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Newman, Lauri K.

Publications and source records attributed to Newman, Lauri K..

14 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2019

Nasa Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis Updated Requirements Architecture

The NASA Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) program has been performing routine on-orbit satellite conjunction risk analysis for unmanned NASA spacecraft since 2005, and has developed a robust operations procedure and set of recommended best practices for operational conjunction assessment. However, a number of recent developments in Space Situational Awareness and commercial space operations conduct, such as the immanent deployment of much more sensitive space sensing systems and the launching of much larger satellite constellations, have begun to challenge these standard collision risk parameters and calculations. In response CARA has pursued a multi-year evaluation initiative to re-examine risk assessment algorithms and techniques, to develop needed improvements, and to assemble analysis-based operational requirements. This paper gives an overview of the principal parts of the Conjunction Assessment (CA) risk assessment process used at CARA, outlines the technical challenges that each part presents, surveys the possible solutions, and then indicates which particular solution is being recommended for NASA.

Newman, Lauri K.↗
NASA NTRS2019

NASA CA Operations Devolution: Status Update

What is Devolution? Devolution is a spreading of CA (Conjunction Assessment) operations responsibilities to mission FOTs (Flight Operations Teams): Permits efficiencies in handling the increased workload caused by Space Fence and large constellations; Missions given more flexibility in choosing specific approach to CA requirements that resonates best with their particular needs; CARA (Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis) retains Agency oversight through an established NASA Standard - will establish requirements for devolved CA preparations, processing, and operations conduct. Devolution is a PROPOSED paradigm under consideration by SMD (Space Missions Directorate): Number of activities required before Agency-level decision can be rendered; Agency requirements established via approved CA Standard; Operational experience testimony from two separate pilot programs; After these activities complete, decision will be made whether devolution is a feasible option for missions; CARA is recommending devolution to exist as an option for missions.

conjunction↗
NASA NTRS2016

Operational Implementation of a Pc Uncertainty Construct for Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis

Earlier this year the NASA Conjunction Assessment and Risk Analysis (CARA) project presented the theoretical and algorithmic aspects of a method to include the uncertainties in the calculation inputs when computing the probability of collision (Pc) between two space objects, principally uncertainties in the covariances and the hard-body radius. The output of this calculation approach is to produce rather than a single Pc value an entire probability density function that will represent the range of possible Pc values given the uncertainties in the inputs and bring CA risk analysis methodologies more in line with modern risk management theory. The present study provides results from the exercise of this method against an extended dataset of satellite conjunctions in order to determine the effect of its use on the evaluation of conjunction assessment (CA) event risk posture. The effects are found to be considerable: a good number of events are downgraded from or upgraded to a serious risk designation on the basis of consideration of the Pc uncertainty. The findings counsel the integration of the developed methods into NASA CA operations.

assessment↗
NASA NTRS2015

Predicting Space Weather Effects on Close Approach Events

The NASA Robotic Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) team sends ephemeris data to the Joint Space Operations Center (JSpOC) for conjunction assessment screening against the JSpOC high accuracy catalog and then assesses risk posed to protected assets from predicted close approaches. Since most spacecraft supported by the CARA team are located in LEO orbits, atmospheric drag is the primary source of state estimate uncertainty. Drag magnitude and uncertainty is directly governed by atmospheric density and thus space weather. At present the actual effect of space weather on atmospheric density cannot be accurately predicted because most atmospheric density models are empirical in nature, which do not perform well in prediction. The Jacchia-Bowman-HASDM 2009 (JBH09) atmospheric density model used at the JSpOC employs a solar storm active compensation feature that predicts storm sizes and arrival times and thus the resulting neutral density alterations. With this feature, estimation errors can occur in either direction (i.e., over- or under-estimation of density and thus drag). Although the exact effect of a solar storm on atmospheric drag cannot be determined, one can explore the effects of JBH09 model error on conjuncting objects' trajectories to determine if a conjunction is likely to become riskier, less risky, or pass unaffected. The CARA team has constructed a Space Weather Trade-Space tool that systematically alters the drag situation for the conjuncting objects and recalculates the probability of collision for each case to determine the range of possible effects on the collision risk. In addition to a review of the theory and the particulars of the tool, the different types of observed output will be explained, along with statistics of their frequency.

Space Weather↗
NASA NTRS2015

NASA Conjunction Assessment Organizational Approach and the Associated Determination of Screening Volume Sizes

NASA is committed to safety of flight for all of its operational assets Performed by CARA at NASA GSFC for robotic satellites Focus of this briefing Performed by TOPO at NASA JSC for human spaceflight he Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) was stood up to offer this service to all NASA robotic satellites Currently provides service to 70 operational satellites NASA unmanned operational assets Other USG assets (USGS, USAF, NOAA) International partner assets Conjunction Assessment (CA) is the process of identifying close approaches between two orbiting objects; sometimes called conjunction screening The Joint Space Operations Center (JSpOC) a USAF unit at Vandenberg AFB, maintains the high accuracy catalog of space objects, screens CARA-supported assets against the catalog, performs OD tasking, and generates close approach data.

