Search NASA⌕ Search

Engineering topics

Nazarenko, Larissa

Publications and source records attributed to Nazarenko, Larissa.

12 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2018

Distinct Influences of Land Cover and Land Management on Seasonal Climate

Anthropogenic land use and land cover change is primarily represented in climate model simulations through prescribed transitions from natural vegetation to cropland or pasture. However, recent studies have demonstrated that land management practices, especially irrigation, have distinct climate impacts. Here we disentangle the seasonal climate impacts of land cover change and irrigation across areas of high agricultural intensity using climate simulations with three different land surface scenarios: (1) natural vegetation cover/no irrigation, (2) year 2000 crop cover/no irrigation, and (3) year 2000 crop cover and irrigation rates. We find that irrigation substantially amplifies land cover‐induced climate impacts but has opposing effects across certain regions. Irrigation mostly causes surface cooling, which substantially amplifies land cover change‐induced cooling in most regions except over Central, West, and South Asia, where it reverses land cover change‐induced warming. Despite increases in net surface radiation in some regions, this cooling is associated with enhancement of latent relative to sensible heat fluxes by irrigation. Similarly, irrigation substantially enhances the wetting influence of land cover change over several regions including West Asia and the Mediterranean. The most notable contrasting impacts of these forcings on precipitation occur over South Asia, where irrigation offsets the wetting influence of land cover during the monsoon season. Differential changes in regional circulations and moist static energy induced by these forcings contribute to their precipitation impacts and are associated with differential changes in surface and tropospheric temperature gradients and moisture availability. These results emphasize the importance of including irrigation forcing to evaluate the combined impacts of land surface changes for attributing historical climatic changes and managing future impacts.

Singh, Deepti↗
NASA NTRS2016

Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions Modulate Irrigation's Climate Impacts

Numerous studies have focused on the local and regional climate effects of irrigated agriculture and other land cover and land use change (LCLUC) phenomena, but there are few studies on the role of ocean- atmosphere interaction in modulating irrigation climate impacts. Here, we compare simulations with and without interactive sea surface temperatures of the equilibrium effect on climate of contemporary (year 2000) irrigation geographic extent and intensity. We find that ocean-atmosphere interaction does impact the magnitude of global-mean and spatially varying climate impacts, greatly increasing their global reach. Local climate effects in the irrigated regions remain broadly similar, while non-local effects, particularly over the oceans, tend to be larger. The interaction amplifies irrigation-driven standing wave patterns in the tropics and mid-latitudes in our simulations, approximately doubling the global-mean amplitude of surface temperature changes due to irrigation. The fractions of global area experiencing significant annual-mean surface air temperature and precipitation change also approximately double with ocean-atmosphere interaction. Subject to confirmation with other models, these findings imply that LCLUC is an important contributor to climate change even in remote areas such as the Southern Ocean, and that attribution studies should include interactive oceans and need to consider LCLUC, including irrigation, as a truly global forcing that affects climate and the water cycle over ocean as well as land areas.

Air water interactioins↗
NASA NTRS2015

Role of Clouds, Aerosols, and Aerosol-Cloud Interaction in 20th Century Simulations with GISS ModelE2

We use the new version of NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) climate model, modelE2 with 2º by 2.5º horizontal resolution and 40 vertical layers, with the model top at 0.1 hPa [Schmidt et al., 2014]. We use two different treatments of the atmospheric composition and aerosol indirect effect: (1) TCAD(I) version has fully interactive Tracers of Aerosols and Chemistry in both the troposphere and stratosphere. This model predicts total aerosol number and mass concentrations [Shindell et al., 2013]; (2) TCAM is the aerosol microphysics and chemistry model based on the quadrature methods of moments [Bauer et al., 2008]. Both TCADI and TCAM models include the first indirect effect of aerosols on clouds [Menon et al., 2010]; the TCAD model includes only the direct aerosol effect. We consider the results of the TCAD, TCADI and TCAM models coupled to "Russell ocean model" [Russell et al., 1995], E2-R. We examine the climate response for the "historical period" that include the natural and anthropogenic forcings for 1850 to 2012. The effect of clouds, their feedbacks, as well as the aerosol-cloud interactions are assessed for the transient climate change.

