Engineering topics

Nelkin, Eric

Publications and source records attributed to Nelkin, Eric.

At least 37 records · Page 2

NASA NTRS2002

Global Precipitation Analyses at Monthly to 3-HR Time Scales

Global precipitation analysis covering the last few decades and the impact of the new TRMM precipitation observations are discussed. The 20+ year, monthly, globally complete precipitation analysis of the World Climate Research Program's (WCRP/GEWEX) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) is used to explore global and regional variations and trends and is compared to the much shorter TRMM(Tropica1 Rainfall Measuring Mission) tropical data set. A trend pattern that is a combination of both El Nino and La Nina precipitation features is evident in the 20-year data set. This pattern is related to an increase with time in the number of combined months of El Nino and La Nina during the 20 year period. Monthly anomalies of precipitation are related to ENSO variations with clear signals extending into middle and high latitudes of both hemispheres. The GPCP daily, 1deg latitude-longitude analysis, which is available from January 1997 to the present is described and the evolution of precipitation patterns on this time scale related to El Nino and La Nina is described. Finally, a TRMM-based 3-hr analysis is described that uses TRMM to calibrate polar-orbit microwave observations from SSM/I and geosynchronous IR observations and merges the various calibrated observations into a final, 3-hr resolution map. This TRMM standard product will soon be available for the entire TRMM period (January 1998- present). A real-time version of this merged product is being produced and is available at 0.25deg latitude-longitude resolution over the latitude range from 50degN-50degS. Images from this data set can be seen at the U.S. TRMM web site (trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov). Examples will be shown, including its use in monitoring flood conditions and relating weather-scale events to climate variations.

Adler, Robert F.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Global Precipitation Analyses (3-Hourly to Monthly) Using TRMM, SSM/I and other Satellite Information

Global precipitation analysis covering the last few decades and the impact of the new TRMM precipitation observations are discussed. The 20+ year, monthly, globally complete precipitation analysis of the World Climate Research Program's (WCRP/GEWEX) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) is used to explore global and regional variations and trends and is compared to the much shorter TRMM(Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) tropical data set. The GPCP data set shows no significant trend in precipitation over the twenty years, unlike the positive trend in global surface temperatures over the past century. Regional trends are also analyzed. A trend pattern that is a combination of both El Nino and La Nina precipitation features is evident in the 20-year data set. This pattern is related to an increase with time in the number of combined months of El Nino and La Nina during the 20 year period. Monthly anomalies of precipitation are related to ENS0 variations with clear signals extending into middle and high latitudes of both hemispheres. The GPCP daily, 1 deg. latitude-longitude analysis, which is available from January 1997 to the present is described and the evolution of precipitation patterns on this time scale related to El Nino and La Nina is discussed. Finally, a TRMM-based 3-hr analysis is described that uses TRMM to calibrate polar-orbit microwave observations from SSM/I and geosynchronous IR observations and merges the various calibrated observations into a final, 3-hr resolution map. This TRMM standard product will be available for the entire TRMM period (January 1998-present). A real-time version of this merged product is being produced and is available at 0.25 deg. latitude-longitude resolution over the latitude range from 5O deg. N-50 deg. S. Examples are shown, including its use in monitoring flood conditions.

Adler, Robert F.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Monitoring Global Precipitation Using Satellite Observations: Status and Future

The current status of monitoring global precipitation amounts and patterns is described using data sets from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) of the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) and from recent research satellites, especially the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). The GPCP monthly (and pentad) data set is a 23-year, globally complete precipitation analysis that is used to explore global and regional variations and trends. The data set is a blend of data mainly from low-orbit microwave satellites and geosynchronous infrared satellites, with additional input from satellite sounder data, Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) data and raingauges. The monthly GPCP data set shows no significant global trend in precipitation over the twenty years, unlike the positive trend in global surface temperatures over the past century. Regional trends are also analyzed. A trend pattern that is a combination of both El Nino and La Nina precipitation features is evident in the 23-year data set. This pattern is related to an increase with time in the number of combined months of El Nino and La Nina during the 23-year period. This apparent trend may be a short-term variation, but also might be related to the increase with time of extreme precipitation events reported elsewhere. Patterns of precipitation variation related to ENSO and other phenomena are shown with clear signals extending from the Tropics into middle and high latitudes of both hemispheres. Also shown, as an example of higher time resolution data is the GPCP daily analysis, which is available for the last six years. A second focus of the talk is on TRMM precipitation data and how these newer data sets incorporating information from the first space-borne meteorological radar compare with the established GPCP data sets.

