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Norman G. Loeb

Publications and source records attributed to Norman G. Loeb.

15 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2023

CERESMIP: A Climate Modeling Protocol to Investigate Recent Trends in the Earth's Energy Imbalance

The Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) project has now produced over two decades of observed data on the Earth's Energy Imbalance (EEI) and has revealed substantive trends in both the reflected shortwave and outgoing longwave top-of-atmosphere radiation components. Available climate model simulations suggest that these trends are incompatible with purely internal variability, but that the full magnitude and breakdown of the trends are outside of the model ranges. Unfortunately, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 6) (CMIP6) protocol only uses observed forcings to 2014 (and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) projections thereafter), and furthermore, many of the ‘observed' drivers have been updated substantially since the CMIP6 inputs were defined. Most notably, the sea surface temperature (SST) estimates have been revised and now show up to 50% greater trends since 1979, particularly in the southern hemisphere. Additionally, estimates of short-lived aerosol and gas-phase emissions have been substantially updated. These revisions will likely have material impacts on the model-simulated EEI. We therefore propose a new, relatively low-cost, model intercomparison, CERESMIP, that would target the CERES period (2000-present), with updated forcings to at least the end of 2021. The focus will be on atmosphere-only simulations, using updated SST, forcings and emissions from 1990 to 2021. The key metrics of interest will be the EEI and atmospheric feedbacks, and so the analysis will benefit from output from satellite cloud observation simulators. The Tier 1 request would consist only of an ensemble of AMIP-style simulations, while the Tier 2 request would encompass uncertainties in the applied forcing, atmospheric composition, single and all-but-one forcing responses. We present some preliminary results and invite participation from a wide group of models.

CMIP6↗
NASA NTRS2023

Quantification of Global Cloud Properties with Use of Spherical Harmonic Functions

Spherical harmonic (SH) expansion is a useful tool to study any variable that has valid values at all latitudes and longitudes. The variable can be quantified as a sum of different spherical harmonic components, which are the spherical harmonic functions multiplied by their expansion coefficients. We find that the SH components of cloud radiative effect (CRE) have correlations with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Hadley Circulation (HC). In particular, the expansion degree 2 (l = 2) SH power spectrum component anomaly of CRE is strongly correlated with ENSO. The two dipole patterns appearing in the l = 2 SH component anomaly map can be reasonably explained by a known mechanism of ENSO’s impact on cloud properties. The l = 3 and l = 5 SH power spectrum components are correlated with HC intensity, whereas the l = 6 and l = 8 components are correlated with HC latitudinal widths. In ENSO warm and cold phases, the HC-correlated SH components have opposite anomalies, which suggests the impact of ENSO on HC. This study illustrates that the SH expansion technique provides a different perspective to study the impacts of large-scale atmospheric circulation on global cloud properties and radiative effects.

clouds↗
NASA NTRS2019

Decomposing Shortwave Top-of-Atmosphere and Surface Radiative Flux Variations in Terms of Surface and Atmospheric Contributions

Adiagnostic tool for determining surface and atmospheric contributions to interannual variations in top-of-atmosphere (TOA) reflected shortwave (SW) and net downward SW surface radiative fluxes is introduced. The method requires only upward and downward radiative fluxes at the TOA and surface as input and therefore can readily be applied to both satellite-derived and model-generated adiative fluxes. Observations from the Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) Energy Balanced and Filled (EBAF) Edition 4.0 product show that 81% of the monthly variability in global mean reflected SW TOA flux anomalies is associated with atmospheric variations (mainly clouds),6%is from surface variations, and 13% is from atmosphere–surface covariability. Over the Arctic Ocean, most of the variability in both reflected SW TOA flux and net downward SW surface flux anomalies is explained by variations in sea ice and cloud fraction alone (r2 5 0.94). Compared to CERES, variability in two reanalyses—the ECMWF interim reanalysis (ERA-Interim) and NASA’s Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2)—show large differences in the regional distribution of variance for both the atmospheric and surface contributions to anomalies in net downward SW surface flux. For MERRA-2 the atmospheric contribution is 17% too large compared to CERES while ERA-Interim underestimates the variance by 15%. The difference is mainly due to how cloud variations are represented in the reanalyses. The overall surface contribution in both ERA-Interim and MERRA-2 is smaller than CERES EBAF by 15% for ERA-Interim and 58% for MERRA-2, highlighting limitations of the reanalyses in representing surface albedo variations and their influence on SW radiative fluxes.

Norman G. Loeb↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Impact of COVID-Global Shutdown on Earth's Radiation Budget

Climate is fueled by how much of the sun’s energy is absorbed by Earth. Changes in aerosol emissions have a direct impact how much solar energy is absorbed under clear-sky conditions, which occurs roughly one-third of the time globally. Aerosol emission changes can also indirectly influence clouds and further alter solar energy absorption. In this presentation, we examine the impact of the COVID-19 global shutdown on Earth’s radiation budget at global and regional scales and compare it with other changes that have had an influence on Earth's radiation budget during the past 20 years—including policy-related emission controls, wildfire events and changes in sea-ice extent in polar regions. We use a novel analysis technique together with data from NASA instruments on the Terra, Aqua and Aura satellites and reanalysis data from MERRA-2. We also compare results with state-of-the-art general circulation models that have been nudged to reanalysis data (winds, air temperature and surface 25 pressure) at all levels. Our preliminary results show that the largest COVID-19 impact occurs regionally over the East Asian Marginal Seas, just off the coast of China. We find a 30% reduction in aerosol optical depth according to the MODIS instrument, and an 8% reduction in reflected solar radiation according to the CERES radiation budget instrument. The climate model simulations show remarkable consistency with the observations and furthermore show no evidence of an indirect effect on cloud properties.

Norman G. Loeb↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Evaluating Twenty-Year Trends in Earth’s Energy Flows from Observations

Recent satellite and ocean in-situ observations indicate a doubling of Earth’s Energy Imbalance (EEI) since 2005 that is a consequence of anthropogenic forcing, internal variability, and climate feedbacks. In this study, we follow-up with an assessment of how other components of Earth’s energy budget have changed since 2000 and how well these can be tracked. Specifically, we use top-of-atmosphere and surface observations from the Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) and calculations of atmospheric divergence of energy transport from ERA-5 to determine the change in total surface flux along with its radiative and turbulent heat flux components. We also assess trends in ocean heat uptake for different ocean layers using various ocean reanalysis datasets. We compare trends derived using various observational and modeling approaches to assess how robust the derived trends are. Our analysis is restricted to global, hemispheric and regional spatial scales and annual mean and seasonal timescales.

CERES↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

State of CERES

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Norman G. Loeb↗