climate models↗
NASA NTRS2014

Volcanic Contribution to Decadal Changes in Tropospheric Temperature

Despite continued growth in atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases, global mean surface and tropospheric temperatures have shown slower warming since 1998 than previously. Possible explanations for the slow-down include internal climate variability, external cooling influences and observational errors. Several recent modelling studies have examined the contribution of early twenty-first-century volcanic eruptions to the muted surface warming. Here we present a detailed analysis of the impact of recent volcanic forcing on tropospheric temperature, based on observations as well as climate model simulations. We identify statistically significant correlations between observations of stratospheric aerosol optical depth and satellite-based estimates of both tropospheric temperature and short-wave fluxes at the top of the atmosphere. We show that climate model simulations without the effects of early twenty-first-century volcanic eruptions overestimate the tropospheric warming observed since 1998. In two simulations with more realistic volcanic influences following the 1991 Pinatubo eruption, differences between simulated and observed tropospheric temperature trends over the period 1998 to 2012 are up to 15% smaller, with large uncertainties in the magnitude of the effect. To reduce these uncertainties, better observations of eruption-specific properties of volcanic aerosols are needed, as well as improved representation of these eruption-specific properties in climate model simulations.

Atmospheric temperature↗
NASA NTRS2014

Configuration and Assessment of the GISS ModelE2 Contributions to the CMIP5 Archive

We present a description of the ModelE2 version of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) General Circulation Model (GCM) and the configurations used in the simulations performed for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). We use six variations related to the treatment of the atmospheric composition, the calculation of aerosol indirect effects, and ocean model component. Specifically, we test the difference between atmospheric models that have noninteractive composition, where radiatively important aerosols and ozone are prescribed from precomputed decadal averages, and interactive versions where atmospheric chemistry and aerosols are calculated given decadally varying emissions. The impact of the first aerosol indirect effect on clouds is either specified using a simple tuning, or parameterized using a cloud microphysics scheme. We also use two dynamic ocean components: the Russell and HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) which differ significantly in their basic formulations and grid. Results are presented for the climatological means over the satellite era (1980-2004) taken from transient simulations starting from the preindustrial (1850) driven by estimates of appropriate forcings over the 20th Century. Differences in base climate and variability related to the choice of ocean model are large, indicating an important structural uncertainty. The impact of interactive atmospheric composition on the climatology is relatively small except in regions such as the lower stratosphere, where ozone plays an important role, and the tropics, where aerosol changes affect the hydrological cycle and cloud cover. While key improvements over previous versions of the model are evident, these are not uniform across all metrics.

ocean model↗
NASA NTRS2013

Historical and Future Black Carbon Deposition on the Three Ice Caps: Ice Core Measurements and Model Simulations from 1850 to 2100

Ice core measurements in conjunction with climate model simulations are of tremendous value when examining anthropogenic and natural aerosol loads and their role in past and future climates. Refractory black carbon (BC) records from the Arctic, the Antarctic, and the Himalayas are analyzed using three transient climate simulations performed with the Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE. Simulations differ in aerosol schemes (bulk aerosols vs. aerosol microphysics) and ocean couplings (fully coupled vs. prescribed ocean). Regional analyses for past (1850-2005) and future (2005-2100) carbonaceous aerosol simulations focus on the Antarctic, Greenland, and the Himalayas. Measurements from locations in the Antarctic show clean conditions with no detectable trend over the past 150 years. Historical atmospheric deposition of BC and sulfur in Greenland shows strong trends and is primarily influenced by emissions from early twentieth century agricultural and domestic practices. Models fail to reproduce observations of a sharp eightfold BC increase in Greenland at the beginning of the twentieth century that could be due to the only threefold increase in the North American emission inventory. BC deposition in Greenland is about 10 times greater than in Antarctica and 10 times less than in Tibet. The Himalayas show the most complicated transport patterns, due to the complex terrain and dynamical regimes of this region. Projections of future climate based on the four CMIP5 Representative Concentration Pathways indicate further dramatic advances of pollution to the Tibetan Plateau along with decreasing BC deposition fluxes in Greenland and the Antarctic.