Adler, Robert F.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Use of TRMM Rainfall Information in Improving Long-Term, Satellite-Based Global Precipitation Analyses

The TRMM rainfall products are inter-compared among themselves and to the 23 year, monthly, globally complete precipitation analysis of the World Climate Research Program's (WCRP/ GEWEX) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). Ways in which the TRMM-based estimates can be used to improve the long-term data set are described. These include improvement of the passive microwave algorithm that is applied to the 15 year SSM/I record and calibration or adjustment of the current GPCP fields utilizing the 4-5 year overlap of TRMM and GPCP. A comparison of the GPCP monthly surface precipitation fields and the TRMM-based multi-satellite analyses indicates that the two are similar, but have significant differences that relate to the different input data sets. Although on a zonal average basis over the ocean the two analyses are similar in the deep Tropics, there are subtle differences between the eastern and western Pacific Ocean in the relative magnitudes. In mid-latitudes the GPCP has somewhat larger mean precipitation than TRMM. Statistical comparisons of TRMM and GPCP monthly fields are carried out in terms of histogram matching for both ocean and land regions and for small areas to diagnose differences. These comparisons form the basis for a TRMM calibration of the GPCP fields using matched histograms over regional areas as a function of season. Although final application of this procedure will likely await the Version 6 of the TRMM products, tests using Version 5 are shown that provide a TRMM-calibrated GPCP version that will produce an improved climatology and a more accurate month-to-month precipitation analysis for the last 20 years.

Starr, David OC.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Version 2 Goddard Satellite-Based Surface Turbulent Fluxes (GSSTF2)

The global air-sea fluxes of momentum, latent and sensible heat, radiation, and freshwater (precipitation-evaporation) are required for driving Ocean models and validating coupled ocean- atmosphere global models. Wind stress is the major forcing for driving the oceanic circulation, while evaporation is a key component of hydrological cycle and surface heat budget. We have produced a 13.5-year (July 1987-December 2000) dataset containing daily, monthly, and climatological surface fluxes of momentum, latent and sensible heat over the global Oceans from the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) radiance easurements. This dataset is called version 2 Goddard Satellite-based Surface Turbulent Fluxes (GSSTF-2). The GSSW-2 has a spatial resolution of 1.0deg x 1.0deg lat-long. In addition, evaporation has been combined with the satellite-retrieved precipitation to produce monthly freshwater fluxes over the global Ocean for the same period. Daily turbulent fluxes are derived from the S S M surface winds and surface air humidity, and 2-m air and sea surface temperatures (SST) of the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, using an improved stability-dependent bulk flux algorithm based on the surface layer similarity theory. Hourly fluxes computed from the GSSTF-2 bulk flux algorithm using the observed hourly input variables validate well against those of ten experiments observed by the research ships over the tropical and midlatitude oceans. In addition, daily wind stresses, latent heat fluxes, wind speeds, surface air humidity and SSTs of the GSSTF-2 compare reasonably well with those of the collocated in situ measurements of the ten experiments. The global distributions of 1988-2000 annual- and seasonal-mean turbulent fluxes show reasonable patterns related to the atmospheric general circulation and its seasonal variations. The comparison of zonally-averaged wind stress and latent heat fluxes of the GSSTF-2 with those of other satellite products as well as the NCEPNCAR and ECMWF reanalyses for the annual mean and seasonal variations during 1992-93 will be discussed. .