Conjunction↗
NASA NTRS2015

Conjunction Assessment Past, Present, and Future

Since 1957, humankind's reliance on the space domain for military, humanitarian, and commercial applications has continued to increase. 1960 first successful use of a meteorological satellite,1963 first use of a geosynchronous communications satellite, 1985 Block I of GPS fielded, 1998 first module of ISS, 2001 first satellite radio broadcast over North America. What you take into space, stays in space: launch vehicle, rocket-bodies, mission-related debris. Debris can also be generated on-orbit: fuel/battery explosions, collisions. Only naturally-occurring retarding effect is orbital decay due to atmospheric drag: some remediation measures available, active debris removal not yet viable option. Because of our reliance on space and the fact that space really isn't limitless, the Big Sky theory is no longer an acceptable risk posture. There have been eight (8) on-orbit collisions reported to date, half of which occurred in the last 10 years.

Assessment↗
NASA NTRS2015

Recommended Screening Practices for Launch Collision Aviodance

The objective of this document is to assess the value of launch collision avoidance (COLA) practices and provide recommendations regarding its implementation for NASA robotic missions. The scope of this effort is limited to launch COLA screens against catalog objects that are either spacecraft or debris. No modifications to manned safety COLA practices are considered in this effort. An assessment of the value of launch COLA can be broken down into two fundamental questions: 1) Does collision during launch represent a significant risk to either the payload being launched or the space environment? 2) Can launch collision mitigation be performed in a manner that provides meaningful risk reduction at an acceptable level of operational impact? While it has been possible to piece together partial answers to these questions for some time, the first attempt to comprehensively address them is documented in reference (a), Launch COLA Operations: an Examination of Data Products, Procedures, and Thresholds, Revision A. This report is the product of an extensive study that addressed fundamental technical questions surrounding launch collision avoidance analysis and practice. The results provided in reference (a) will be cited throughout this document as these two questions are addressed. The premise of this assessment is that in order to conclude that launch COLA is a value-added activity, the answer to both of these questions must be affirmative. A "no" answer to either of these questions points toward the conclusion that launch COLA provides little or no risk mitigation benefit. The remainder of this assessment will focus on addressing these two questions.

recommended screening practicies luanch collision ↗
NASA NTRS2014

Evolution and Implementation of the NASA Robotic Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis Concept of Operations

Reacting to potential on-orbit collision risk in an operational environment requires timely and accurate communication and exchange of data, information, and analysis to ensure informed decision-making for safety of flight and responsible use of the shared space environment. To accomplish this mission, it is imperative that all stakeholders effectively manage resources: devoting necessary and potentially intensive resource commitment to responding to high-risk conjunction events and preventing unnecessary expenditure of resources on events of low collision risk. After 10 years of operational experience, the NASA Robotic Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) is modifying its Concept of Operations (CONOPS) to ensure this alignment of collision risk and resource management. This evolution manifests itself in the approach to characterizing, reporting, and refining of collision risk. Implementation of this updated CONOPS is expected to have a demonstrated improvement on the efficacy of JSpOC, CARA, and owner/operator resources.

operations↗
NASA NTRS2014

Middle Man Concept for In-Orbit Collision Risks Mitigation, CAESAR and CARA Examples

This paper describes the conjunction analysis which has to be performed using data provided by JSpOC. This description not only demonstrates that Collision Avoidance is a 2- step process (close approach detection followed by risk evaluation for collision avoidance decision) but also leads to the conclusion that there is a need for a Middle Man role. After describing the Middle Man concept, this paper introduces two examples with their similarities and particularities: the American civil space effort delivered by the NASA CARA team (Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis) and the French response CAESAR (Conjunction Assessment and Evaluation Service: Alerts and Recommendations). For both, statistics are presented and feedbacks discussed. All together, around 80 satellites are served by CARA and/or CAESAR. Both processes regularly evolve in order either to follow JSpOC upgrades or to improve analysis according to experience acquired during the past years.

conjunction↗
NASA NTRS2009

A Single Conjunction Risk Assessment Metric: the F-Value

The Conjunction Assessment Team at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center provides conjunction risk assessment for many NASA robotic missions. These risk assessments are based on several figures of merit, such as miss distance, probability of collision, and orbit determination solution quality. However, these individual metrics do not singly capture the overall risk associated with a conjunction, making it difficult for someone without this complete understanding to take action, such as an avoidance maneuver. The goal of this analysis is to introduce a single risk index metric that can easily convey the level of risk without all of the technical details. The proposed index is called the conjunction "F-value." This paper presents the concept of the F-value and the tuning of the metric for use in routine Conjunction Assessment operations.

Frigm, Ryan Clayton↗
NASA NTRS2009

NASA SSA for Robotic Missions

This viewgraph presentation reviews NASA's Space Situational Awareness (SSA) activities as preparation for robotic missions and Goddard's role in this work. The presentation includes the preparations that Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) has made to provide consolidated space systems protection indluding consolidating GSFC support for Orbit Debris analysis, conjunction assessment and collision avoidance, commercial and foreign support, and protection of GSFC managed missions.

Newman, Lauri K.↗