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Nat Gopalswamy

Publications and source records attributed to Nat Gopalswamy.

9 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2023

What Do Halo Cmes Tell Us About Solar Cycle 25?

It is known that the weak state of the heliosphere due to diminished solar activity in cycle 24 backreacted on coronal mass ejections (CMEs) to make them appear wider for a given speed. One of the consequences of the weak state of the heliosphere is that more CMEs appear as halo CMEs (HCMEs), and halos are formed at shorter heliocentric distances. Current predictions for the strength of solar cycle (SC) 25 range from half to twice the strength of SC 24. We compare the HCME occurrence rate and other properties during the rise phase of cycles 23, 24, and 25 to weigh in on the strength of SC 25. We find that HCME and solar wind properties in SC 25 are intermediate between SCs 23 and 24, but closer to SC 24. The HCME occurrence rate, normalized to the sunspot number, is higher in SCs 24 and 25 than in SC 23. The solar wind total pressure in SC 25 is ∼35% smaller than that in SC 23. Furthermore, the occurrence rates of high-energy solar energetic particle events and intense geomagnetic storms are well below the corresponding values in SC 23, but similar to those in SC 24. We conclude that cycle 25 is likely to be similar to or slightly stronger than cycle 24, in agreement with polar-field precursor methods for cycle 25 prediction.

Solar coronal mass ejections↗
NASA NTRS2023

The Faraday Effect Tracker of Coronal and Heliospheric Structure (FETCH) Instrument

There continue to be open questions regarding the solar wind and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). For example: how do magnetic fields within CMEs and corotating/stream interaction regions (CIRs/SIRs) evolve in the inner heliosphere? What is the radially distributed magnetic profile of shock-driving CMEs? What is the internal magnetic structure of CMEs that cause magnetic storms? It is clear that these questions involve the magnetic configurations of solar wind and transient interplanetary plasma structures, for which we have limited knowledge. In order to better understand the origin of the magnetic field variability in steady-state structures and transient events, it is necessary to probe the magnetic field in Earth-directed structures/disturbances. This is the goal of the Multiview Observatory for Solar Terrestrial Science (MOST) mission (Gopalswamy et al., 2022). For MOST to answer the aforementioned questions, we propose the instrument concept of the Faraday Effect Tracker of Coronal and Heliospheric structures (FETCH), a simultaneous quad-line-of-sight polarization radio remote-sensing instrument. With FETCH, spacecraft radio beams passing through the Sun–Earth line offer the possibility of obtaining information of plasma conditions via analysis of radio propagation effects such as Faraday rotation and wave dispersion, which provide information of the magnetic field and total electron content (TEC). This is the goal of the FETCH instrument, one of ten instruments proposed to be hosted on the MOST mission. The MOST mission will provide an unprecedented opportunity to achieve NASA’s heliophysics science goal to “explore and characterize the physical processes in the space environment from the Sun” (Gopalswamy et al., 2022).

Solar corona↗
NASA NTRS2023

Observation of the Radiation Environment and Solar Energetic Particle Events in Mars Orbit in May 2018- June 2022

Epithermal Neutron Detector (FREND). Here we present results from measurements of the charged particle fluxes, dose rates and estimation of dose equivalent rates at ExoMars TGO Mars science orbit, provided by Liulin-MO from May 2018 to June 2022. The period of measurements covers the declining and minimum phases of the solar activity in 24th solar cycle and the rising phase of the 25th cycle. Compared are the radiation values of the galactic cosmic rays (GCR) obtained during the different phases of the solar activity. The highest values of the dose rate and flux from GCR are registered from March to August 2020. At the minimum of 24th and transition to 25th solar cycle the dose rate from GCR is 15.9 ± 1.6 µGy h−1, particle flux is 3.3 ± 0.17 cm−2 s−1, dose equivalent rate is 72.3 ± 14.4 µSv h−1. Since September 2020 the dose rate and flux of GCR decrease. Particular attention is drawn to the observation of the solar energetic particle (SEP) events in July, September and October 2021, February and March 2022 as well as their effects on the radiation environment on TGO during the corresponding periods. The SEP event during15–19 February 2022 is the most powerful event observed in our data. The SEP dose during this event is 13.8 ± 1.4 mGy (in Si), the SEP dose equivalent is 21.9 ± 4.4 mSv. SEP events recorded in Mars orbit are related to coronal mass ejections (CME) observed by SOHO and STEREO A coronagraphs. Compared are the time profiles of the count rates measured by Liulin-MO, the neutron detectors of FREND and neutron detectors of the High Energy Neutron Detector (HEND) aboard Mars Odyssey during 15–19 February 2022 event. The data obtained is important for the knowledge of the radiation environment around Mars, regarding future manned and robotic flights to the planet. The data for SEP events in Mars orbit during July 2021-March 2022 contribute to the details on the solar activity at a time when Mars is on the opposite side of the Sun from Earth.

Jordanka Semkova↗
NASA NTRS2022

Effect of the Heliospheric State on CME Evolution

The culmination of solar cycle 24 by the end of 2019 has created the opportunity to compare the differing properties of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) between two whole solar cycles: solar cycle 23 (SC 23) and solar cycle 24 (SC 24). We report on the width evolution of limb CMEs in SCs 23 and 24 in order to test the suggestion by Gopalswamy et al. that CME flux ropes attain pressure balance at larger heliocentric distances in SC 24. We measure CME width as a function of heliocentric distance for a significantly large number of limb CMEs (∼1000) and determine the distances where the CMEs reach constant width in each cycle. We introduced a new parameter, the transition height (hc) of a CME, defined as the critical heliocentric distance beyond which the CME width stabilizes to a quasi-constant value. Cycle and phase-to-phase comparisons are based on this new parameter. We find that the average value of hc in SC 24 is 62% higher than that in SC 23. SC 24 CMEs attain their peak width at larger distances from the Sun than SC 23 CMEs do. The enhanced transition height in SC 24 is new observational ratification of the anomalous expansion. The anomalous expansion of SC 24 CMEs, which is caused by the weak state of the heliosphere, accounts for the larger heliocentric distance where the pressure balance between CME flux rope and the ambient medium is attained.

