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Nepstad, Daniel C.

Publications and source records attributed to Nepstad, Daniel C..

Abrupt Increases in Amazonian Tree Mortality Due to Drought-Fire Interactions

Interactions between climate and land-use change may drive widespread degradation of Amazonian forests. High-intensity fires associated with extreme weather events could accelerate this degradation by abruptly increasing tree mortality, but this process remains poorly understood. Here we present, to our knowledge, the first field-based evidence of a tipping point in Amazon forests due to altered fire regimes. Based on results of a large-scale, longterm experiment with annual and triennial burn regimes (B1yr and B3yr, respectively) in the Amazon, we found abrupt increases in fire-induced tree mortality (226 and 462%) during a severe drought event, when fuel loads and air temperatures were substantially higher and relative humidity was lower than long-term averages. This threshold mortality response had a cascading effect, causing sharp declines in canopy cover (23 and 31%) and aboveground live biomass (12 and 30%) and favoring widespread invasion by flammable grasses across the forest edge area (80 and 63%), where fires were most intense (e.g., 220 and 820 kW x m(exp −1)). During the droughts of 2007 and 2010, regional forest fires burned 12 and 5% of southeastern Amazon forests, respectively, compared with less than 1% in nondrought years. These results show that a few extreme drought events, coupled with forest fragmentation and anthropogenic ignition sources, are already causing widespread fire-induced tree mortality and forest degradation across southeastern Amazon forests. Future projections of vegetation responses to climate change across drier portions of the Amazon require more than simulation of global climate forcing alone and must also include interactions of extreme weather events, fire, and land-use change.

MODIS↗

Predicting Fire Susceptibility in the Forests of Amazonia

Although fire is the single greatest threat to the ecological integrity of Amazon forests, our ability to predict the occurrence of Amazon forest fires is rudimentary. Part of the difficulty encountered in making such predictions is the remarkable capacity of Amazon forests to tolerate drought by tapping moisture stored in deep soil. These forests can avoid drought-induced leaf shedding by withdrawing moisture to depths of 8 meters and more. Hence, the absorption of deep soil moisture allows these forests to maintain their leaf canopies following droughts of several months duration, thereby maintaining the deep shade and high relative humidity of the forest interior that prevents these ecosystems from burning. But the drought- and fire-avoidance that is conferred by this deep-rooting phenomenon is not unlimited. During successive years of drought, such as those provoked by El Nino episodes, deep soil moisture can be depleted, and drought-induced leaf shedding begins. The goal of this project was to incorporate this knowledge of Amazon forest fire ecology into a predictive model of forest flammability.

Nepstad, Daniel C.↗

Land-use in Amazonia and the Cerrado of Brazil: State of Knowledge and GIS Database

We have assembled datasets to strengthen the LargeScale Biosphere Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia (LBA). These datasets can now be accessed through the Woods Hole Research Center homepage (www.whrc.org), and will soon be linked to the Pre-LBA homepages of the Brazilian Space Research Institute's Center for Weather and Climate Prediction (Instituto de Pesquisas Espaciais, Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos Climaticos, INPE/CPTEC) and through the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Distributed Active Archive Center (ORNL/DMC). Some of the datasets that we are making available involved new field research and/or the digitization of data available in Brazilian government agencies. For example, during the grant period we conducted interviews at 1,100 sawmills across Amazonia to determine their production of sawn timber, and their harvest intensities. These data provide the basis for the first quantitative assessment of the area of forest affected each year by selective logging (Nepstad et al, submitted to Nature). We digitized the locations of all of the rural households in the State of Para that have been mapped by the Brazilian malaria combat agency (SUCAM). We also mapped and digitized areas of deforestation in the state of Tocantins, which is comprised largely of savanna (cerrado), an ecosystem that has been routinely excluded from deforestation mapping exercises.

Nepstad, Daniel C.↗

Completing below-ground carbon budgets for pastures, recovering forests, and mature forests of Amazonia

This progress report covers the following efforts initiated for the year: year-round monthly soil CO2 flux measurements were started in both primary and secondary forests and in managed and degraded pastures; root sorting and weighing has begun and all four ecosystems at Paragominas have been analyzed through samples; regional modeling of soil water dynamics and minimum rooting depth has been done and the RADAMBRASIL soils database has been digitized and a 20 year record of the precipitation for the region has been produced, along with a hydrological ('bucket-tipping') model that will run within a GIS framework; prototype tension lysimeters have been designed and installed in soil pits to begin assessing the importance of DOC as a source of organic matter in deep soils; and many publications, listed in this document, have resulted from this year's research. Two of the papers published are included with this annual report document.

Davidson, Eric A.↗

Human impacts on soil carbon dynamics of deep-rooted Amazonian forests

Deforestation and logging degrade more forest in eastern and southern Amazonia than in any other region of the world. This forest alteration affects regional hydrology and the global carbon cycle, but our current understanding of these effects is limited by incomplete knowledge of tropical forest ecosystems. It is widely agreed that roots are concentrated near the soil surface in moist tropical forests, but this generalization incorrectly implies that deep roots are unimportant in water and C budgets. Our results indicate that half of the closed-canopy forests of Brazilian Amazonic occur where rainfall is highly seasonal, and these forests rely on deeply penetrating roots to extract soil water. Pasture vegetation extracts less water from deep soil than the forest it replaces, thus increasing rates of drainage and decreasing rates of evapotranspiration. Deep roots are also a source of modern carbon deep in the soil. The soils of the eastern Amazon contain more carbon below 1 m depth than is present in above-ground biomass. As much as 25 percent of this deep soil C could have annual to decadal turnover times and may be lost to the atmosphere following deforestation. We compared the importance of deep roots in a mature, evergreen forest with an adjacent man-made pasture, the most common type of vegetation on deforested land in Amazonia. The study site is near the town of Paragominas, in the Brazilian state of Para, with a seasonal rainfall pattern and deeply-weathered, kaolinitic soils that are typical for large portions of Amazonia. Root distribution, soil water extraction, and soil carbon dynamics were studied using deep auger holes and shafts in each ecosystem, and the phenology and water status of the leaf canopies were measured. We estimated the geographical distribution of deeply-rooting forests using satellite imagery, rainfall data, and field measurements.

Nepstad, Daniel C.↗

Completing below-ground carbon budgets for pastures, recovering forests, and mature forests of Amazonia

The objective of this grant was to complete below-ground carbon budgets for pastures and forest soils in the Amazon. Profiles of radon and carbon dioxide were used to estimate depth distribution of CO2 production in soil. This information is necessary for determining the importance of deep roots as sources of carbon inputs. Samples were collected for measuring root biomass from new research sites at Santana de Araguaia and Trombetas. Soil gases will be analyzed for CO2 and (14)CO2, and soil organic matter will be analyzed for C-14. Estimates of soil texture from the RADAMBRASIL database were merged with climate data to calculate soil water extraction by forest canopies during the dry season. In addition, a preliminary map of areas where deep roots are needed for deep soil water was produced. A list of manuscripts and papers prepared during the reporting periods is given.

Davidson, Eric A.↗