Chou, Shu-Hsien↗

NASA NTRS2001

The Magnitude and Variability of Global and Regional Precipitation Based on the 22-Year GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project) and Three-Year TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) Data Sets

This paper gives an overview of the analysis of global precipitation over the last few decades and the impact of the new TRMM precipitation observations. The 20+ year, monthly, globally complete precipitation analysis of the World Climate Research Program's (WCRP/GEWEX) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) is used to study global and regional variations and trends and is compared to the much shorter TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) tropical data set. The GPCP data set shows no significant trend in precipitation over the twenty years, unlike the positive trend in global surface temperatures over the past century. The global trend analysis must be interpreted carefully, however, because the inhomogeneity of the data set makes detecting a small signal very difficult, especially over this relatively short period. Identifying regional trends in precipitation may be more practical. From 1979 to 1999 the northern mid-latitudes appear to be drying, the southern mid-latitudes have gotten wetter, and there is a mixed signal in the tropics. The relation between this field of trends and the relation to the frequency of El Nino events during this time period is explored. Monthly anomalies of precipitation are related to ENSO variations with clear signals extending into middle and high latitudes of both hemispheres. The El Nino and La Nina mean anomalies are near mirror images of each other and when combined produce an ENSO signal with significant spatial continuity over large distances. These El Nino minus La Nina composites of normalized precipitation show the usual positive, or wet, anomaly over the central and eastern Pacific Ocean with the negative, or dry, anomaly over the maritime continent along with an additional negative anomaly over Brazil and the Atlantic Ocean extending into Africa and a positive anomaly over the Horn of Africa and the western Indian Ocean. A number of the features are shown to extend into high latitudes. Positive anomalies extend in the Southern Hemisphere (S.H.) from the Pacific southeastward across Chile and Argentina into the south Atlantic Ocean. In the Northern Hemisphere (N.H.) the counterpart feature extends across the southern US and Atlantic Ocean into Europe. Further to the west a negative anomaly extends southeastward again from the Maritime Continent across the South Pacific and through the Drake Passage. The N.H. counterpart crosses the North Pacific and southern Canada. In the Southern Hemisphere an anomaly feature is shown to spiral into the Antarctica land mass. The extremes of ENSO-related anomalies are also examined and indicate that globally, during both El Nino and La Nina, more extremes of precipitation ( both wet and dry) occur than during the "neutral" regime, with the El Nino regime showing larger magnitudes. The distribution is different for the globe as a whole and when the area is restricted to just land. The recent (1998-present) TRMM observations are compared with the similar period of GPCP analyses with very good agreement in terms of pattern and generally good agreement with regard to magnitude. However, there still are differences among the individual TRMM products using passive and active microwave techniques and these need to be resolved before longer-term products such as the GPCP analyses can be validated.

Adler, Robert F.↗

NASA NTRS2001

A 7.5-Year Dataset of SSM/I-Derived Surface Turbulent Fluxes Over Global Oceans

The surface turbulent fluxes of momentum, latent heat, and sensible heat over global oceans are essential to weather, climate and ocean problems. Wind stress is the major forcing for driving the oceanic circulation, while Evaporation is a key component of hydrological cycle and surface heat budget. We have produced a 7.5-year (July 1987-December 1994) dataset of daily, individual monthly-mean and climatological (1988-94) monthly-mean surface turbulent fluxes over the global oceans from measurements of the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) on board the US Defense Meteorological Satellite Program F8, F10, and F11 satellites. It has a spatial resolution of 2.0x2.5 latitude-longitude. Daily turbulent fluxes are derived from daily data of SSM/I surface winds and specific humidity, National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) sea surface temperatures, and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) air-sea temperature differences, using a stability-dependent bulk scheme. The retrieved instantaneous surface air humidity (with a 25-km resolution) IS found to be generally accurate as compared to the collocated radiosonde observations over global oceans. The surface wind speed and specific humidity (latent heat flux) derived from the F10 SSM/I are found to be -encrally smaller (larger) than those retrieved from the F11 SSM/I. The F11 SSM/I appears to have slightly better retrieval accuracy for surface wind speed and humidity as compared to the F10 SSM/I. This difference may be due to the orbital drift of the F10 satellite. The daily wind stresses and latent heat fluxes retrieved from F10 and F11 SSM/Is show useful accuracy as verified against the research quality in si -neasurerrients (IMET buoy, RV Moana Wave, and RV Wecoma) in the western Pacific warm pool during the TOGA COARE Intensive observing period (November 1992-February 1993). The 1988-94 seasonal-mean turbulent fluxes and input variables derived from FS and F11 SSM/Is show reasonable patterns related to seasonal variations of atmospheric general circulation. This dataset of SSM/I-derived turbulent fluxes is useful for climate studies, forcing of ocean models, and validation of coupled ocean-atmosphere global models and can be accessed through the NASA/GSFC Distributed Active Archive Center.