Antarctic Regions↗
NASA NTRS2013

Attribution of Historical Whole-atmosphere Ozone Forcing to Emissions

Anthropogenic ozone radiative forcing is traditionally separately attributed to tropospheric and stratospheric changes assuming these have distinct causes. Using the interactive composition-climate model GISS-E2-R we find that this assumption is not justified. Our simulations show that changes in emissions of tropospheric ozone precursors have substantial effects on ozone in both regions, as do anthropogenic halocarbon emissions. Based on our results, additional simulations with the NCARCAM3.5 model, and published studies, we estimate industrial era (1850 to 2005) whole-atmosphere ozone forcing of 0.5 W/sq m due to anthropogenic tropospheric precursors and about -0.2 W/sq m due to halocarbons. The net troposphere plus stratosphere forcing is similar to the net halocarbon plus precursor ozone forcing, but the latter provides a more useful perspective. The halocarbon-induced ozone forcing is roughly two-thirds the magnitude of the halocarbon direct forcing but opposite in sign, yielding a net forcing of only 0.1 W/sq m. Thus the net effect of halocarbons has been smaller, while the effect of tropospheric ozone precursors has been greater, than generally recognized.

Shindell, Drew↗
NASA NTRS2012

The Tropical Subseasonal Variability Simulated in the NASA GISS General Circulation Model

The tropical subseasonal variability simulated by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation model, Model E2, is examined. Several versions of Model E2 were developed with changes to the convective parameterization in order to improve the simulation of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO). When the convective scheme is modified to have a greater fractional entrainment rate, Model E2 is able to simulate MJO-like disturbances with proper spatial and temporal scales. Increasing the rate of rain reevaporation has additional positive impacts on the simulated MJO. The improvement in MJO simulation comes at the cost of increased biases in the mean state, consistent in structure and amplitude with those found in other GCMs when tuned to have a stronger MJO. By reinitializing a relatively poor-MJO version with restart files from a relatively better-MJO version, a series of 30-day integrations is constructed to examine the impacts of the parameterization changes on the organization of tropical convection. The poor-MJO version with smaller entrainment rate has a tendency to allow convection to be activated over a broader area and to reduce the contrast between dry and wet regimes so that tropical convection becomes less organized. Besides the MJO, the number of tropical-cyclone-like vortices simulated by the model is also affected by changes in the convection scheme. The model simulates a smaller number of such storms globally with a larger entrainment rate, while the number increases significantly with a greater rain reevaporation rate.

Kim, Daehyun↗
NASA NTRS2011

New Gravity Wave Treatments for GISS Climate Models

Previous versions of GISS climate models have either used formulations of Rayleigh drag to represent unresolved gravity wave interactions with the model-resolved flow or have included a rather complicated treatment of unresolved gravity waves that, while being climate interactive, involved the specification of a relatively large number of parameters that were not well constrained by observations and also was computationally very expensive. Here, the authors introduce a relatively simple and computationally efficient specification of unresolved orographic and nonorographic gravity waves and their interaction with the resolved flow. Comparisons of the GISS model winds and temperatures with no gravity wave parameterization; with only orographic gravity wave parameterization; and with both orographic and nonorographic gravity wave parameterizations are shown to illustrate how the zonal mean winds and temperatures converge toward observations. The authors also show that the specifications of orographic and nonorographic gravity waves must be different in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. Then results are presented where the nonorographic gravity wave sources are specified to represent sources from convection in the intertropical convergence zone and spontaneous emission from jet imbalances. Finally, a strategy to include these effects in a climate-dependent manner is suggested.

Geller, Marvin A.↗
NASA NTRS2010

New Gravity Wave Treatments for GISS Climate Models

Previous versions of GISS climate models have either used formulations of Rayleigh drag to represent unresolved gravity wave interactions with the model resolved flow or have included a rather complicated treatment of unresolved gravity waves that, while being climate interactive, involved the specification of a relatively large number of parameters that were not well constrained by observations and also was computationally very expensive. Here, we introduce a relatively simple and computationally efficient specification of unresolved orographic and non-orographic gravity waves and their interaction with the resolved flow. We show comparisons of the GISS model winds and temperatures with no gravity wave parametrization; with only orographic gravity wave parameterization; and with both orographic and non-orographic gravity wave parameterizations to illustrate how the zonal mean winds and temperatures converge toward observations. We also show that the specifications of orographic and nonorographic gravity waves must be different in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. We then show results where the non-orographic gravity wave sources are specified to represent sources from convection in the Intertropical Convergence Zone and spontaneous emission from jet imbalances. Finally, we suggest a strategy to include these effects in a climate dependent manner.

Geller, Marvin A.↗