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Nathan P. Arnold

Publications and source records attributed to Nathan P. Arnold.

Accurate Assessment of Land-Atmosphere Coupling in Climate Models Requires High Frequency Data Output

Land-atmosphere (L-A) interactions are important for understanding convective processes, climate feedbacks, the development and perpetuation of droughts, heatwaves, pluvials, and other land-centred climate anomalies. Local L-A coupling (LoCo) metrics capture relevant L-A processes, highlighting the impact of soil and vegetation states on surface flux partitioning, and the impact of surface fluxes on boundary layer (BL) growth, development, and entrainment of air above the BL. A primary goal of the Climate Process Team on Coupling Land and Atmospheric Subgrid Parameterizations (CLASP) is parameterizing and characterizing the impact of subgrid heterogeneity in global and regional earth system models (ESMs) to improve the connection between land and atmospheric states and processes. A critical step in achieving that aim is the incorporation of L-A metrics, especially LoCo metrics, into climate model diagnostic process streams. However, because land-atmosphere interactions span time scales of minutes (e.g., turbulent fluxes), hours (e.g., BL growth and decay), days (e.g., soil moisture memory), and seasons (e.g., variability of behavioural regimes between soil moisture and latent heat flux), with multiple processes of interest happening in different geographic regions at different times of year, there is not a single metric that captures all the modes, means, and methods of interaction between the land and the atmosphere. And while monthly means of most of the LoCo-relevant variables are routinely saved from ESM simulations, data storage constraints typically preclude routine archival of the hourly data that would enable the calculation of all LoCo metrics. Here we outline a reasonable data request that would allow for adequate characterization of sub-daily coupling processes between the land and the atmosphere, preserving enough sub-daily output to describe, analyse, and better understand L-A coupling in modern climate models. A secondary request involves embedding calculations within the models to determine mean properties in and above the BL to further improve characterization of model behaviour. Higher-frequency model output will (i) allow for more direct comparison with observational field campaigns on process-relevant time scales, (ii) enable demonstration of inter-model spread in L-A coupling processes, and (iii) aid in targeted identification of sources of deficiencies and opportunities for improvement of the models.

Kirsten L. Findell↗

CERESMIP: A Climate Modeling Protocol to Investigate Recent Trends in the Earth's Energy Imbalance

The Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) project has now produced over two decades of observed data on the Earth's Energy Imbalance (EEI) and has revealed substantive trends in both the reflected shortwave and outgoing longwave top-of-atmosphere radiation components. Available climate model simulations suggest that these trends are incompatible with purely internal variability, but that the full magnitude and breakdown of the trends are outside of the model ranges. Unfortunately, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 6) (CMIP6) protocol only uses observed forcings to 2014 (and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) projections thereafter), and furthermore, many of the ‘observed' drivers have been updated substantially since the CMIP6 inputs were defined. Most notably, the sea surface temperature (SST) estimates have been revised and now show up to 50% greater trends since 1979, particularly in the southern hemisphere. Additionally, estimates of short-lived aerosol and gas-phase emissions have been substantially updated. These revisions will likely have material impacts on the model-simulated EEI. We therefore propose a new, relatively low-cost, model intercomparison, CERESMIP, that would target the CERES period (2000-present), with updated forcings to at least the end of 2021. The focus will be on atmosphere-only simulations, using updated SST, forcings and emissions from 1990 to 2021. The key metrics of interest will be the EEI and atmospheric feedbacks, and so the analysis will benefit from output from satellite cloud observation simulators. The Tier 1 request would consist only of an ensemble of AMIP-style simulations, while the Tier 2 request would encompass uncertainties in the applied forcing, atmospheric composition, single and all-but-one forcing responses. We present some preliminary results and invite participation from a wide group of models.

CMIP6↗

Cascading toward a Kilometer‐scale GCM: Impacts of a Scale‐aware Convection Parameterization in the Goddard Earth Observing System GCM.

The NASA Goddard Earth Observing System global model is evaluated through a cascade of simulations with increasing horizontal resolution. This model employs a non-hydrostatic dynamical core and includes a scale-aware, deep convection parameterization (DPCP). 40-daysimulations at six resolutions (100km to 3km) with unvarying model formulation were produced. At the highest resolution, extreme experiments were carried out; one with no DPCP, and one with its scale-awareness eliminated. Simulated precipitation, radiative balance, and atmospheric thermodynamic and dynamical variables are well reproduced with respect to both observational and reanalysis data. As model resolution increases, the convective precipitation smoothly transitions from being mostly produced by the convection parameterization to the cloud microphysics parameterization. However, contrary to current thought, these extreme cases argue for maintaining, to some extent, the scale-aware deep convection parameterization even at 3kmscale, as the run relying solely on explicit grid-scale production of rainfall performs more poorly at this resolution.

