Exoplanet astronomy↗
Accounting for Herbaceous Communities in Process-Based Models Will Advance Our Understanding of “Grassy” Ecosystems
Grassland and other herbaceous communities cover significant portions of Earth's terrestrial surface and provide many critical services, such as carbon sequestration, wildlife habitat, and food production. Forecasts of global change impacts on these services will require predictive tools, such as process-based dynamic vegetation models. Yet, model representation of herbaceous communities and ecosystems lags substantially behind that of tree communities and forests. The limited representation of herbaceous communities within models arises from two important knowledge gaps: first, our empirical understanding of the principles governing herbaceous vegetation dynamics is either incomplete or does not provide mechanistic information necessary to drive herbaceous community processes with models; second, current model structure and parameterization of grass and other herbaceous plant functional types limits the ability of models to predict outcomes of competition and growth for herbaceous vegetation. In this review, we provide direction for addressing these gaps by: (1) presenting a brief history of how vegetation dynamics have been developed and incorporated into earth system models, (2) reporting on a model simulation activity to evaluate current model capability to represent herbaceous vegetation dynamics and ecosystem function, and (3) detailing several ecological properties and phenomena that should be a focus for both empiricists and modelers to improve representation of herbaceous vegetation in models. Together, empiricists and modelers can improve representation of herbaceous ecosystem processes within models. In so doing, we will greatly enhance our ability to forecast future states of the earth system, which is of high importance given the rapid rate of environmental change on our planet.
biogeochemistry↗
Interactive Biogenic Emissions and Drought Stress Effects on Atmospheric Composition in NASA GISS ModelE
Drought is a hydroclimatic extreme that causes perturbations to the terrestrial biosphere and acts as a stressor on vegetation, affecting emissions patterns. During severe drought, isoprene emissions are reduced. In this paper, we focus on capturing this reduction signal by implementing a new percentile isoprene drought stress (y d ) algorithm in NASA GISS ModelE based on the MEGAN3 (Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature Version 3) approach as a function of a photosynthetic parameter (V c,max ) and water stress (β). Four global transient simulations from 2003–2013 are used to demonstrate the effect without y d (Default_ModelE) and with online y d (DroughtStress_ModelE). DroughtStress_ModelE is evaluated against the observed isoprene measurements at the Missouri Ozarks AmeriFlux (MOFLUX) site during the 2012 severe drought where improvements in the correlation coefficient indicate it is a suitable drought stress parameterization to capture the reduction signal during severe drought. The application of y d globally leads to a decadal average reduction of ∼ 2.7 %, which is equivalent to ∼14.6 Tg yr -1 of isoprene. The changes have larger impacts in regions such as the southeastern US. DroughtStress_ModelE is validated using the satellite ΩHCHO column from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and surface O 3 observations across regions of the US to examine the effect of drought on atmospheric composition. It was found that the inclusion of isoprene drought stress reduced the overestimation of ΩHCHO in Default_ModelE during the 2007 and 2011 southeastern US droughts and led to improvements in simulated O 3 during drought periods. We conclude that isoprene drought stress should be tuned on a model-by-model basis because the variables used in the parameterization responses are relative to the land surface model hydrology scheme (LSM) and the effects of y d application could be larger than seen here due to ModelE not having large biases of isoprene during severe drought.
drought stress effects↗
Discovery of Chlorophyll d : Isolation and Characterization of a Far-Red Cyanobacterium from the Original Site of Manning and Strain (1943) at Moss Beach, California
We have isolated a chlorophyll-d-containing cyanobacterium from the intertidal field site at Moss Beach, on the coast of Central California, USA, where Manning and Strain (1943) originally discovered this far-red chlorophyll. Here, we present the cyanobacterium’s environmental description, culturing procedure, pigment composition, ultrastructure, and full genome sequence. Among cultures of far-red cyanobacteria obtained from red algae from the same site, this strain was an epiphyte on a brown macroalgae. Its Q y in vivo absorbance peak is centered at 704–705 nm, the shortest wavelength observed thus far among the various known Acaryochloris strains. Its Chl a /Chl d ratio was 0.01, with Chl d accounting for 99% of the total Chl d and Chl a mass. TEM imagery indicates the absence of phycobilisomes, corroborated by both pigment spectra and genome analysis. The Moss Beach strain codes for only a single set of genes for producing allophycocyanin. Genomic sequencing yielded a 7.25 Mbp circular chromosome and 10 circular plasmids ranging from 16 kbp to 394 kbp. We have determined that this strain shares high similarity with strain S15, an epiphyte of red algae, while its distinct gene complement and ecological niche suggest that this strain could be the closest known relative to the original Chl d source of Manning and Strain (1943). The Moss Beach strain is designated Acaryochloris sp. (marina) strain Moss Beach.