Chou, Shu-Hsien↗

NASA NTRS2001

A Multilayer Dataset of SSM/I-Derived Global Ocean Surface Turbulent Fluxes

A dataset including daily- and monthly-mean turbulent fluxes (momentum, latent heat, and sensible heat) and some relevant parameters over global oceans, derived from the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) data, for the period July 1987-December 1994 and the 1988-94 annual and monthly-mean climatologies of the same variables is created. It has a spatial resolution of 2.0deg x 2.5deg latitude-longitude. The retrieved surface air humidity is found to be generally accurate as compared to the collocated radiosonde observations over global oceans. The retrieved wind stress and latent heat flux show useful accuracy as verified against research quality measurements of ship and buoy in the western equatorial Pacific. The 1988-94 seasonal-mean wind stress and latent heat flux show reasonable patterns related to seasonal variations of the atmospheric general circulation. The patterns of 1990-93 annual-mean turbulent fluxes and input variables are generally in good agreement with one of the best global analyzed flux datasets that based on COADS (comprehensive ocean-atmosphere data set) with corrections on wind speeds and covered the same period. The retrieved wind speed is generally within +/-1 m/s of the COADS-based, but is stronger by approx. 1-2 m/s in the northern extratropical oceans. The discrepancy is suggested to be mainly due to higher COADS-modified wind speeds resulting from underestimation of anemometer heights. Compared to the COADS-based, the retrieved latent heat flux and sea-air humidity difference are generally larger with significant differences in the trade wind zones and the ocean south of 40degS (up to approx. 40-60 W/sq m and approx. 1-1.5 g/kg). The discrepancy is believed to be mainly caused by higher COADS-based surface air humidity arising from the overestimation of dew point temperatures and from the extrapolation of observed high humidity southward into data-void regions south of 40degS. The retrieved sensible heat flux is generally within +/-5 W/sq m of UWM/COADS, except for some areas in the extratropical oceans, where the differences in wind speed have large impact on the difference in sensible heat flux. The dataset of SSM/I-derived turbulent fluxes is useful for climate studies, forcing of ocean models, and validation of coupled ocean-atmosphere global models.

Chou, Shu-Hsien↗

NASA NTRS2001

Global Monthly and Daily Precipitation Analysis for the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP): Global and Regional Variations and Trends

