Engineering topics

Nicholson, James R.

Publications and source records attributed to Nicholson, James R..

6 records

NASA NTRS1991

Surface wind convergence as a short-term predictor of cloud-to-ground lightning at Kennedy Space Center: A four-year summary and evaluation

Since 1986, USAF forecasters at NASA-Kennedy have had available a surface wind convergence technique for use during periods of convective development. In Florida during the summer, most of the thunderstorm development is forced by boundary layer processes. The basic premise is that the life cycle of convection is reflected in the surface wind field beneath these storms. Therefore the monitoring of the local surface divergence and/or convergence fields can be used to determine timing, location, longevity, and the lightning hazards which accompany these thunderstorms. This study evaluates four years of monitoring thunderstorm development using surface wind convergence, particularly the average over the area. Cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning is related in time and space with surface convergence for 346 days during the summers of 1987 through 1990 over the expanded wind network at KSC. The relationships are subdivided according to low level wind flow and midlevel moisture patterns. Results show a one in three chance of CG lightning when a convergence event is identified. However, when there is no convergence, the chance of CG lightning is negligible.

Watson, Andrew I.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Surface wind convergence as a short-term predictor of cloud-to-ground lightning at Kennedy Space Center

Cloud-to-ground lightning is a significant forecast problem at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) in Florida. In this study, cloud-to-ground lightning is related in time and space to surface convergence for 244 days during the convective seasons of 1985 and 1986 over a 790 sq-km network at KSC. The method uses surface convergence, particularly the average over the area, to identify the potential for new, local thunderstorm growth, and it can be used to specify the likely time and location of lightning during the life cycle of the convection. A threshold of 75 x 10 to the -6th/s change in divergence is the main criterion used to define a convergence event, and a set of flashes less than 30 min apart defines a lightning event. Time intervals are found from the study to be approximately 1 h from beginning convergence to first flash, and another hour to the end of lightning. The influences of low-level winds and midlevel moisture in determining the location and intensity of convection are discussed. This is the first known dynamically-based forecast method for lightning prediction. The technique, currently in use at KSC, has been shown to be a systematic, quantitative tool for predicting lightning onset in situations where conventional analysis tools such as radar and satellite are limited.

Watson, Andrew I.↗

NASA NTRS1990

A preliminary evaluation of short-term thunderstorm forecasting using surface winds at Kennedy Space Center

In 1987 NASA expanded its surface wind network onto the mainland west of Kennedy Space Center, increasing the network area from nearly 800 sq km to over 1600 sq km. Here, the results of this expansion are reported using three years of wind and lightning information collected during June, July, August, and September of 1987, 1988, and 1989. The divergence-lightning relationships and the importance of wind direction are addressed, and the verification is summarized.

Watson, Andrew I.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Expert knowledge techniques applied to the analysis of electric field mill data

NASA operates a network of ground-based electric field mills at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) to identify clouds which might be an electrical hazard to space vehicle prior to and during launch or to the various ground operations performed at the center. Artificial intelligence has been used to develop an expert system for analyzing electric field mill data. The application of the system to expert system to small thunderstorms at KSC is shown.

Nicholson, James R.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Atmospheric sciences program at NASA Kennedy Space Center

A very keen awareness of the impact of lightning threat on ground operations exists at NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC) because of the high frequency of thunderstorm occurrences in Florida. The majority of thunder events occur in the summertime, initiated by solar heating of the land. Merritt Island, where KSC is located, produces its own thunderstorms under light flow conditions; because some are small, their importance might be unappreciated at first glance. The impress of these facts, and others of pertinence, on the KSC atmospheric sciences development program will be discussed, priorities enumerated, and a review of development projects presented.

Nicholson, James R.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Lightning threat extent of a small thunderstorm

The concern for safety of the personnel at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) has caused NASA to promulgate strict safety procedures requiring either termination or substantial curtailment when ground lightning threat is believed to exist within 9.3 km of a covered operation. In cases where the threat is overestimated, in either space or time, an opportunity cost is accrued. This paper describes a small thunderstorm initiated over the KSC by terrain effects, that serves to exemplify the impact such an event may have on ground operations at the Center. Data from the Air Force Lightning Location and Protection System, the AF/NASA Launch Pad Lightning Warning System field mill network, radar, and satellite imagery are used to describe the thunderstorm and to discuss its impact.

Nicholson, James R.↗