Saulo Freitas↗

Impact of Resolution and Parameterized Convection on the Diurnal Cycle of Precipitation in a Global Nonhydrostatic Model

A series of 40-day non-hydrostatic global simulations was run with the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model with horizontal grid spacing ranging from 50 km to 3.5 km. Here we evaluate the diurnal cycle of precipitation and organized convection as a function of resolution. For validation we use the TRMM 3B42 and IMERG precipitation products and 4 km Merged Infrared brightness temperature, focusing on three regions: the contiguous United States (CONUS), the Maritime Continent, and Amazonia. We find that higher resolution has mixed impacts on diurnal phase. Regions dominated by non-local propagating convection show the greatest improvement, with better representation of organized convective systems. Precipitation in regions dominated by local thermodynamic forcing tends to peak too early at high resolution. Diurnal amplitudes in all regions develop unrealistic small-scale variability at high resolution, while amplitudes tend to be underestimated at low resolution. The GEOS model uses the Grell-Freitas scale-aware convection scheme, which smoothly reduces parameterized deep convection with increasing resolution. We find that some parameterized convection is beneficial for the diurnal amplitude and phase even with a 3.5 km model grid, but only when throttled with the scale-aware approach. An additional 3.5 km experiment employing the GFDL microphysics scheme and higher vertical resolution shows further improvement in propagating convection, but an earlier rainfall peak in locally forced regions.

Nathan P. Arnold↗

Assimilation of PBL Height Data from Multiple Observing Systems in the GEOS System for Global PBL Height Analysis and Monitoring System

The Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) developed by the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office provides the critical capability to assimilate a wide range of observations in producing a comprehensive PBL estimate consistent with model physics and observations. To generate global Planetary Boundary Layer height (PBLH) analysis and monitor PBLH data online, we have developed strategy and infrastructure for PBLH data assimilation in the GEOS system and ingested PBLH data derived from multiple observing systems including radiosonde, space- and ground-based LiDAR, and GNSS RO, and implemented corresponding thinning and quality control procedures. The evaluation of departures of model PBLH simulations from PBLH data for the period of 9 days in Aug 2015 will be presented, and different features of space-based backscattered-based PBLHs will be discussed.

Eun-Gyeong Yang↗

Boundary Layer Data Assimilation and Interaction with Parameterizations in the NASA GEOS Model

The NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office develops the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS), which assimilates a wide range of observations to support medium range and seasonal forecasts and production of reanalyses like MERRA-2. In this talk we report on recent efforts to assimilate boundary layer (PBL) height observations derived from radiosondes, GNSS radio occultation, space-based lidar (CALIPSO, CATS, IceSat-2) and ground-based lidar (MPLNET). A novel component of this project includes examining the influence of model parameterizations on PBL profile estimates. We will discuss physics-based parameterizations of the PBL and how they may benefit or distort representation of PBL profiles in data assimilation. In particular, we consider the tendency of PBL parameterizations to compensate for analysis updates of state variables, effectively reducing the information retained from observations. We will present efforts to reduce this compensation in GEOS by using the PBL height analysis to adjust length scales used in the model PBL parameterizations.

Nathan P. Arnold↗

Evaluation of Planetary Boundary Layer Structure from NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office’s Next Retrospective Analysis Product MERRA-21C

The Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) is a complex interface between Earth’s surface and the atmosphere with high spatiotemporal variability in its characteristics, and accurate simulation and observation of the PBL has proven to be a challenge. In this study, we evaluate PBL structures from NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO)’s next retrospective analysis product: the Goddard Earth Observing System Retrospective Analysis of the early 21st Century (GEOS-R21C), with 25-km horizontal resolution. The GEOS-R21C incorporates a wide range of observing systems and various improvements over previous GMAO reanalysis. We compare the PBL thermodynamic structure as well as PBL Height (PBLH) from GEOS-R21C with various PBL observations. For PBLH, definitions are different depending on each observing system. PBLHs derived from radiosonde observations and Global Navigation Satellite System Radio Occultation (GNSS RO) are based on bulk Richardson number and refractivity gradient, respectively. The results of the evaluation of PBL structure from GMAO’s next retrospective analysis product will be presented. In addition, comparison between near-real-time (NRT) commercial and NASA commercial GNSS RO PBLH will also be discussed.

Eun-Gyeong Yang↗