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O'Brien, T. Paul

Publications and source records attributed to O'Brien, T. Paul.

Space Radiation and Plasma Effects on Satellites and Aviation: Quantities and Metrics for Tracking Performance of Space Weather Environment Models

The Community Coordinated Modeling Center has been leading communitywide space science and space weather model validation projects for many years. These efforts have been broadened and extended via the newly launched International Forum for Space Weather Modeling Capabilities Assessment (https://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/assessment/). Its objective is to track space weather models' progress and performance over time, a capability that is critically needed in space weather operations and different user communities in general. The Space Radiation and Plasma Effects Working Team of the afore mentioned International Forum works on one of the many focused evaluation topics and deals with five different subtopics (https://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/assessment/topics/radiationall.php) and varieties of particle populations: Surface Charging from tens of eV to 50keV electrons and internal charging due to energetic electrons from hundreds keV to several MeVs. Single event effects from solar energetic particles and galactic cosmic rays (several MeV to TeV), total dose due to accumulation of doses from electrons (>100 keV) and protons (>1 MeV) in a broad energy range, and radiation effects from solar energetic particles and galactic cosmic rays at aviation altitudes. A unique aspect of the Space Radiation and Plasma Effects focus area is that it bridges the space environments, engineering, and user communities. The intent of the paper is to provide an overview of the current status and to suggest a guide for how to best validate space environment models for operational/engineering use, which includes selection of essential space environment and effect quantities and appropriate metrics.

Zheng, Yihua

Rationales for the Lightning Launch Commit Criteria

Since natural and triggered lightning are demonstrated hazards to launch vehicles, payloads, and spacecraft, NASA and the Department of Defense (DoD) follow the Lightning Launch Commit Criteria (LLCC) for launches from Federal Ranges. The LLCC were developed to prevent future instances of a rocket intercepting natural lightning or triggering a lightning flash during launch from a Federal Range. NASA and DoD utilize the Lightning Advisory Panel (LAP) to establish and develop robust rationale from which the criteria originate. The rationale document also contains appendices that provide additional scientific background, including detailed descriptions of the theory and observations behind the rationales. The LLCC in whole or part are used across the globe due to the rigor of the documented criteria and associated rationale. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) adopted the LLCC in 2006 for commercial space transportation and the criteria were codified in the FAA's Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) for Safety of an Expendable Launch Vehicle (Appendix G to 14 CFR Part 417, (G417)) and renamed Lightning Flight Commit Criteria in G417.

Lightning Advisory Panel

Near-Earth Space Radiation Models

Review of models of the near-Earth space radiation environment is presented, including recent developments in trapped proton and electron, galactic cosmic ray and solar particle event models geared toward spacecraft electronics applications.

Xapsos, Michael A.

Analysis of Proposed 2007-2008 Revisions to the Lightning Launch Commit Criteria for United States Space Launches

Ascending space vehicles are vulnerable to both natural and triggered lightning. Launches under the jurisdiction of the United States are generally subject to a set of rules called the Lightning Launch Commit Criteria (LLCC) (Krider etal., 1999; Krider etal., 2006). The LLCC protect both the vehicle and the public by assuring that the launch does not take place in conditions posing a significant risk of a lightning strike to the ascending vehicle. Such a strike could destroy the vehicle and its payload, thus causing failure of the mission while releasing both toxic materials and debris. To assure safety, the LLCC are conservative and sometimes they may seriously limit the ability of the launch operator to fly as scheduled even when conditions are benign. In order to safely reduce the number of launch scrubs and delays attributable to the LLCC, the Airborne Field Mill (ABFM II) program was undertaken in 2000 - 2001. The effort was directed to collecting detailed high-quality data on the electrical, microphysical, radar and meteorological properties of thunderstorm-associated clouds. Details may be found in Dye et al., 2007. The expectation was that this additional knowledge would provide a better physical basis for the LLCC and allow them to be revised to be less restrictive while remaining at least as safe. That expectation was fulfilled, leading to significant revisions to the LLCC in 2003 and 2005. The 2005 revisions included the application of a new radar-derived quantity called the Volume Averaged Height Integrated Radar Reflectivity (VAHIRR) in the rules governing flight through anvil clouds. VAHIRR is the product of the volume averaged radar reflectivity times the radardetermined cloud thickness. The reflectivity average extends horizontally 5 km west, east, south and north of a point along the flight track and vertically from the 0 C isotherm to the top of the radar cloud. This region is defined as the "Specified Volume". See Dye et al., 2006 and Merceret et al., 2006 for a more thorough description of VAHIRR. The units are dBZ km (not dBZ per kilometer) and the threshold is 10 dBZ km. It is safe to fly through an anvil cloud for which VAHIRR is below this threshold everywhere along the flight track as long as (1) the entire cloud within 5 nmi. (9.26 km) of the flight track is colder than 0 C, (2) the points at which VAHIRR must be evaluated are at least 20 km from any active convective cores and recent lightning, and (3) the radar return is not being attenuated within the Specified Volume around those points.

Dye, James E.

Solar Wind Drivers for Steady Magnetospheric Convection

Steady magnetospheric convection (SMC) also known as convection bays, is a particular mode of response of the magnetosphere to solar wind coupling. It is characterized by convection lasting for times longer than a typical substorm recovery during which no substorms expansions can be identified. It is generally believed that the solar wind must be unusually steady for the magnetosphere to enter this state. However, most previous studies have assumed this is true and have used such conditions to identify events. In a preliminary investigation using only the AE and AL indices to select events we have shown that these expectations are generally correct. SMC events seem to be associated with slow speed solar wind and moderate, stable IMF Bz. In this report we extend our previous study including additional parameters and the time variations in various statistical quantities. For the intervals identified as SMCs we perform a detailed statistical analysis of the properties of different solar wind variables. We compare these statistics to those determined from all data, and from intervals in which substorms but not SMCs are present. We also consider the question of whether substorms are required to initiate and terminate an SMC. We conclude that the intervals we have identified as SMC are likely to be examples of the original Dungey concept of balanced reconnection at a pair of x-lines on the day and night side of the Earth.

McPherron, Robert L.