Engineering topics

Nutaro, James J.

Publications and source records attributed to Nutaro, James J..

6 records

DOE OSTI2024

Oak Ridge National Laboratory's Strategic Research and Development Insights for Digital Twins

Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) is pleased to provide our response to the NITRD RFI on Digital Twins Research and Development. Digital twins are virtual representations of physical systems, leveraging real-time data to simulate and predict behaviors. ORNL is advancing digital twin technology across various disciplines, including neutron scattering, networking, science ecosystems, supercomputing, secure facilities, mobility technologies, materials design and discovery, power systems, fusion reactors, biological sciences, and earth observation. These efforts aim to enhance scientific research, operational efficiency, and decision-making processes. ORNL facilities, such as the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR), Grid-C, Spallation Neutron Source (SNS), and Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF), provide the infrastructure to develop and demonstrate these digital twin technologies. In this document, we lay out key challenges, research gaps, and future opportunities based on our experience with digital twins that aim to serve as useful contributions towards a National Digital Twins R&D Strategic Plan. In the remaining document, we address nine of the thirteen topic areas specified in the RFI.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Cascading Transformer Failure Probability Model Under Geomagnetic Disturbances

This paper develops a probabilistic model to assess the cascading failure of transformers in an electric power grid experiencing geomagnetic disturbances caused by a solar storm. We propose a model in which the probability of failure is a function of the intensity of the solar storm, the physical properties of the transformer, the geographical location of the transformer, and the flow of electrical power. We demonstrate the proposed model using the IEEE 14-bus system and several notional solar storms. The model quickly computes the initial and cascading failure probabilities of the transformers in the system as a first step towards quantifying the risks posed by future solar storms.

Shukla, Pratishtha↗

DOE OSTI2023

Prospect Theory and the Favorite Long-Shot Bias in Baseball

We provide new evidence of a favorite long-shot bias for bets placed on baseball games. Our analysis uses the difference of mean run differentials as an observable proxy for the probability of a team to win. When baseball is viewed through this proxy, we see that bettors believe favorites are less likely to win than they actually are and long-shots more likely. This result is consistent with prospect theory, which suggests that large and small probabilities are poorly estimated when making decisions with risk.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Race conditions and data partitioning: risks posed by common errors to reproducible parallel simulations

When parallel algorithms for simulation were introduced in the 1970s, their development and use interested only experts in parallel computation. This circumstance changed as multi-core processors became commonplace, putting a parallel computer into the hands of every modeler. A natural outcome is growing interest in parallel simulation among persons not intimately familiar with parallel computing. At the same time, parallel simulation tools continue to be developed with the implicit assumption that the modeler is knowledgeable about parallel programming. The unintended consequence is a rapidly growing number of users of parallel simulation tools that are unlikely to recognize when the interaction of race conditions, partitioning strategies, and simultaneous action in their simulation models make results non-reproducible, thereby calling into question the validity of conclusions drawn from the simulation data. Here, we illustrate the potential dangers of exposing parallel algorithms to users who are not experts in parallel computation with example models constructed using existing parallel simulation tools. By doing so, we hope to refocus tool developers on usability, even if this new focus incurs loss of some performance.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Quantized State Integrator With Second Order Errors Over Monotonic Segments

We introduce a novel quantized state integration method that is analogous to the explicit, second order Runge-Kutta technique. A feature of this method is that, for a single differential equation over an interval where the solution is monotonic, it exhibits an error proportional to the square of the integration quantum. We offer a theoretical proof of this behavior and demonstrate it with a numerical example. At the same time, an extension of the method to a system with input causes the errors to become proportional to the integration quantum. The latter observation fits established theory; the former appears to be a new result that might offer new insights into the construction of quantized state integration methods.

Mahawattege, Rasika↗

DOE OSTI2021

Time managed virtualization for simulating systems of systems

Software is an integral part of almost every non-trivial system. Yet simulation technologies to understand how software affects system performance lag behind what is available to understand physical behavior. This is not surprising. An abstract model of software tells us what it is supposed to do, not what it actually does. In this respect software is very different from a physical system. Kirchhoff’s laws predict the behavior of an electrical circuit with great precision. The mathematics of fluids do an adequate job of anticipating how a wing will perform in flight. Only the software itself, observed in operation, can tell us how it behaves.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