The 22 year, monthly, globally complete precipitation analysis of the World Climate Research Program's (WCRP/GEWEX) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) and the four year (1997-present) daily GPCP analysis are described in terms of the data sets and analysis techniques used in their preparation. These analyses are then used to study global and regional variations and trends during the 22 years and the shorter-time scale events that constitute those variations. The GPCP monthly data set shows no significant trend in global precipitation over the twenty years, unlike the positive trend in global surface temperatures over the past century. The global trend analysis must be interpreted carefully, however, because the inhomogeneity of the data set makes detecting a small signal very difficult, especially over this relatively short period. The relation of global (and tropical) total precipitation and ENSO (El Nino and Southern Oscillation) events is quantified with no significant signal when land and ocean are combined. In terms of regional trends 1979 to 2000 the tropics have a distribution of regional rainfall trends that has an ENSO-like pattern with features of both the El Nino and La Nina. This feature is related to a possible trend in the frequency of ENSO events (either El Nino or La Nina) over the past 20 years. Monthly anomalies of precipitation are related to ENSO variations with clear signals extending into middle and high latitudes of both hemispheres. The El Nino and La Nina mean anomalies are near mirror images of each other and when combined produce an ENSO signal with significant spatial continuity over large distances. A number of the features are shown to extend into high latitudes. Positive anomalies extend in the Southern Hemisphere from the Pacific southeastward across Chile and Argentina into the south Atlantic Ocean. In the Northern Hemisphere the counterpart feature extends across the southern U.S. and Atlantic Ocean into Europe. In the Southern Hemisphere an anomaly feature is shown to spiral into the Antarctica land mass. The extremes of ENSO-related anomalies are also examined and indicate that globally, during both El Nino and La Nina, more extremes of precipitation (both wet and dry) occur than during the "neutral" regime, with the El Nino regime showing larger magnitudes. The distribution is different for the globe as a whole and when the area is restricted to just land. The recent (1998-present) Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) observations are also compared with the GPCP analyses and are evaluated with regard to improving the long-term GPCP data set.

Adler, Robert F.↗

NASA NTRS2001

A Multiyear Dataset of SSM/I-Derived Global Ocean Surface Turbulent Fluxes

The surface turbulent fluxes of momentum, latent heat, and sensible heat over global oceans are essential to weather, climate and ocean problems. Evaporation is a key component of the hydrological cycle and the surface heat budget, while the wind stress is the major forcing for driving the oceanic circulation. The global air-sea fluxes of momentum, latent and sensible heat, radiation, and freshwater (precipitation-evaporation) are the forcing for driving oceanic circulation and, hence, are essential for understanding the general circulation of global oceans. The global air-sea fluxes are required for driving ocean models and validating coupled ocean-atmosphere global models. We have produced a 7.5-year (July 1987-December 1994) dataset of daily surface turbulent fluxes over the global oceans from the Special Sensor microwave/Imager (SSM/I) data. Daily turbulent fluxes were derived from daily data of SSM/I surface winds and specific humidity, National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) sea surface temperatures, and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) air-sea temperature differences, using a stability-dependent bulk scheme. The retrieved instantaneous surface air humidity (with a 25-km resolution) validated well with that of the collocated radiosonde observations over the global oceans. Furthermore, the retrieved daily wind stresses and latent heat fluxes were found to agree well with that of the in situ measurements (IMET buoy, RV Moana Wave, and RV Wecoma) in the western Pacific warm pool during the TOGA COARE intensive observing period (November 1992-February 1993). The global distributions of 1988-94 seasonal-mean turbulent fluxes will be presented. In addition, the global distributions of 1990-93 annual-means turbulent fluxes and input variables will be compared with those of UWM/COADS covering the same period. The latter is based on the COADS (comprehensive ocean-atmosphere data set) and is recognized to be one of the best climatological analyses of fluxes derived from ship observations.

Chou, Shu-Hsien↗

NASA NTRS2001

A 7.5-Year Dataset of SSM/I-Derived Surface Turbulent Fluxes Over Global Oceans

The global air-sea turbulent fluxes are needed for driving ocean models and validating coupled ocean-atmosphere global models. A method was developed to retrieve surface air humidity from the radiances measured by the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) Using both SSM/I-retrieved surface wind and air humidity, they computed daily turbulent fluxes over global oceans with a stability-dependent bulk scheme. Based on this method, we have produced Version 1 of Goddard Satellite-Based Surface Turbulent Fluxes (GSSTF) dataset from the SSM/I data and other data. It provides daily- and monthly-mean surface turbulent fluxes and some relevant parameters over global oceans for individual F8, F10, and F11 satellites covering the period July 1987-December 1994. It also provides 1988-94 annual- and monthly-mean climatologies of the same variables, using only F8 and F1 1 satellite data. It has a spatial resolution of 2.0 degrees x 2.5 degrees lat-long and is archived at the NASA/GSFC DAAC. The purpose of this paper is to present an updated assessment of the GSSTF 1.0 dataset.