Solar coronal mass ejections↗
NASA NTRS2022

Study of the Mass-loss Rate from the Sun

We investigate the temporal evolution of the yearly total mass-loss rate (YTMLR) from the Sun through coronal mass ejections (CMEs) over solar cycles 23 and 24. The mass determination of CMEs can be subject to significant uncertainty. To minimize this problem, we have used extensive statistical analysis. For this purpose, we employed data included in the Coordinated Data Analysis Workshop (CDAW) catalog. We estimated the contributions to mass loss from the Sun from different subsamples of CMEs (selected on the basis of their masses, angular widths, and position angles). The temporal variations of the YTMLR were compared to those of the sunspot number (SSN), X-ray flare flux, and the Disturbance Storm Time (Dst) index. We show that the CME mass included in the CDAW catalog reflects with high accuracy the actual mass-loss rate from the Sun through CMEs. Additionally, it is shown that the CME mass distribution in the log-lin representation reflects the Gaussian distribution very well. This means that the CMEs included in the CDAW catalog form one coherent population of ejections that have been correctly identified. Unlike the CME occurrence rate, it turns out that the YTMLR is a very good indicator of solar activity (e.g., SSN) and space weather (e.g., Dst index) consequences. These results are very important, since the YTMLR, unlike the mass loss through solar wind, significantly depends on solar cycles.

the sun↗
NASA NTRS2014

Major Solar Eruptions and High-Energy Particle Events During Solar Cycle 24

We report on a study of all major solar eruptions that occurred on the frontside of the Sun during the rise to peak phase of cycle 24 (first 62 months) in order to understand the key factors affecting the occurrence of large solar energetic particle events (SEPs) and ground level enhancement (GLE) events. The eruptions involve major flares with soft X-ray peak flux greater than or equal to 5.0 x10(exp−5) Wm(exp−2) (i.e., flare size greater than or equal to M5.0) and accompanying coronal mass ejections (CMEs). The selection criterion was based on the fact that the only front-side GLE in cycle 24 (GLE 71) had a flare size of M5.1. Only approximately 37% of the major eruptions from the western hemisphere resulted in large SEP events. Almost the same number of large SEP events was produced in weaker eruptions (flare size less than M5.0), suggesting that the soft X-ray flare is not a good indicator of SEP or GLE events. On the other hand, the CME speed is a good indicator of SEP and GLE events because it is consistently high supporting the shock acceleration mechanism. We found the CME speed, magnetic connectivity to Earth (in longitude and latitude), and ambient conditions as the main factors that contribute to the lack of high-energy particle events during cycle 24. Several eruptions poorly connected to Earth (eastern-hemisphere or behind-the-west-limb events) resulted in very large SEP events detected by the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) spacecraft. Some very fast CMEs, likely to have accelerated particles to GeV energies, did not result in a GLE event because of poor latitudinal connectivity. The stringent latitudinal requirement suggests that the highest-energy particles are likely accelerated in the nose part of shocks, while the lower energy particles are accelerated at all parts. There were also well-connected fast CMEs, which did not seem to have accelerated high-energy particles due to possible unfavorable ambient conditions (high Alfven speed, overall reduction in acceleration efficiency in cycle 24).

Flares↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Origin of High-Energy Protons Responsible for Late-Phase Pion-Decay Gamma-Ray Continuum from the Sun

Gamma-ray emission from solar eruptions can last far beyond the impulsive phase of the associated flares, and hence termed as sustained gamma-ray emission (SGRE). These gamma-rays result from the decay of neutral pions produced when >300 MeV protons collide with hydrogen and heavier elements in the solar photosphere. The source of protons producing SGRE has two possible origins: (i) particles accelerated in the associated flare are somehow trapped in magnetic structures and diffuse slowly to the chromosphere, and (ii) particles accelerated at the shock front that diffuse back to the Sun. In this presentation, we compile currently available observations and inferences that support these two possibilities. We use the gamma-ray data from the Fermi Large Area Telescope (Fermi/LAT) in conjunction with coronal mass ejection (CME) data from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) and type II radio burst information from the Wind spacecraft. We also use the GOES soft X-ray flare information.

Nat Gopalswamy↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Impact of Solar Cycle Variation on Space Weather

We report on the solar cycle variation of solar eruptions and their space weather consequences during solar cycles 23-25. While the solar activity cycle is primarily expressed in terms of the Sunspot number (SSN), coronal mass ejections (CMEs) provide a different perspective on the solar cycle owing to their origin in sunspot regions as well as other non-spot magnetic regions such as quiescent filament regions. Weak solar activity observed in solar cycle 24 has been found to result in a weak heliospheric state, which backreacted on CME properties. The cycle resulted in mild space weather in that the number of large solar energetic particle events and geomagnetic storms decreased significantly. The occurrence of intense geomagnetic storms and high-energy SEP events was drastically reduced, much more than the reduction in the solar activity. The current status of solar cycle 25 indicates that it will be similar to solar cycle 24 or slightly stronger, which means a mild space weather in this cycle as well. We illustrate this using the data obtained during the rise phase of solar cycle 25 in comparison with the corresponding phases in cycles 23 and 24.

Nat Gopalswamy↗