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Newes, E.

Publications and source records attributed to Newes, E..

Overview of the Biomass Scenario Model

Biofuels are promoted in the United States through legislation, as one part of an overall strategy to lessen dependence on imported energy as well as to reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases (Office of the Biomass Program and Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, 2008). For example, the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA) mandates 36 billion gallons of renewable liquid transportation fuel in the U.S. marketplace by the year 2022 (U.S. Government, 2007). Meeting the volumetric targets has prompted an unprecedented increase in funding for biofuels research, much of it focused on producing ethanol and other fuel types from cellulosic feedstocks as well as additional biomass sources (such as oil seeds and algae feedstock). In order to help propel the biofuels industry, the U.S. government has enacted a variety of incentive programs (including subsidies, fixed capital investment grants, loan guarantees, vehicle choice credits, and corporate average fuel economy standards) -- the short-and long-term ramifications of which are not well understood. Efforts to better understand the impacts of incentive strategies can help policy makers to develop a policy suite which will foster industry development while reducing the financial risk associated with government support of the nascent biofuels industry.

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Overview of Aviation Fuel Markets for Biofuels Stakeholders

This report is for biofuels stakeholders interested the U.S. aviation fuel market. Jet fuel production represents about 10% of U.S. petroleum refinery production. Exxon Mobil, Chevron, and BP top producers, and Texas, Louisiana, and California are top producing states. Distribution of fuel primarily involves transport from the Gulf Coast to other regions. Fuel is transported via pipeline (60%), barges on inland waterways (30%), tanker truck (5%), and rail (5%). Airport fuel supply chain organization and fuel sourcing may involve oil companies, airlines, airline consortia, airport owners and operators, and airport service companies. Most fuel is used for domestic, commercial, civilian flights. Energy efficiency has substantially improved due to aircraft fleet upgrades and advanced flight logistic improvements. Jet fuel prices generally track prices of crude oil and other refined petroleum products, whose prices are more volatile than crude oil price. The single largest expense for airlines is jet fuel, so its prices and persistent price volatility impact industry finances. Airlines use various strategies to manage aviation fuel price uncertainty. The aviation industry has established goals to mitigate its greenhouse gas emissions, and initial estimates of biojet life cycle greenhouse gas emissions exist. Biojet fuels from Fischer-Tropsch and hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids processes have ASTM standards. The commercial aviation industry and the U.S. Department of Defense have used aviation biofuels. Additional research is needed to assess the environmental, economic, and financial potential of biojet to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate long-term upward price trends, fuel price volatility, or both.

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Biomass Scenario Model Documentation: Data and References

The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model that represents the entire biomass-to-biofuels supply chain, from feedstock to fuel use. The BSM is a complex model that has been used for extensive analyses; the model and its results can be better understood if input data used for initialization and calibration are well-characterized. It has been carefully validated and calibrated against the available data, with data gaps filled in using expert opinion and internally consistent assumed values. Most of the main data sources that feed into the model are recognized as baseline values by the industry. This report documents data sources and references in Version 2 of the BSM (BSM2), which only contains the ethanol pathway, although subsequent versions of the BSM contain multiple conversion pathways. The BSM2 contains over 12,000 total input values, with 506 distinct variables. Many of the variables are opportunities for the user to define scenarios, while others are simply used to initialize a stock, such as the initial number of biorefineries. However, around 35% of the distinct variables are defined by external sources, such as models or reports. The focus of this report is to provide insight into which sources are most influential in each area of the supply chain.

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Transportation Energy Futures Series. Projected Biomass Utilization for Fuels and Power in a Mature Market

The viability of biomass as transportation fuel depends upon the allocation of limited resources for fuel, power, and products. By focusing on mature markets, this report identifies how biomass is projected to be most economically used in the long term and the implications for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and petroleum use. In order to better understand competition for biomass between these markets and the potential for biofuel as a market-scale alternative to petroleum-based fuels, this report presents results of a micro-economic analysis conducted using the Biomass Allocation and Supply Equilibrium (BASE) modeling tool. The findings indicate that biofuels can outcompete biopower for feedstocks in mature markets if research and development targets are met. The BASE tool was developed for this project to analyze the impact of multiple biomass demand areas on mature energy markets. The model includes domestic supply curves for lignocellulosic biomass resources, corn for ethanol and butanol production, soybeans for biodiesel, and algae for diesel. This is one of a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency project initiated to pinpoint underexplored strategies for abating GHGs and reducing petroleum dependence related to transportation.

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