Chou, Shu-Hsien↗

NASA NTRS2001

Variations and Trends in Global and Regional Precipitation Based on the 22-Year GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project) and Three-Year TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) Data Sets

This paper gives an overview of the analysis of global precipitation over the last few decades and the impact of the new TRMM precipitation observations. The 20+ year, monthly, globally complete precipitation analysis of the World Climate Research Program's (WCRP/GEWEX) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) is used to study global and regional variations and trends and is compared to the much shorter TRMM(Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) tropical data set. The GPCP data set shows no significant trend in global precipitation over the twenty years, unlike the positive trend in global surface temperatures over the past century. The global trend analysis must be interpreted carefully, however, because the inhomogeneity of the data set makes detecting a small signal very difficult, especially over this relatively short period. The relation of global (and tropical) total precipitation and ENSO events is quantified with no significant signal when land and ocean are combined. Identifying regional trends in precipitation may be more practical. From 1979 to 2000 the tropics have pattern of regional rainfall trends that has an ENSO-like pattern with features of both the El Nino and La Nina. This feature is related to a possible trend in the frequency of ENSO events (either El Nino or La Nina) over the past 20 years. Monthly anomalies of precipitation are related to ENSO variations with clear signals extending into middle and high latitudes of both hemispheres. The El Nino and La Nina mean anomalies are near mirror images of each other and when combined produce an ENSO signal with significant spatial continuity over large distances. A number of the features are shown to extend into high latitudes. Positive anomalies extend in the Southern Hemisphere (S.H.) from the Pacific southeastward across Chile and Argentina into the south Atlantic Ocean. In the Northern Hemisphere (N.H.) the counterpart feature extends across the southern U.S. and Atlantic Ocean into Europe. Further to the west a negative anomaly extends southeastward again from the Maritime Continent across the South Pacific and through the Drake Passage. In the Southern Hemisphere an anomaly feature is shown to spiral into the Antarctica land mass. The extremes of ENSO-related anomalies are also examined and indicate that globally, during both El Nino and La Nina, more extremes of precipitation (both wet and dry) occur than during the "neutral" regime, with the El Nino regime showing larger magnitudes. The distribution is different for the globe as a whole and when the area is restricted to just land. The recent (1998-present) TRMM observations are compared with the similar period of GPCP analyses with very good agreement in terms of pattern and generally good agreement with regard to magnitude. However, there still are differences among the individual TRMM products using passive and active microwave techniques and these need to be resolved before longer-term products such as the GPCP analyses can be validated.

Adler, Robert F.↗

NASA NTRS2001

TRMM: Science Highlights and Status of Precipitation Estimates on Monthly and Finer Time Scales

The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) has completed three years in orbit. A summary of research highlights will be presented focusing on application of TRMM data to topics ranging from climate analysis, through improving forecasts, to microphysical research. Monthly surface rainfall estimates Over the ocean based on different instruments on TRMM currently differ by 20%. The difference is not surprising considering the different type of observations available for the first time from TRMM with both the passive and active microwave sensors. Resolving this difference will strengthen the validity and utility of ocean rainfall estimates and is the topic of ongoing research utilizing various facets of the TRMM validation and field experiment programs. The TRMM rainfall estimates are intercompared among themselves and with other estimates, including those of the standard, monthly Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) analysis. The GPCP analysis agrees roughly in magnitude with the passive microwave-based TRMM estimates which is not surprising considering GPCP over-ocean estimates are based on passive microwave observations. A three-year TRMM rainfall climatology is presented based on the TRMM merged product, including anomaly fields related to the changing ENSO situation during the mission. Results of merging TRMM, other passive microwave observations, and geosynchronous infrared rainfall estimates into a global, tropical 3-hour time resolution analysis will also be described.

