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Nathan Cruze

Publications and source records attributed to Nathan Cruze.

6 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Statistical Engineering Toward Commercial Supersonic Flight: NASA's Quesst Mission

NASA’s Quesst Mission has dual goals of demonstrating low-noise supersonic technology in flight and surveying public reactions to low-noise supersonic overflight. For half a century, commercial aircraft have been required to fly slower than the speed of sound over land to prevent “creating an unacceptable situation” on the ground due to sonic booms. However, aircraft shaping techniques honed through decades of research have dramatically changed the way shockwaves from supersonic flight merge together as they travel to the ground. What used to sound like a boom on the ground will be transformed into a thump. NASA is now building a full-scale, piloted demonstration aircraft called the X-59 to demonstrate low-noise supersonic flight. In 2024, the X-59 aircraft will commence a national series of community overflight surveys to collect data on how people perceive “sonic thumps.” The results will be provided to national and international noise regulators as they consider creating new standards that allow commercial supersonic flight over land at acceptably low noise levels. In this presentation we provide historical context for the current prohibitions on supersonic commercial flight. Using data collected during earlier NASA tests, we demonstrate how generalized linear mixed models can be used to inform the functional dose-response curve. We also illustrate simulation experiments of the variability of sonic thump exposure across the United States. Finally, we discuss some of the challenges in designing the future community studies and generalizing them to a nationally-representative dose-response curve.

Quesst↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Effects of Dose Error and Sample Size on Sonic Boom Dose-response Curves

NASA will soon be collecting noise-annoyance community survey data as the X-59 aircraft flies supersonically over several communities in the USA. Sparse measurements of the X-59 sonic thumps will be used together with physics-based simulations to estimate noise doses at survey participant locations. These dose estimates have associated error that affects the accuracy of modeled dose-response curves, which can result in misestimation of annoyance. The precision in dose-response curves is also a consideration in selecting the number of survey participants. To enable pretest studies of dose error and precision, simulated dose-response data were generated based on NASA’s Quiet Supersonic Flights 2018 test. The data included various degrees of dose error and sample size. Frequentist multilevel logistic regression models were fit to the true and perturbed dose-response data. Simple proportional relationships were identified between the model parameters and the perturbation standard deviation. The summary dose-response curves illustrate the impact on accuracy if dose error is not accounted for in the model. The precision in the dose-response curves is also shown as the number of participants and degree of participation is varied. Finally, sampling variability is illustrated by showing the dose-response curves for several replicates with random draws of participants and errors.

X-59↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA’s Quesst Community Survey Campaign with the X-59 Aircraft

In its mission to expand knowledge and improve aviation, NASA conducts research to address sonic boom noise, the prime barrier to overland supersonic flight. For half a century, civilian aircraft have been required to fly slower than the speed of sound when over land to prevent sonic boom disturbances to communities under the flight path. However, lower noise levels may be achieved via new aircraft shaping techniques that reduce the merging of shockwaves generated during supersonic flight. As part of its Quesst mission, NASA is building a piloted, research aircraft called the X-59 to demonstrate low noise supersonic flight. After initial flight testing to ensure the aircraft performs as designed, NASA will begin a national campaign of supersonic flights over communities to collect data on how people perceive the sounds from this new design. The data collected will support the efforts of national and international noise regulators to develop new standards that would allow supersonic flight over land at low noise levels. This presentation summarizes the NASA Quesst community survey campaign and motivates key topics for focused technical discussions.

sonic boom↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Exercising Prediction Validation Methods for Analysis of Quiet Supersonic Overflight

En route noise certification procedures for quiet supersonic aircraft are in development under the International Civil Aviation Organization for a proposed standard that could enable civil supersonic overland flight. While these quiet supersonic aircraft do not exist yet, methods are being developed and evaluated using existing N-wave empirical datasets and low-boom simulation datasets. One potential aspect of future certification methods is the ability to use a validated prediction model to predict the certification noise level under reference day weather conditions. Methods to validate predictions, such as the two-sample t-test, Fisher’s combined probability test, two-sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, and equivalence testing, have been exercised and modified for this application. While some methods compare mean values, others compare values across the distribution, and a combination of methods can be used. The methods were applied to a subset of an N-wave dataset to demonstrate the applicability and identify potential areas for improvement. Atmospheric turbulence variability was included as a factor in these analyses through KZKFourier propagation simulations with parameters matching actual flights and weather conditions. Results are presented for six noise metrics (PL, ASEL, BSEL, DSEL, ESEL, and ISBAP), and plans to expand the analyses are discussed.

sonic boom↗