chlorophyll d↗
The Peak Absorbance Wavelength of Photosynthetic Pigments Around Other Stars From Spectral Optimization
In the search for life on other planets, the presence of photosynthetic surface vegetation may be detectable from the colors of light it reflects, which on the modern Earth is a steep increase in reflectance between the red and near-infrared wavelengths, a “red edge.” This edge-like signature occurs at wavelengths of peak photon absorbance, which are the result of adaptations of the phototroph to their spectral environment. On planets orbiting different stellar types, red edge analogs may occur at other colors than red. Thus, knowing the wavelengths at which photosynthetic organisms preferentially absorb and reflect photons is necessary to detect red edge analogs on other planets. Using a numerical model that predicts the absorbance spectrum of extant photosynthetic pigments on Earth from Marosvolgyi & van Gorkom (2010), we calculate the absorbance spectrum for pigments on an Earth-like planet around F through late M type stars that are adapted for maximal energy production. In this model, cellular energy production is maximized when pigments are tuned to absorb at the wavelength that maximizes energy input from incident photons while minimizing energy losses due to thermal emission and building cellular photosynthetic apparatus. We find that peak photon absorption for photosynthetic organisms around F type stars tends to be in the blue while for G, K, and early M type stars, red or just beyond is preferred. Around the coolest M type stars, these organisms may preferentially absorb in the near-infrared, possibly past 1 micron. These predictions are consistent with previous, qualitative estimates of pigment absorptance. Our predicted absorbance spectra for photosynthetic surface organisms depend on both the stellar type and planetary atmospheric composition, especially atmospheric water vapor concentrations, which alter the availability of surface photons and thus the predicted pigment absorption. By constraining the absorbance spectra of alien, photosynthetic organisms, future observations may be better equipped to detect the weak spectral signal of red edge analogs.
astrobiology↗
CMIP6 Historical Simulations (1850‐2014) with GISS‐E2.1
Simulations of the CMIP6 historical period 1850‐‐2014, characterized by the emergence of anthropogenic climate drivers like greenhouse gases, are presented for different configurations of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Earth System ModelE2.1. The GISS‐E2.1 ensembles are more sensitive to forcing than their CMIP5 predecessors (GISS‐E2), but warm less during recent decades due to reduced total forcing. This forcing reduction is attributed to an increase in longwave opacity in pre‐industrial simulations, resulting in an atmosphere less sensitive to further increases in opacity that result from rising greenhouse gas concentrations. This demonstrates the importance of the base climatology to forcing and forced climate trends. Most model versions match observed temperature trends since 1979 from the ocean to the stratosphere. The choice of ocean model is important to the transient climate response, as found in CMIP5 GISS‐E2: the model that more efficiently exports heat to the deep ocean shows a smaller rise in tropospheric temperature. Model sea level rise over the historical period is traced to excessive drawdown of aquifers to meet irrigation demand with a smaller contribution from thermal expansion. This shows how fully coupled models can provide indirect observational constraints upon forcing, in this case, constraining irrigation rates with observed sea level changes. The overall agreement of GISS‐E2.1 with observed trends is familiar from evaluation of its predecessors, as is the conclusion that these trends are almost entirely anthropogenic in origin.
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Ea↗
GISS‐E2.1: Configurations and Climatology
This paper describes the GISS‐E2.1 contribution to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 6 (CMIP6). This model version differs from the predecessor model (GISS‐E2) chiefly due to parameterization improvements to the atmospheric and ocean model components, while keeping atmospheric resolution the same. Model skill when compared to modern era climatologies is significantly higher than in previous versions. Additionally, updates in forcings have a material impact on the results. In particular, there have been specific improvements in representations of modes of variability (such as the Madden‐Julian Oscillation and other modes in the Pacific) and significant improvements in the simulation of the climate of the Southern Oceans, including sea ice. The effective climate sensitivity to 2xCO2 is slightly higher than previously at 2.7‐‐3.1°C (depending on version), and is a result of lower CO2 radiative forcing and stronger positive feedbacks.