Adler, Robert↗

NASA NTRS2000

Evolution of Tropical and Extratropical Precipitation Anomalies During the 1997 to 1999 ENSO Cycle

The 1997-1999 ENSO period was very powerful, but also well observed. Multiple satellite rainfall estimates combined with gauge observations allow for a quantitative analysis of precipitation anomalies in the tropics and elsewhere accompanying the 1997-99 ENSO cycle. An examination of the evolution of the El Nino and accompanying precipitation anomalies revealed that a dry Maritime Continent preceded the formation of positive SST anomalies in the eastern Pacific Ocean. 30-60 day oscillations in the winter of 1996/97 may have contributed to this lag relationship. Furthermore, westerly wind burst events may have maintained the drought over the Maritime Continent. The warming of the equatorial Pacific was then followed by an increase in convection. A rapid transition from El Nino to La Nina occurred in May 1998, but as early as October-November 1997 precipitation indices captured substantial changes in Pacific rainfall anomalies. The global precipitation patterns for this event were in good agreement with the strong consistent ENSO-related precipitation signals identified in earlier studies. Differences included a shift in precipitation anomalies over Africa during the 1997-98 El Nino and unusually wet conditions over northeast Australia during the later stages of the El Nino. Also, the typically wet region in the north tropical Pacific was mostly dry during the 1998-99 La Nina. Reanalysis precipitation was compared to observations during this time period and substantial differences were noted. In particular, the model had a bias towards positive precipitation anomalies and the magnitudes of the anomalies in the equatorial Pacific were small compared to the observations. Also, the evolution of the precipitation field, including the drying of the Maritime Continent and eastward progression of rainfall in the equatorial Pacific was less pronounced for the model compared to the observations.

Curtis, Scott↗

NASA NTRS1999

Climatic Variability of Precipitation from the Seasonal Cycle to ENSO Using GPCP's Merged Data Product and SSM/I-Based Microwave Estimates

Satellite estimates and gauge observations of precipitation are useful in understanding the water cycle, analyzing climatic variability, and validating climate models. The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) released a community merged precipitation data set for the period July 1987 through the present, and has recently extended that data set back to 1986. One objective of this study is to use GPCP estimates to describe and quantify the seasonal variation of precipitation, with emphasis on the Asian summer monsoon. Another focus is the 1997-98 El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and associated extreme precipitation events. The summer monsoon tends to be drier than normal in El Nino ears. This was not observed for 1997 or 1998, while for 1997 the NCEP model produced the largest summer rain rates over India in years. This inconsistency will be examined. The average annual global precipitation rate is 2.7 mm day as estimated by GPCP, which is similar to values computed from long-term climatologies. From 30 deg N to 30 deg S the average precipitation rate is 2.7 mm day over land with a maximum in the annual cycle occurring in February-March, when the Amazon basin receives abundant rainfall. The average precipitation rate is 3.1 mm day over the tropical oceans, with a peak earlier in the season (November-December), corresponding with the transition from a strong Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) from June to November to a strong South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) from December to March. The seasonal evolution of C, C, the Asian summer monsoon stands out with rains in excess of 15 mm day off the coast of Burma in June. The GPROF pentad data also captures the onset of the tropical Pacific rainfall patterns associated with the 1997-98 ENSO. From February to October 1997 at least four rain-producing systems traveled from West to East in the equatorial corridor. A rapid transition from El Nino to La Nina conditions occurred in May-June 1998. GPCP and GPROF were used to construct precipitation-based ENSO indices to monitor El Ninos (EL) and La Ninas and (LI).

Curtis, Scott↗

NASA NTRS1999

Tropical Rainfall Analysis Using TRMM in Combination With Other Satellite Gauge Data: Comparison with Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Results

This paper describes recent results of using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) information as the key calibration tool in a merged analysis on a 1 deg x 1 deg latitude/longitude monthly scale based on multiple satellite sources and raingauge analysis. The procedure used to produce the GPCP data set is a stepwise approach which first combines the satellite low-orbit microwave and geosynchronous IR observations into a "multi-satellite" product and than merges that result with the raingauge analysis. Preliminary results produced with the still-stabilizing TRMM algorithms indicate that TRMM shows tighter spatial gradients in tropical rain maxima with higher peaks in the center of the maxima. The TRMM analyses will be used to evaluate the evolution of the 1998 ENSO variations, again in comparison with the GPCP analyses.

Adler, Robert F.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Comparison of TRMM and Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Precipitation Analyses

This paper describes recent results of using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) (launched in November 1997) information as the key calibration tool in a merged analysis on a 1 x 1' latitude/longitude monthly scale based on multiple satellite sources and raingauge analyses. The TRMM-based product is compared with the community-based Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) results. The long-term GPCP analysis is compared to the new TRMM-based analysis which uses the most accurate TRMM information to calibrate the estimates from the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) and geosynchronous IR observations and merges those estimates together with the TRMM and gauge information to produce accurate rainfall estimates with the increased sampling provided by the combined satellite information. The comparison with TRMM results on a month-to-month basis should clarify the strengths and weaknesses of the long-term GPCP product in the tropics and point to how to improve the monitoring analysis. Preliminary results from the TRMM merged satellite analysis indicates fairly close agreement with the GPCP estimates. The GPCP analysis is done at 2.5 degree latitude/longitude resolution and interpolated to a 1 degree grid for comparison with the TRMM analysis. As expected the same features are evident in both panels, but there are subtle differences in the magnitudes. Focusing on the Pacific Ocean Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) one can see the TRMM-based estimates having higher peak values and lower values in the ITCZ periphery. These attributes also show up in the statistics, where GPCP>TRMM at low values (below 10 mm/d) and TRMM>GPCP at high values (greater than 15 mm/d). The area in the Indian Ocean which shows consistently higher values of TRMM over GPCP needs to be examined carefully to determine if the lack of geosynchronous data has led to a difference in the two analyses. By the time of the meeting over a year of TRMM products will be available for comparison. Global tropical and regional values will be compared. Both products will be compared to TRMM validation site data over land and water. The results should begin to determine the use of the TRMM estimates in the evaluation of the GPCP analysis.

Adler, Robert F.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Global Monitoring of Precipitation on Monthly and Shorter Time Scales Utilizing Low-Orbit and Geosynchronous Satellite Observations

A satellite-based system to monitor global precipitation on monthly and shorter time scales is described. The monitoring system is based primarily on the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) global, monthly, 2.5 degree by 2.5 degree latitude-longitude product which utilizes precipitation estimates from low-orbit microwave sensors (SSM/I) and geosynchronous IR sensors and raingauge information over land. The low-orbit microwave estimates are used to adjust or correct the geosynchronous IR estimates, thereby maximizing the utility of the more physically-based microwave estimates and the finer time sampling of the geosynchronous observations. Information from raingauges is blended into the analyses over land. This globally complete, monthly product is available from January 1986 to the present, with an extension back to January 1979 underway using non-SSM/I data. The monthly GPCP merged data product described in the previous paragraph is available a few (2-4) months after the end of the month. An analysis based solely on low-orbit microwave (SSM/1) data and the Goddard Profiling (GPROF) algorithm is used to bring the global monitoring up to real time. Anomalies from climatological means are produced from both the GPCP and GPROF fields to monitor the evolution of global precipitation, including the calculation of ENSO precipitation indices for real-time (five- day running means) climate monitoring and comparison with previous ENSO anomalies. The long-term climatology of the global precipitation field and the time and space variations thereof will be discussed, including the variations associated with the 1997- 1998 ENSO. The GPCP fields will also be compared to analyses based on the recently launched Tropical Rain Measuring Mission (TRMM). On an even shorter time scale, a new daily, 1 degree x 1 degree latitude-longitude global analysis has been developed starting in January 1997 utilizing low-orbit microwave and geosynchronous IR information using a similar method as is used to produce the monthly GPCP product. Retaining the overall small bias of the monthly product the daily product will allow greater utilization in the hydrology and other science communities.

Adler, Robert↗