General Circulation Model↗
Climates of Warm Earth-like Planets. III. Fractional Habitability from a Water Cycle Perspective
The habitable fraction of a planet's surface is important for the detectability of surface biosignatures. The extent and distribution of habitable areas are influenced by external parameters that control the planet's climate, atmospheric circulation, and hydrological cycle. We explore these issues using the ROCKE-3D general circulation model, focusing on terrestrial water fluxes and thus the potential for the existence of complex life on land. Habitability is examined as a function of insolation and planet rotation for an Earth-like world with zero obliquity and eccentricity orbiting the Sun. We assess fractional habitability using an aridity index that measures the net supply of water to the land. Earth-like planets become "superhabitable" (a larger habitable surface area than Earth) as insolation and day-length increase because their climates become more equable, reminiscent of past warm periods on Earth when complex life was abundant and widespread. The most slowly rotating, most highly irradiated planets, though, occupy a hydrological regime unlike any on Earth, with extremely warm, humid conditions at high latitudes but little rain and subsurface water storage. Clouds increasingly obscure the surface as insolation increases, but visibility improves for modest increases in rotation period. Thus, moderately slowly rotating rocky planets with insolation near or somewhat greater than modern Earth's appear to be promising targets for surface characterization by a future direct imaging mission.
Exoplanet atmospheric variability↗
Habitable Climate Scenarios for Proxima Centauri B with a Dynamic Ocean
The nearby exoplanet Proxima Centauri b will be a prime future target for characterization, despite questions about its retention of water. Climate models with static oceans suggest that Proxima b could harbor a small dayside surface ocean despite its weak instellation. We present the first climate simulations of Proxima b with a dynamic ocean. We find that an ocean-covered Proxima b could have a much broader area of surface liquid water but at much colder temperatures than previously suggested, due to ocean heat transport and/or depression of the freezing point by salinity. Elevated greenhouse gas concentrations do not necessarily produce more open ocean because of dynamic regime transitions between a state with an equatorial Rossby-Kelvin wave pattern and a state with a day-night circulation. For an evolutionary path leading to a highly saline ocean, Proxima b could be an inhabited, mostly open ocean planet with halophilic life. A fresh water ocean produces a smaller liquid region than does an Earth salinity ocean. An ocean planet in 3:2 spin-orbit resonance has a permanent tropical waterbelt for moderate eccentricity. A larger vs. smaller area of surface liquid water for similar equilibrium temperature may be distinguishable using the amplitude of the thermal phase curve. Simulations of Proxima Centauri b may be a model for the habitability of weakly irradiated planets orbiting slightly cooler or warmer stars, e.g., in the TRAPPIST-1, LHS 1140, GJ 273, and GJ 3293 systems.
Aquaplanet↗
Climates of Warm Earth-Like Planets. I. 3D Model Simulations
We present a large ensemble of simulations of an Earth-like world with increasing insolation and rotation rate. Unlike previous work utilizing idealized aquaplanet congurations we focus our simulations on modern Earth-like topography. The orbital period is the same as modern Earth, but with zero obliquity and eccentricity. The atmosphere is 1 bar N2-dominated with CO2=400 ppmv and CH4=1 ppmv. The simulations include two types of oceans; one without ocean heat transport (OHT) between grid cells as has been commonly used in the exoplanet literature, while the other is a fully coupled dynamic bathtub type ocean. The dynamical regime transitions that occur as day length increases induce climate feedbacks producing cooler temperatures, rst via the reduction of water vapor with increasing rotation period despite decreasing shortwave cooling by clouds, and then via decreasing water vapor and increasing shortwave cloud cooling, except at the highest insolations. Simulations without OHT are more sensitive to insolation changes for fast rotations while slower rotations are relatively insensitive to ocean choice. OHT runs with faster rotations tend to be similar with gyres transporting heat poleward making them warmer than those without OHT. For slower rotations OHT is directed equator-ward and no high latitude gyres are apparent. Uncertainties in cloud parameterization preclude a precise determination of habitability but do not a affect robust aspects of exoplanet climate sensitivity. This is the first paper in a series that will investigate aspects of habitability in the simulations presented herein. The datasets from this study are open source and publicly available.
Planetary systems↗
Photosynthesis and Astrobiology: Looking for Life Elsewhere
Photosynthesis produces signs of life we can see from space: the absorbance spectrum of surface photosynthetic pigments and, with oxygenic photosynthesis, atmospheric oxygen. Since the first discovery of a planet in another solar system in 1989, there has been an explosion in the detection of exoplanets (over 1849 as of 7 November 2014) and we are getting ever closer to finding that Goldilocks planet that might harbour life. With telescope observations of these planets, oxygenic photosynthesis has been considered our most robust target 'biosignature' that would not appear on a lifeless planet. Since anoxygenic photosynthetic organisms do not produce unambiguously biogenic gases, there is interest in their pigments serving as spectral indicators of life. But will they look the same as on Earth, can we distinguish them from the abiotic, and what will dominate on another planet? Examples from Earth provide us with the potential to extrapolate some rules for photosynthesis to predict its signature on another planet, but there are yet things we must answer about life here to improve our confidence. In particular, given the combination of the available stellar spectrum and molecular constraints on photon energy use, can we predict the pigment spectral features that will dominate, which reductant will match, and what biogenic gases would result? We take clues from the diversity of anoxygenic photosynthetic metabolisms and three very recent examples of oxygenic photosynthesis utilizing other reaction centre (RC) chlorophylls in addition to chlorophyll a (Chl a).
Pigments↗
Mass-Specific Power at the Organism and Biosphere Level
The concept of mass-specific power (MSP) quantitatively relates energy flux to the biomass that flux can sustain. We sought to assess the range and distribution of MSP as expressed at both the organism and biosphere level. The former serves to establish what is possible, and what predominates, in physiological terms; the latter reflects the expression of that physiological potential in an environmental context. To assess the potential range of MSP across a diversity of organisms and physiological states, we compiled a data set of more than 10,000 individual MSP measurements, encompassing more than 2900 unique species and spanning 22 orders of magnitude in body mass. Across the data set, MSP varies over six orders of magnitude, from 3 x 10-5 to 49 Watts per gram biomass carbon (W/gC), but the majority of measured values fall within a relatively narrow range of 0.018 ± 6.4-fold W/gC. It is well documented, and clearly expressed in the data set, that MSP exhibits a strong mass dependence within specific taxa (e.g., birds, mammals, and many others); however, MSP exhibits no mass dependence when considering the data set overall. To assess the expression of MSP in environmental context, we estimated energy utilization rates within eight distinct components of the global biosphere, and for the biosphere overall, and used recently published estimates of biomass within those components to compute MSP. We estimate MSP of 0.005 W/gC for the global biosphere as a whole. The close agreement with the organism-level all-species mean (within 4-fold) is noteworthy because the organism-level data set is dominated in statistical terms by animals, while the global biosphere is dominated in mass terms by trees and microorganisms. The various components of the microbe-dominated marine biosphere exhibit a systematic 5 order of magnitude decrease in MSP from the top of the water column (marine primary producers: 0.9 W/gC) to the depths of the sediment column (> 1m sediment biota: 3 x 10-6 W/gC). Biomass turnover rates, combined with the microbial capacity for both high specific growth rates and low maintenance rates, appear to underlie this large range in MSP, which is not expressed to the same extent in the terrestrial biosphere.
Tori M Hoehler↗
Continuous Habitable Zones: Pairing a GCM and Bayesian Framework to Predict Habitable Zone Evolution
In the near-future, new space telescopes like JWST, LUVOIR, and HabEx will begin attempting to explore the properties of atmospheres of potentially habitable planets. This will require a significant amount of time and resources for even a single planet, which makes it essential to prioritize observations by those most-likely to have detectable life. Here we present a statistical method to estimate the probabilities that specific exoplanets have been continuously in the habitable zone of their host stars for more than 2 billion years, the approximate time it took life on Earth to significantly increase the oxygen content of the atmosphere. We introduce the use of statistics of an ensemble of 3D planetary general circulation models to estimate these probabilities, replacing prior 1D model estimates.
habitable planets↗